Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

[RANDY IN INDY]

Cueto, league average? Really?

[nate]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

Cueto, league average? Really?

Yes, really.

I think that's pretty valuable. Especially for what he gets paid.

[RANDY IN INDY]

You're saying Cueto's stuff is league average, right?

[nate]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

You're saying Cueto's stuff is league average, right?

I think the things he does that are solely within his control are league average to slightly better than league average.

This is a good thing.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by nate

I think the things he does that are solely within his control are league average to slightly better than league average.

This is a good thing.

Just trying to get an idea of how you think.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kheidg-

Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

I don't. Most projection systems have Bailey, Leake and Cueto all pretty close to each other in ERA and one system (the one that was the best for the 2011 season) has Bailey behind only Latos in ERA for Reds starters (though Chapman also is ahead of Bailey but it comes as a reliever).

Bailey walks fewer batters and strikes out more than Cueto and Leake (he and Bailey are actually walking the same number of guys). That is a really good start towards being better.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I agree with Doug here. I firmly think that most of RZ is highly underestimating what Homer will and can do. HIGHLY underestimating.

[RANDY IN INDY]

I'm with you guys. I think Homer can put it together.

[puca]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I assume you guys all watch six innings and then shut off the TV.

Because the late innings will be very frustrating for Reds fans under your view.

You don't want Bailey in the bullpen. You don't want Chapman in the bullpen. You don't want any starter in the bullpen, except Francis who strikes out a guy every two innings, maybe.

The Reds have a problem. They have too many starters and too few relievers. Yet you want Bailey in the rotation, Chapman in the minors.

I guess it's Ron Mahay time. Or Andrew Brackman. Or Jeff Francis, a starter who doesn't fan anybody.

And there are two relief vacancies. So it won't only be one AAA reliever. It will be two.

Will be very interesting to see Chapman strike out 13 in a AAA game while the Reds give up five runs in the seventh inning with some AAA pitcher going. Louisville lost tonight in the final four; looks like they will have some excitement during the baseball season in the view of some posters.

Whatever. Maybe Reds will trade Arroyo.

I'm much more worried who is going to be taking every 5th start come July/August than who is the 6th man out of the pen in April/May. There is no starting pitching depth sitting in AAA if Chapman or Bailey is sent to the pen. I would not be comfortable with either Chapman or Bailey being used as swing/long men to start the season and then being thrust back into the rotation when someone inevitiably gets hurt. For the same reason I would hate to see Bailey be traded. If you have to keep Chapman in the majors then it is Arroyo that shoudl be moved to the pen. He has the experience to bounce between rotation and bullpen.

[Tony Cloninger]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree with Doug here. I firmly think that most of RZ is highly underestimating what Homer will and can do. HIGHLY underestimating.

And when he does it...I will be happy, but for now...all you have is someone who's "peripherals" are good thus he must be better than he actually shows....but he never really is.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger

And when he does it...I will be happy, but for now...all you have is someone who's "peripherals" are good thus he must be better than he actually shows....but he never really is.

Better than what he shows? Do you mean ERA?

[Tony Cloninger]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Better than what he shows? Do you mean ERA?

He is not a consistent ...from start to start ..you do not know which guy is going to show up. He reminds me of Bruce Bereyni...without the heavy bouts of wildness.

[fearofpopvol1]

The number 1 problem with Bailey, point blank, is health. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a very good pitcher. But until he's able to stay healthy, he gets put below Cueto in my opinion.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

The number 1 problem with Bailey, point blank, is health. If he can stay healthy, he'll be a very good pitcher. But until he's able to stay healthy, he gets put below Cueto in my opinion.

I can certainly get on board with this.

[Caveat Emperor]

Bailey in the rotation, Chapman to Louisville until he gets a couple 6+ IP outings under his belt to prove he can do it.