If he keeps it up, when should Billy Hamilton be promoted?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

There is no difference. The situation with Chapman and Hamilton are the same. They are stars. People want to see them. They will be Reds regardless of position, of team need, of other prospects, whatever.

That's why the Reds gave Joey $225 million. They see him as an anchor, a star, an attraction. His baseball skills are great, but this Reds management wants revenue. It wants fan interest. That revenue will ultimately breed baseball success.

The Reds gave Joey Votto that money because he is one of the best players in baseball. Not because he is an attraction.

Right now, Chapman is a reliever. He has control problems, we don't know if he will be a great starter.

But he is a star. The Reds will find a role for him. He will be here as long as he can throw missiles and he wants to stay.

Chapman is a star reliever, not because the fans love him, but because he is a dominant reliever.

If there are better prospects than Hamilton, they will change his position. Billy could easily wind up in LF. They want him to run. They think he will attract fans, interest, and revenue and they are probably correct.

What happens if there are better players everywhere on the field that he plays? You implied earlier that Hamilton would still get the edge because the fans want to see him. I am saying that they wouldn't still play him if he wasn't the best fit.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The Reds gave Joey Votto that money because he is one of the best players in baseball. Not because he is an attraction.


Chapman is a star reliever, not because the fans love him, but because he is a dominant reliever.


What happens if there are better players everywhere on the field that he plays? You implied earlier that Hamilton would still get the edge because the fans want to see him. I am saying that they wouldn't still play him if he wasn't the best fit.

The Reds didn't agree to pay Joey Votto the huge sum of $225 million simply because he is an excellent baseball player. The Brewers didn't pay Fielder. The Cards didn't pay Pujols. They didn't need to, but the Reds did need Votto.

The Reds invested big money in Joey because he is an anchor player who will help the team attract fans, TV money, other good players, and the like -- which they desperately need. I guarantee you that the Reds agreed to this huge contract based on an evaluation of future $$$ much more than OPS.

Chapman is a star reliever because he isn't a starter. Many here wanted him at AAA to become a starter. IMO he was never going to be in AAA this year, except maybe for a couple of weeks. Why? He is the kind of star player the Reds want to draw fans at GABP and produce revenue.

There are many ways of evaluating who is a "better player." It's not all based on some obscure website that stats junkies use. If Billy Hamilton stays healthy and can steal 75 bases in a MLB season, I guarantee you, he will be deemed the "better player." He will play regardless of whether Didi Gregorius or some other player has a higher OBP or whatever.

It is not all based on FIP, and OBA, and BABIP, and OPS. Who is "better" is subjective. For a franchise like the Reds, looking to increase revenue, looking to become a major force in its industry, certain kinds of players will be prioritized. Hamilton is such a player.

[OnBaseMachine]

Baseball Prospectus on Hamilton:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16736

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

The Reds didn't agree to pay Joey Votto the huge sum of $225 million simply because he is an excellent baseball player. The Brewers didn't pay Fielder. The Cards didn't pay Pujols. They didn't need to, but the Reds did need Votto.

The Reds invested big money in Joey because he is an anchor player who will help the team attract fans, TV money, other good players, and the like -- which they desperately need. I guarantee you that the Reds agreed to this huge contract based on an evaluation of future $$$ much more than OPS.

Chapman is a star reliever because he isn't a starter. Many here wanted him at AAA to become a starter. IMO he was never going to be in AAA this year, except maybe for a couple of weeks. Why? He is the kind of star player the Reds want to draw fans at GABP and produce revenue.

There are many ways of evaluating who is a "better player." It's not all based on some obscure website that stats junkies use. If Billy Hamilton stays healthy and can steal 75 bases in a MLB season, I guarantee you, he will be deemed the "better player." He will play regardless of whether Didi Gregorius or some other player has a higher OBP or whatever.

It is not all based on FIP, and OBA, and BABIP, and OPS. Who is "better" is subjective. For a franchise like the Reds, looking to increase revenue, looking to become a major force in its industry, certain kinds of players will be prioritized. Hamilton is such a player.

I disagree with just about everything you said here. I am just going to leave it at that. I am tired of arguing.

[Jamz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Where am I underestimating him? What numbers were incorrect? I am up for the discussion, but tell me where you are disagreeing with me on his numbers.

I never said anything about disagreeing about his numbers. You said that he wasn't on the same level as Votto and Bruce as a prospect and I was just pointing out that, thusfar this year, he has actually been more productive.

Hamilton is fast, but he hit .194 on infield groundballs in Low-A. That number is going to get worse each season as he faces better fielders with more range, better fields, better arms and better first baseman.

These are the facts this year:

Billy Hamilton has reached on eight infield singles. He has been thrown out by infielders 14 times. When Billy Hamilton hits the ball on the ground to an infielder, and the infielder fields the ball cleanly, Billy Hamilton is hitting .364.*

A nice link of factoids about B-Ham: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16736

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Jamz

I never said anything about disagreeing about his numbers. You said that he wasn't on the same level as Votto and Bruce as a prospect and I was just pointing out that, thusfar this year, he has actually been more productive.

Ok, sorry about that. I thought you were referring to my future projection for him. As for Hamilton, I will just say two things.... it is one month and it is in the California League. Even if he does keep it up, he is not in the same class of a hitter as those two guys though. Those guys are in scoring position every time they step to the plate.

Billy Hamilton has reached on eight infield singles. He has been thrown out by infielders 14 times. When Billy Hamilton hits the ball on the ground to an infielder, and the infielder fields the ball cleanly, Billy Hamilton is hitting .364.*

We know that won't last. Hamilton isn't going to get any faster than he is right now. Last year on infield ground balls he hit .194, which is incredibly high (Deion Sanders hit .150-something on infield groundballs in his career for a nice comparison). When he gets to the Majors, he isn't going to be hitting .200, much less .364 on infield ground balls. The fields are better (meaning less iffy hops) as are the fielders (both making the play and scooping any questionable throws to first base).

[Jamz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Ok, sorry about that. I thought you were referring to my future projection for him. As for Hamilton, I will just say two things.... it is one month and it is in the California League. Even if he does keep it up, he is not in the same class of a hitter as those two guys though. Those guys are in scoring position every time they step to the plate.

They are completely different classes of hitters though. The most important thing for Hamilton is to just get on base -- once he is there he causes so many problems for the other team in just the disruption from him being there that it becomes a valuable weapon. While those two are in scoring position every time they get to hack at a ball; Hamilton is in scoring position any time he makes it to 1st pretty much. That's why you have the wRC+ stat on fangraphs...and right now it's showing that Hamilton creates run production for his team on a very high level that matches guys like Votto and Bruce. He just creates it with his speed rather than with exceptional hitting (though right now his hitting has been very good...and as a switch hitter it is coming along nicely.)

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Jamz

They are completely different classes of hitters though. The most important thing for Hamilton is to just get on base -- once he is there he causes so many problems for the other team in just the disruption from him being there that it becomes a valuable weapon. While those two are in scoring position every time they get to hack at a ball; Hamilton is in scoring position any time he makes it to 1st pretty much. That's why you have the wRC+ stat on fangraphs...and right now it's showing that Hamilton creates run production for his team on a very high level that matches guys like Votto and Bruce. He just creates it with his speed rather than with exceptional hitting (though right now his hitting has been very good...and as a switch hitter it is coming along nicely.)

I agree with you in premise. Hamilton is in scoring position every time he gets on. The three guys are expected to do two entirely different things. RC or any derivative of it on the minor league level is useless toward future projection.

I think Hamilton has a chance to be a 5 win player the MLB level, which is an All Star level and with the right counting numbers maybe an MVP type of candidate. I just think there is a giant gap between where his game is now, and where his game needs to be to even be an average hitter at the MLB level, much less what I envision he could be one day.

Right now, at least from what I have seen from him between last year in Dayton and in the spring showcase this year, Hamilton struggles to keep his weight back and is often lunging forward on his front foot as he swings. That isn't something you can do at the MLB level at all. When he keeps his weight back, I like his swing. He simply doesn't do it very often at this point.

[DirtyBaker]

Let him mash in Bakersfield. He was pretty good in Dayton, but not knocking the cover off the ball like he is now. I want to see him get confidence - he's only 21. If he keeps OPS over 1.000 through the all star break, yeah he ought to move up to AA, but I think at some point he'll have a dry spell. At some point in 2013 he should see AAA.

If Reds organization takes their time, eventually Phillips may eventually need to move to 3rd base as he ages, and Hamilton should be ready for the 2B job if that move happens in 3-4 years.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hamilton is fast, but he hit .194 on infield groundballs in Low-A. That number is going to get worse each season as he faces better fielders with more range, better fields, better arms and better first baseman.

What's the "normal" batting average on infield groundballs?
Not disagreeing, just wondering what the norm is.
Edit, I see you say Deion was .150, that's a pretty good comparison.

Honestly, I think when Billy H is ready. They are going to make room for him. Stubbs or Cozart will be traded if need be.
He will play. I agree with KC that he's the flashy player that gives the marketing team goosebumps.
That said, I don't think a pinch runner for the last month of the season is going to make that much of an impact, so I probably wouldn't call him up. Even a runner as good as Hamilton. Now if the Reds think his bat is good enough this year to get a little playing time, then go ahead and call him up (but I think that's a long shot this year).

There's already a thread about how this club really isn't that exciting to watch this year.. They will make room for Hamilton when he's ready. No doubt in my mind.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

Baseball Prospectus on Hamilton:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16736

This can't be right:

And Billy Hamilton scored the walk-off run on April 20 on a sacrific fly. To the second baseman.

That's like one of those "Chris Denorfia Facts" we were all making up back in the day.

[membengal]

If you want to read good things about Billy Hamilton, check out Baseball Prospectus. I have to go elsewhere to read about Hamilton because Doug is so insistent on running the kid down.

By the way, his first three weeks in Bakersfield have been kinda without precedent.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by membengal

If you want to read good things about Billy Hamilton, check out Baseball Prospectus. I have to go elsewhere to read about Hamilton because Doug is so insistent on running the kid down.

By the way, his first three weeks in Bakersfield have been kinda without precedent.

Will do. That's an exciting read. Please can we have him in the MLB this year?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

If you want to read good things about Billy Hamilton, check out Baseball Prospectus. I have to go elsewhere to read about Hamilton because Doug is so insistent on running the kid down.

By the way, his first three weeks in Bakersfield have been kinda without precedent.

Yep, I am insistent on running him down by saying he could be a future All Star and MVP candidate.

Dude is off to a great start. He is walking at a rate like he has never done before. His strikeout rate hasn't improved over what his career has shown. His swing is still very questionable and needs plenty of work.

Simply because I don't think he is the best player on the planet right now doesn't mean I am insistent on tearing him down. Do yourself a favor, go to youtube and search Billy Hamilton. Watch the videos I have uploaded of him. Look at his swings. Look at how many times he is out on his front foot and flailing at the baseball with an armsy swing. Do you really think that is going to work at the MLB level? He has had that kind of swing every time I have seen him play. It isn't there every swing, but it shows up in nearly every at bat. He needs work. That doesn't mean I hate him. It doesn't mean I don't want him to succeed. It doesn't mean I don't think he can succeed. It means I think he needs to continue working on his swing and make improvements before he will be ready for the Major Leagues.

[NeilHamburger]

Is Hamilton faster then Deion Sanders was in his prime?

If not I'm just curious how all those infield hits will play out in the pros. This isn't a knock, I'm just legit wondering whether those infield hits are due to speed or if MLB caliber infielders would gun him down.

Bottom line, his speed is great, and will be a tremendous weapon. But, he needs to be able to play defense (we saw with EE how frustrating offense but no D can be) and he needs to be able to hit (see Sanders, Deion). I hope he turns out, but he seems to me to be the type of prospect with some potential fatal flaws.