If he keeps it up, when should Billy Hamilton be promoted?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by NeilHamburger

Is Hamilton faster then Deion Sanders was in his prime?

If not I'm just curious how all those infield hits will play out in the pros. This isn't a knock, I'm just legit wondering whether those infield hits are due to speed or if MLB caliber infielders would gun him down.

Bottom line, his speed is great, and will be a tremendous weapon. But, he needs to be able to play defense (we saw with EE how frustrating offense but no D can be) and he needs to be able to hit (see Sanders, Deion). I hope he turns out, but he seems to me to be the type of prospect with some potential fatal flaws.

There is a difference between the errors that Hamilton makes and the ones EE makes. Hamilton gets to baseballs that other shortstops don't touch. So you can live with his errors. Edwin, without the errors, had merely solid range, so when you added the errors, it wasn't all that good. Put Hamilton on either side of the second base bag and he is among the most rangy players in all of the game.

With Deion Sanders and the speed, I don't think anyone on here can say one way or the other, but I imagine that it is very close either way. As I noted earlier, Hamilton hit just .196 on infield groundballs for Dayton last year. Hamilton isn't going to be getting faster and the defenses and fields will be getting better. His infield hit rate is going to dry up some compared to what it has been in his career. What he has done this year on infield groundballs is just insane. There is no reason to think it will continue or even come close to continuing at anything near the rate it has been for April.

Stat of the day: Billy Hamilton has 61% more steals than the guy in 2nd place in the minor leagues.

[membengal]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Yep, I am insistent on running him down by saying he could be a future All Star and MVP candidate.

Dude is off to a great start. He is walking at a rate like he has never done before. His strikeout rate hasn't improved over what his career has shown. His swing is still very questionable and needs plenty of work.

Simply because I don't think he is the best player on the planet right now doesn't mean I am insistent on tearing him down. Do yourself a favor, go to youtube and search Billy Hamilton. Watch the videos I have uploaded of him. Look at his swings. Look at how many times he is out on his front foot and flailing at the baseball with an armsy swing. Do you really think that is going to work at the MLB level? He has had that kind of swing every time I have seen him play. It isn't there every swing, but it shows up in nearly every at bat. He needs work. That doesn't mean I hate him. It doesn't mean I don't want him to succeed. It doesn't mean I don't think he can succeed. It means I think he needs to continue working on his swing and make improvements before he will be ready for the Major Leagues.

Whatever, doug. The first three weeks from him have been historically awesome, and anytime anyone tries to note that that's cool, you rush in to point everything that is wrong with him.

I am reasonably certain that he won't bat .400 all year, but this has been a crazy interesting stretch. I might have been interested in reading just what he is doing that is different from last year, but I won't find that on here, as all I can read on here from you is how he isn't all that as an athlete (heck, he may not even be an athlete) and it will be lucky if he ever puts on one pound.

In any event, it was fun, yes FUN, to read a little more about the three weeks he has had from BP. Because this is silly fun. Unlike most of the Hamilton talk on here which is deadly deadly serious.

By the way, if Stubbs had EVER had a stretch like this anywhere in the minors, you would have started 37 threads about it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

Whatever, doug. The first three weeks from him have been historically awesome, and anytime anyone tries to note that that's cool, you rush in to point everything that is wrong with him.

I am reasonably certain that he won't bat .400 all year, but this has been a crazy interesting stretch. I might have been interested in reading just what he is doing that is different from last year, but I won't find that on here, as all I can read on here from you is how he isn't all that as an athlete (heck, he may not even be an athlete) and it will be lucky if he ever puts on one pound.

In any event, it was fun, yes FUN, to read a little more about the three weeks he has had from BP. Because this is silly fun. Unlike most of the Hamilton talk on here which is deadly deadly serious.

By the way, if Stubbs had EVER had a stretch like this anywhere in the minors, you would have started 37 threads about it.

I don't think I ever started a thread about Stubbs in the minors once. All I did was tell people he was better than they thought ht was after they ragged on him.

As for Hamilton, when people start talking about him being in the Majors right now, sorry, but I am not going to go all rainbows and butterflies. I am going to state my opinion on him.

I never said he isn't an athlete. In fact, on multiple occasions I said he is a very good athlete. I can show them to you if you want, but you will probably ignore all of it up until the point where I say he isn't a super athlete and write that off as me saying he isn't athletic.

As for what he is doing differently, I stated it within this thread, which you obviously glossed over. He is walking more and his BABIP is .463. The walking part is good and has a chance to hold up. The BABIP is going to plummet into a normal range for him (which is probably somewhere between .330-.360 in the minors due to his pure speed that a lot of minor leaguers simply can't field and throw consistently well enough to get him out).

But go ahead and continue to just take that as me hating on him rather than stating my opinion on what he is right now.

[membengal]

I've lost track, just who on here has been advocating him to the bigs right now?

Straw, meet man.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

I've lost track, just who on here has been advocating him to the bigs right now?

Straw, meet man.

For starters, the original poster of this thread talked about calling him up in September. Maybe not 'right now', but it is pretty darn close.

[Quatitos]

Originally Posted by Jamz

You're underestimating Billy Hamilton again. Although it's hard to compare because of age differences, Billy Hamilton is currently sporting a .500 wOBA and a wRC+ of 216. Both of which neither Votto or Bruce came close to in the minors.

He's not a power hitter, but right now he's showing the ability to be a very effective hitter and an extremely valuable hitter. Hamilton is a top tier prospect for sure. He doesn't need to hit homeruns to be one of the better hitting prospects in the league -- the fact that he can likely leg out almost any infield hit and turn it into 1 or 2 more bases with his speed makes him almost as effective from a pure hitting standpoint.



He only has 1 homerun. His speed can be attributed to his slugging more than anything else.

Sent from my DROID2 using Tapatalk 2

[OGB]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

For starters, the original poster of this thread talked about calling him up in September. Maybe not 'right now', but it is pretty darn close.

I sure did, and I've yet to see someone address the fact that if the Reds are in a tight race for a playoff spot with a week or two left that he wouldn't be unbelievably valuable to the club. Who will get called up in September? Janish? Francis? What will those guys add necessarily? Hamilton gives you a pinch runner that can get into scoring position with a steal and score on any practically any single.

Doug, I know you know more about the ins and outs of baseball than I do, but how are you coming up with Hamilton only having one option left if he gets a September call up? Haven't guys like Janish and Fischer gone back and forth between the bigs and AAA about five times?

Either way, I'm an advocate of promoting him in 6 weeks or so if he's still Red hot. If Gregorious is also playing well, I think he'll be headed to AAA by then.

[OGB]

Promoting him to Pensacola, that is. I've learned I need to be explicit on this message board.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OGB

Doug, I know you know more about the ins and outs of baseball than I do, but how are you coming up with Hamilton only having one option left if he gets a September call up? Haven't guys like Janish and Fischer gone back and forth between the bigs and AAA about five times?

I didn't go back and look at exactly what I said, but I thought I said he will only have one left by the time his general ETA is expected to be, if he is called up this year. He would burn one option to start 2013. He would then burn his second option in 2014 when he was sent down after not making the team. At some point later in the year, maybe, he would get called up to hopefully stay. But at that point, by the time he is ready to play every day, he would only have one option left, so you had better be absolutely willing to go to war with him at that point.

[reds44]

Serious question: is Hamilton running too much right now? Look, we all love the gaudy SB numbers, but the goal is not to steal bases in the minors. Should he dial it back a bit and not kill his legs?

[Jamz]

For what it's worth I enjoy reading your posts and I don't take the same hostile stance that a lot of the others here seem to take of your assessment of Hamilton. No batter is perfect and your analysis is very informative. I have noticed problems with his swing, but his approach has changed a little and it's part of the puzzle that is allowing him to be more successful at the plate. I think he has what it takes to adapt his swing to the majors and learn from the hitting coaches. He's still young and pretty raw -- I don't suspect he'll be up for any period of time until the end of next year at the earliest. I just think that he has the potential to be a star.

Also it would be really nice if he took up an intense study in bunting.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I agree with you in premise. Hamilton is in scoring position every time he gets on. The three guys are expected to do two entirely different things. RC or any derivative of it on the minor league level is useless toward future projection.

I think Hamilton has a chance to be a 5 win player the MLB level, which is an All Star level and with the right counting numbers maybe an MVP type of candidate. I just think there is a giant gap between where his game is now, and where his game needs to be to even be an average hitter at the MLB level, much less what I envision he could be one day.

Right now, at least from what I have seen from him between last year in Dayton and in the spring showcase this year, Hamilton struggles to keep his weight back and is often lunging forward on his front foot as he swings. That isn't something you can do at the MLB level at all. When he keeps his weight back, I like his swing. He simply doesn't do it very often at this point.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Jamz

Also it would be really nice if he took up an intense study in bunting.

He's bunting now about once every 8-10 at-bats.

And it's been incredibly successful when it's a fair ball.

Hamilton, if he were to bunt at the Juan Pierre/ Brett Butler level, would become a legitimate threat to hit .350 at the major league level and still not break a 750 OPS. (Unless, of course, his swing has been revamped, as he was supposedly working on this summer and in Spring Training.) The early returns on that swing are certainly encouraging, to say the least.

With apologies to Mike Trout, Jonathan Singleton, and Wil Myers, at this point, Hamilton has perhaps the gaudiest numbers in minor league baseball. The batting average, the OPS, and the stolen bases together-- especially at a premium position like SS-- make him stand out on the list of ten best.

That may not translate to gaudy numbers in another league, but it's encouraging. Just like the second half of last year (BA over .350, OBP over .400) at Dayton was.

He's absolutely demolishing the California League.

He's showing a BB rate much improved over his career numbers. He's showing a K rate much improved over his career numbers-- five percent better than his time in Dayton and with the Gulf Coast Reds and almost 2% better than Billings. He's showing improved slugging.

If he goes 350/400/450 on the season as a SS and once again steals 100 bases at a high rate, he might be among the top five or six prospects in the game.

That's what has many Red fans super excited about him.

[schmidty622]

I think the best value the Reds are going get out of Hamilton is via his trade value. They should target a team that doesn't have a clear in-system option for their middle infield for an established OF/3B bat. While his speed is certainly wonderful, I don't think it makes up for the deficiency that his bat and defense would bring to the lineup. The kid is not Ricky Henderson. He's not Jose Reyes. His ceiling is probably Chone Figgins (and even then, I don't think he has Chone's modest power) if he can keep his walk rates climbing.

If he keeps up his torrid pace this spring/summer,the Reds should strike this year while his value is at it's highest, and look to move him and a few other prospects near the deadline for something that could actually help the big club over the next few years.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by schmidty622

I think the best value the Reds are going get out of Hamilton is via his trade value. They should target a team that doesn't have a clear in-system option for their middle infield for an established OF/3B bat. While his speed is certainly wonderful, I don't think it makes up for the deficiency that his bat and defense would bring to the lineup.

I think you underestimate his defense. His range will more than make up for his errors. He makes plays on baseballs that other guys can't touch.

[schmidty622]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think you underestimate his defense. His range will more than make up for his errors. He makes plays on baseballs that other guys can't touch.

I get that, although I think his arm negates his range a bit. If he gets to a ball that no one else would, but still launches it into the stands what was that worth? I realize it's not a great metric or anything but those fielding%s are ugly.

When you have Cozart locked in at SS, and Phillips locked in at 2B, with more MLB ready prospects than Hamilton behind them, I just don't see Hamilton finding traction with the big club. Why not get value out of him while he's getting all this press and before his bat gets exposed at the higher levels?