Tony Cingrani #12 on the BA Hot Sheet this week

[dougdirt]

Thanks for that klw. Pretty much lines up with what I have heard, though I have seen a little better reports on his change and slider, though both were still considered below average pitches.

[Caveat Emperor]

Guys like this are where your internal scouts really earn their money -- if your people think he can profile as a starter long-term, you hold onto him and let him develop. If you think he's just going to be a bullpen arm, you polish him up and sell him off to someone who thinks he can start.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

If you think he's just going to be a bullpen arm, you polish him up and sell him off to someone who thinks he can start.

Or you make him the closer and reap rewards with a cheap closer for four to six years, then ship him off for a major haul or draft picks.

Cingrani's a closer candidate as early as next season. As a lefty, he has a chance to be a difference-maker arm, a la Chapman, Bray, or Marshall last season. You want to keep that kind of arm in your system, IMO.

[Caveat Emperor]

I suppose -- I just don't place a huge value on bullpen arms. JJ Hoover cost the Reds Juan Francisco and Alfredo Simon cost the Reds absolutely nothing. Your system should churn out bullpen arms on a fairly regular basis, and you should be able to find guys to round out a pen cheaply on the open market. If you get a guy who you can sell off to someone as a potential #2/#3 starter, reap those rewards.

Heck, you might even make a deal like the Reds did with Travis Wood and bring back actual performance in the bullpen vs. mere potential.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Or you make him the closer and reap rewards with a cheap closer for four to six years, then ship him off for a major haul or draft picks.

Cingrani's a closer candidate as early as next season. As a lefty, he has a chance to be a difference-maker arm, a la Chapman, Bray, or Marshall last season. You want to keep that kind of arm in your system, IMO.

Tough to be a closer without a quality second pitch. I doubt he develops a quality one by next season.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by The Rage

Cueto and Bailey are two completely different pitchers. Bailey has generally stunk early in the season while he waits for his stamina to build up into the "cannon". Cueto was the better "pitchers" prospect, while Bailey the better thrower sans the 2008 mess. Bailey has plenty of heart and determination considering how much he struggles at times early in the year. Just to nab the production they have gotten from him at this point, is very nice.

The injury bug really set Bailey back in that regard. Instead of the surge in velocity and arm speed he would get around Memorial Day, it was shoulder problems. Bailey needs to throw well to max his potential at this point. He is making little strides every year becoming a better pitcher, but he still needs to throw better if you want TOR production. We got a little whiff of that his last start, with the last 2 batters, he turned it up to 95-96, they had no chance.

Health permitting, I wouldn't be surprised if Cueto doesn't fall off in June/July while Bailey turns up the gas.........with Mat Latos. Not a bad deal.

You deal in what might happen. I deal in what has happened.

What has happened is Cueto dominated the league last year and has continued to do so after the league has seen him several times, and including his beginning to this year.

Bailey has his supporters saying "just wait and see" this year or next year for the past 4 or 5 years. And Bailey is fragile.

Sure. Anything CAN HAPPEN. But so far, Cueto has the better consistent stats for his career.

[RED VAN HOT]

The consensus view of Cingrani seems to be that he has a plus fastball and control, but that the absence of consistent secondary pitches is likely to put him in the bullpen.

My question is this. What is it about top HS arms drafted in the first round that makes them profile as future starters? Have they already shown polished secondary pitches? It seems to me that often these kids have earned their high draft status on the basis of plus fastballs and a projectable frame. Are they viewed as having more time to develop their secondary pitches, as opposed to Cingrani who is approaching 23 yo?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

The consensus view of Cingrani seems to be that he has a plus fastball and control, but that the absence of consistent secondary pitches is likely to put him in the bullpen.

My question is this. What is it about top HS arms drafted in the first round that makes them profile as future starters? Have they already shown polished secondary pitches? It seems to me that often these kids have earned their high draft status on the basis of plus fastballs and a projectable frame. Are they viewed as having more time to develop their secondary pitches, as opposed to Cingrani who is approaching 23 yo?

They generally already have above-average velocity and have shown at least a potentially plus breaking ball, though 99% of them are very inconsistent with said breaking ball. They clearly have more time to develop secondary stuff than a 23 year old does.

[New Fever]

Kevin Goldstein on Tony Cingrani:


Cingrani was a third-round pick last year, but that was as a budget-minded senior sign. Because of his age and experience level, a 1.75 ERA in the Pioneer League last year with 80 strikeouts and just six walks in 51 1/3 innings was only enough to generate minimum attention, as scouts saw a future reliever who lacked a consistent breaking ball. Things are starting to change this year, as while pitching in the tough environment of High-A Bakersfield in the Cal League, the 22-year-old has a 0.53 ERA after six starts with 45 strikeouts in 34 innings; he's also limiting the league to a .158 batting average. Cingrani is a unique pitcher, as his three-quarters delivery features an extremely long arm action that almost resembles a trebuchet, but the leverage in his delivery gives him above-average velocity. His fastball sits in the low 90s, touches 95, and he misses just as many bats with a plus changeup that features plenty of deception with the same delivery. His hybrid breaking ball has shown some progress this year, and if it improves to merely average, he's suddenly a very real starting prospect. Either way, because of his age, he should be in Double-A soon.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

[dougdirt]

It is interesting about the change up, because from what I have heard is that he doesn't really trust that pitch and relies more on his breaking ball as his secondary pitch. I can't wait to get a better look at him though either at the end of the month with Bakersfield when they will be on Milb.tv or whenever he gets promoted to Pensacola.

[camisadelgolf]

I heard the same thing. Maybe Kevin (or his people) saw Cingrani on a good day.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I heard the same thing. Maybe Kevin (or his people) saw Cingrani on a good day.

To be fair, just about every report I have seen does say his change up has good potential, just that he hardly throws it. Either way, it shouldn't be too long before we all can get a better look at him either in Bakersfield (via Milb.tv) or in Pensacola (via Milb.tv or some of us in person).

[Scrap Irony]

That BP article is very interesting vis a vis the change.

[RED VAN HOT]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

To be fair, just about every report I have seen does say his change up has good potential, just that he hardly throws it. Either way, it shouldn't be too long before we all can get a better look at him either in Bakersfield (via Milb.tv) or in Pensacola (via Milb.tv or some of us in person).

I hope to see him on the 17th or 18th when the Blaze plays at Lake Elsinore. The scoreboard there does not post pitch speeds, but it is nevertheless apparent when a hitter is fooled by off speed stuff.

[powersackers]

Curious (Read Noob). What is a "secondary pitch" and what defines a breaking ball?

A change up breaks or at least dips at times or is it supposed to be straight, just slower with same arm action as FB? Fastballs and curve balls I can ID fine. Changeups too typically because they are "off speed".


Honestly I think Thom Brennaman just has me seriously confused as anything not a FB is a breaking ball to him I think.