Donald Lutz

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I disagree. But we'll just agree to disagree.

Seen too many guys go from A to AA, and finish a season in AAA and not miss much of a beat, when the triple AAA players went to majors in September callups or before that because of massive injuries to the ml team. Mez is one. Seen others do it. My point is, some guys need to be challenged. Others need to move slower.

My opinion is that Hamilton, Lutz, Cingrani, and maybe Vidal need to be challenged more.

Now, if they are going to permanently move them to a new position, then maybe high A is the way to go.

Duran and Yorman are making it look like moving from A to high A is the most difficult.

We'll agree to disagree.

These guys have had 125 PA's in A+.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Hamilton, Lutz, and possibly Vidal need to be moved up in the next month. They have nothing left to prove in high A. And Bakersfield has 3 of the top 3 of the top 7 California League starting pitchers by e.r.a. (Cingrani, Rogers, Lotzkar). Might as well move Cingrani up too.

Move Hamilton and Lutz to OF permanently.

Maybe not in the next month, but probably by the All-Star Break, assuming they continue to produce at these levels. I think you've identified the right guys that could be due for a promotion.

I'd like to see Hamilton, Lutz, Vidal and Cingrani in AA by midseason.

To make room, I'd like to see Henry Rodriguez and DiDi Gregorius in Louisville. Maybe Cody Puckett and Ryan LaMarre too, although I'm less concerned about them. LaMarre will be 24 years old this year and has a career OPS of .734 in the minor leagues. Unless he finally starts to get some power, he is looking like more of a suspect, and his presence shouldn't block the Reds from moving Hamilton to CF, if that's what they decide what they want to do.

[19braves77]

BP chat question about lutz:

Johnny (SD): I asked KG on twitter, but is Donald Lutz (Reds High A 1B) a legit power prospect or a fringe guy? Already at 10 HRs, albeit in the offense-boosting Cal League

Ben Lindbergh: And he didn't answer you? Man, I'm going to have to talk to that guy. He never answers questions from readers. (That was a joke. He answers a million questions from readers. Literally a million, and 99% of them are about when Anthony Rizzo is going to get called up.)

Here's Kevin's succinct response: "Cal League guy. Scouts aren't impressed." I'm just relaying questions from readers to KG now. This must be what being Twitter feels like.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by 19braves77

Here's Kevin's succinct response: "Cal League guy. Scouts aren't impressed."[/I]

This just seems like lazy analysis to me. The guy has not played very long and did very well in the MW League last year, was protected, and looked great in the Futures game. Obviously he didn't talk to Reds scouts.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg

This just seems like lazy analysis to me. The guy has not played very long and did very well in the MW League last year, was protected, and looked great in the Futures game. Obviously he didn't talk to Reds scouts.

Still has holes in his swing and has a ways to go defensively in the outfield. It is easy to see why scouts aren't really all that impressed. I am sure his power is a 60 or so, but the rest of his game might not have another 50 on it (that would be MLB average) in the OFP reports.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Still has holes in his swing and has a ways to go defensively in the outfield. It is easy to see why scouts aren't really all that impressed. I am sure his power is a 60 or so, but the rest of his game might not have another 50 on it (that would be MLB average) in the OFP reports.

At least you provide some analysis. Instead of "Cal League guy", as if the only reason he's succeeding is because he's in a hitter's league.

I understand it's a chat Q&A, but still seems kind of lazy to me.

[lollipopcurve]

This just seems like lazy analysis to me. The guy has not played very long and did very well in the MW League last year, was protected, and looked great in the Futures game. Obviously he didn't talk to Reds scouts.

Lutz has snuck up on people. Didn't even make Baseball America's top 30 Reds prospects. I think Goldstein will be surprised, too.

[medford]

will Lutz or Hamilton make it to the majors this season? I think we all agree the answer is no.

Will they make it to the majors at the start of next season? I think most agree the answer is no there as well.

Could they make it to the majors by the end of next season? I think some would say yes, they could, but 2014 is more likely unless your talking about a cup of coffee in september.

So if you agree that they're not going to be in the show this season, and very doubtful they're there next season, why rush them? Give both of them a full season in A+, let them work on their defensive issues while (hopefully) continueing to hit at a high clip. let them face the league 3-4 times around, see the same pitcher 3-4 times, force them to adjust to the opponents adjustments. Meanwhile, if they continue to hit at the same rate, you're just polishing up their shine as potential trade bait this summer or over the offseason. Move them up to AA and you risk them facing a drop off in offense while the defensive struggles continue. Scouts might change their tune from "a great offensive talent with work to do on defense" to "great offensive potential, but will they find success against more polished pitchers?"

Hamilton is still relatively new to switch hitting. The more times he gets to do against the same pitchers, the better adept he's going to be at that skill. Lutz still needs to work on OF defense if he's to have any value to this franchise long term outside of a trade. I believe this franchise, particularly under Jim Bowden was too often in a rush to promote guys rather than allowing them to experience the ups & downs of a full season at one level.

[bellhead]

When Lutz moves up to AA he'll need a whole year there, big difference between high A and AA. Most starting pitchers there have a 90 plus fastball and at least one good offspeed pitch. Once he goes through the league there and pitchers make adjustments to him we'll see where he is.

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by medford

will Lutz or Hamilton make it to the majors this season? I think we all agree the answer is no.

Will they make it to the majors at the start of next season? I think most agree the answer is no there as well.

Could they make it to the majors by the end of next season? I think some would say yes, they could, but 2014 is more likely unless your talking about a cup of coffee in september.

So if you agree that they're not going to be in the show this season, and very doubtful they're there next season, why rush them? Give both of them a full season in A+, let them work on their defensive issues while (hopefully) continueing to hit at a high clip. let them face the league 3-4 times around, see the same pitcher 3-4 times, force them to adjust to the opponents adjustments. Meanwhile, if they continue to hit at the same rate, you're just polishing up their shine as potential trade bait this summer or over the offseason. Move them up to AA and you risk them facing a drop off in offense while the defensive struggles continue. Scouts might change their tune from "a great offensive talent with work to do on defense" to "great offensive potential, but will they find success against more polished pitchers?"

Hamilton is still relatively new to switch hitting. The more times he gets to do against the same pitchers, the better adept he's going to be at that skill. Lutz still needs to work on OF defense if he's to have any value to this franchise long term outside of a trade. I believe this franchise, particularly under Jim Bowden was too often in a rush to promote guys rather than allowing them to experience the ups & downs of a full season at one level.

Well said.

All the interest and talk lately about Lutz got me wondering whether he's now the Reds' best LF prospect below AAA (or maybe including AAA).

[mth123]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Lutz has snuck up on people. Didn't even make Baseball America's top 30 Reds prospects. I think Goldstein will be surprised, too.

And there you have it. These guys aren't going to change their tune from what they are trying to sell that isn't even 3 months old. I'd be surprised if they've even looked at Lutz again since they made the rankings in the first place.

I agree with Buckeye, lazy or at least unprepared analysis.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by rgslone

Well said.

All the interest and talk lately about Lutz got me wondering whether he's now the Reds' best LF prospect below AAA (or maybe including AAA).

I don't think there is a question, is there? A suspect at AAA in Phipps, a fringe suspect in AA in Lamarre and a couple international signings who appear to be starting over in Yorman and Duran. Is there even anyone else in the running (unless Hamilton moves to the OF)?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

And there you have it. These guys aren't going to change their tune from what they are trying to sell that isn't even 3 months old. I'd be surprised if they've even looked at Lutz again since they made the rankings in the first place.

I agree with Buckeye, lazy or at least unprepared analysis.

I am sure that KG has talked to scouts who have seen Lutz this year, ones who didn't see him last year. Guys who scout the Cal League aren't often the same ones that scout the Midwest League.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am sure that KG has talked to scouts who have seen Lutz this year, ones who didn't see him last year. Guys who scout the Cal League aren't often the same ones that scout the Midwest League.

Quick question. When a scout watches a game does he fill out a report on every player that plays? Or is he there just scouting certain players?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Quick question. When a scout watches a game does he fill out a report on every player that plays? Or is he there just scouting certain players?

Generally they are there to see specific guys, but they watch everyone and will make notes on other guys if they do something worth making a note on. To be clear though, they are there to see a group of specific guys at this time of year, where as later in the season they may be there for one or two guys specifically just for trade purposes. But at this point in the season, they are probably there watching a handful of guys between the two teams with a lot more interest than the rest of the guys.