Reds Top Prospects June 2012 Edition

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

SO, Doug - is it the philosophy or the type of player they draft? It seems every guy that comes up has the same swing away aggressiveness

It can be all kinds of things. You can't just point to one thing and say 'oh, that is it'.

Mesoraco and Alonso sure have pretty good approaches at the plate. They were developed by the same guys who developed Cozart and Heisey.

[Ohayou]

If my memory serves me correct, I do remember saying Ryan Wright deserves to be ranked closer to the Top 10. Well, look at his numbers now.

Also, everybody seems to be enamored with power hitting prospects like Soto, but it's hard for me to get excited about a guy with a career .318 OBP in the minors. I don't care how young he is.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

Also, everybody seems to be enamored with power hitting prospects like Soto, but it's hard for me to get excited about a guy with a career .318 OBP in the minors. I don't care how young he is.

Yeah, same here. It would be a different story if he were at an up-the-middle position, but a sub-.800 OPS with below-average on-base abilities just isn't going to do anything for me. On the bright side, he seems more patient at the plate than ever. Maybe he's finally coming around with more patience and just hasn't yet gotten used to his new approach.

[bellhead]

After spending days analyzing the Reds farm system I confidently feel we have an arms race on the way over the next two years...

Hitting AAA sometime in the near future...

Lotzkar
Sulbaran
Serrano
Joseph
Mano
Corcino
Cingrani...

French
Rogers
Renken
Pearl

Add in this years draft and the pitching in the minors is looking a lot better than the hitting.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

If my memory serves me correct, I do remember saying Ryan Wright deserves to be ranked closer to the Top 10. Well, look at his numbers now.

Also, everybody seems to be enamored with power hitting prospects like Soto, but it's hard for me to get excited about a guy with a career .318 OBP in the minors. I don't care how young he is.

I don't think anyone is enamored with Soto. Coming off of a 30 HR season he was unranked in Baseball America's Top 10. I had him ranked 10th in the system. John Sickels had him ranked 11th. Our list on the board had him at #9 before the trades.

At the same time, it is hard for me to get excited over a 22 year old in Low A with 1 home run in 235 at bats. He seems like an ok prospect and all, he has an idea at the plate and makes good contact, but he is old for his level and has a sub .800 OPS.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bellhead

After spending days analyzing the Reds farm system I confidently feel we have an arms race on the way over the next two years...


Add in this years draft and the pitching in the minors is looking a lot better than the hitting.

Agreed, although I think the Reds did the right thing in picking bats with three of their first four picks. Hopefully we can add an international FA to the mix (Soler would be great) and the bats should start to catch up eventually.

Lutz, Winker, and Rahier all have the potential to be plus bats at the big league level. Rodriguez, Vidal, and Rosa could be above average for 3B in both the hit tool and power. Admittedly though, all of these guys with the exception of Rodriguez are at least a couple years away from being able to contribute at the big league level, and a lot can change between now and then.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

If my memory serves me correct, I do remember saying Ryan Wright deserves to be ranked closer to the Top 10. Well, look at his numbers now.

Also, everybody seems to be enamored with power hitting prospects like Soto, but it's hard for me to get excited about a guy with a career .318 OBP in the minors. I don't care how young he is.

Agree about Soto. Disagree about Wright. I don't think either player is particularly close to being a top 10 prospect in this system at this point.

David Vidal, who ranked #10 on my list, is the same age as Wright but OPS'd 100 points higher in a higher level (A+ vs. A) this year.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Agreed, although I think the Reds did the right thing in picking bats with three of their first four picks. Hopefully we can add an international FA to the mix (Soler would be great) and the bats should start to catch up eventually.

Lutz, Winker, and Rahier all have the potential to be plus bats at the big league level. Rodriguez, Vidal, and Rosa could be above average for 3B in both the hit tool and power. Admittedly though, all of these guys with the exception of Rodriguez are at least a couple years away from being able to contribute at the big league level, and a lot can change between now and then.

Yea, the next 2 to 3 years the AA and AAA look to be heavy in arms. I like this a lot because arms are better trade chips than position players usually.

[Ohayou]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think anyone is enamored with Soto. Coming off of a 30 HR season he was unranked in Baseball America's Top 10. I had him ranked 10th in the system. John Sickels had him ranked 11th. Our list on the board had him at #9 before the trades.

I meant specifically on this forum. People are overhyping him, just like they did with Francisco, who, BTW, has arguably the worst swing in all of MLB. I can't believe people actually miss him.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the same time, it is hard for me to get excited over a 22 year old in Low A with 1 home run in 235 at bats. He seems like an ok prospect and all, he has an idea at the plate and makes good contact, but he is old for his level and has a sub .800 OPS.

So, he's a late bloomer. Big deal. Cozart spent two years in Low A before moving up, and he was the same age as Wright. As long as he manages to get on base at a steady rate, and scores runs, that's all that really matters. He could probably end up finishing the year in AA if they let him.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

So, he's a late bloomer. Big deal. Cozart spent two years in Low A before moving up, and he was the same age as Wright. As long as he manages to get on base at a steady rate, and scores runs, that's all that really matters. He could probably end up finishing the year in AA if they let him.

Or he simply is an older guy with a good eye who has the skills to succeed against a bunch of raw players. He probably won't continue to get on base at a steady rate if he can't show some power. Pitchers don't walk non power threats all that often because they know they can challenge them with strikes. He is an ok prospect, maybe even a guy sitting in that 20 range, but he isn't near the top 10.

[bellhead]

Benihana,

Maybe in the future you could do a overall top 10, then a hitter/pitchers seperately???

Thanks dude btw

[Ohayou]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Or he simply is an older guy with a good eye who has the skills to succeed against a bunch of raw players. He probably won't continue to get on base at a steady rate if he can't show some power. Pitchers don't walk non power threats all that often because they know they can challenge them with strikes. He is an ok prospect, maybe even a guy sitting in that 20 range, but he isn't near the top 10.

I am not the only one who speaks highly of Wright, y'know, but whatever. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

I am not the only one who speaks highly of Wright, y'know, but whatever. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Who else is speaking highly of him in terms of ranking him near the top 10 in the system?

I am not saying he is some organizational soldier or anything like a Miguel Rojas is. I am just saying that he is a 5th round pick who hasn't done anything to say he should have gone higher than that. There is a reason that the Reds took 4 guys before him last year alone and I doubt you would find hardly anyone in the Reds organization who were to rank him any higher than the 4 guys taken ahead of him last year (Stephenson - not a chance, Rosa - not a chance, Cingrani - not a chance, Kyle MdMcyne - I would listen to an argument on this one).

[lollipopcurve]

IMO, Lamarre, Rogers, Wright and Barnhart are undervalued here. Yorman overvalued.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

IMO, Lamarre, Rogers, Wright and Barnhart are undervalued here. Yorman overvalued.

Rogers, like Soto, is very close to "On the Radar". Barnhart is close to that consideration as well, although I don't know if he'll ever hit enough to start at the big league level (he is up to the task defensively). Wright needs to show more to differentiate himself from the Lohmans, Pucketts and Greenes of the world.

As I mentioned, I see LaMarre having a big league future but not as more than a 4th OF- kind of like a poor man's Heisey with less power.