Will Billy Hamilton be moved to CF?

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Have you checked out what Cozart is hitting lately? He is anything but a 'foundation' piece right now.

.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

Wd. look very good in the 8th spot, with Hamilton leading off in CF.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

.718 OPS. Another home run or 2 and he's easily in the .750 range, which isn't half bad.

Additionally, Cozart has the 10th best WAR in the majors and 6th best in the NL for qualifying SSs. Not too bad.

.718 OPS is not a guy you don't worry about looking for an upgrade on. He has a .297 OBP. right now. I don't think it will continue being that low, but we are talking about a 26 year old who has a sub .300 OBP in the Majors right now as a reason to move someone else. I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

.718 OPS is not a guy you don't worry about looking for an upgrade on. He has a .297 OBP. right now. I don't think it will continue being that low, but we are talking about a 26 year old who has a sub .300 OBP in the Majors right now as a reason to move someone else. I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.

I would certainly agree that the Reds shouldn't move Hamilton because of Cozart (or anyone else) - and I like Cozart. Still, the issue for me isn't that Hamilton is blocked at SS (in my opinion he isn't) - the issue for me is where is he most valuable defensively given his skill set. You can't just say that defensively SS is more important than CF, or vise versa, b/c the point is Hamilton's skill set in particular, not the positions in general. If he realistically projects as an above average SS, leave him there. If, however, he projects better defensively in CF with that speed, then I would say put him there. Maybe the Reds already know the answer, or maybe it's still to early to tell; I just know that when/if his bat is MLB ready I want him hitting lead-off for the Reds - and the sooner the better.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I like Cozart. But he shouldn't be the reason, at least right now, to move anyone off of shortstop.

Completely agree.

[nemesis]

All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by nemesis

All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

Great to see you back here, nemesis!

[rgslone]

On a different Hamilton issue, I was wondering whether his lack of power projection has more to do with his approach or his body/strength? Because if you just look at his body (and I know bat speed, etc. is what's important more so than size), his height/weight ratio is not much different than Eric Davis - and we all know he didn't lack power (although, like a thoroughbred race horse, he did seem somewhat fragile). So, could some of you guys who have seen Hamilton and understand this issue explain to the rest of us why Hamilton doesn't project to be able to hit at least 10 HR per season?

[dougdirt]

I think it has to do with both high size and his approach. Hamilton actually has good bat speed. He just doesn't have the swing or strength to put it over the fence.

[rgslone]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think it has to do with both high size and his approach. Hamilton actually has good bat speed. He just doesn't have the swing or strength to put it over the fence.

Thanks, Doug. But he could certainly improve his strength if it was focused on. So, I'm guessing from your response that his swing is the main long-term reason. If so, is his swing something he or the organization have calculated with the recognition of sacrificing power for a higher contact rate to take advantage of his speed?

[MikeS21]

Maybe its just me, but if Hamilton will concentrate on improving his OBP skills, I'm not sure the power will be much of an issue. Once he gets on base, he will be disruptive enough. The key is getting on base.

If you haven't already, you need to watch the videos mace posted from Baseball Prospectus a few posts back. In one of the videos, Hamilton came to bat with two outs and a runner at 3B. The opposing pitcher WALKED Hamilton because they figured if he hit the ball on the ground, he would probably beat the throw to 1B, thereby allowing the runner at 3B to score. In another video they showed the defense playing Hamilton at double-play depth when no one else was on base. He shoots the ball past the drawn in infield.

That's what is insane about Hamilton. A simple ground ball becomes an infield hit.

The key for the defense will be keeping Hamilton off the bases, and even from making contact and putting the ball on the ground. The higher level of minor league pitchers are going to put the ball in the strike zone because they don't want to walk Hamilton. Hamilton is going to need to do a MUCH better job handling the bat and pitch recognition in the strike zone.

[nemesis]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Great to see you back here, nemesis!

Thank you Plus Plus...

I've been lurking, but, I am on a drilling rig in deep WV most of the time and have no internet, less my phone, which is super slow out there.

Glad to be able to chime in and spend some quality time watching some of my best internet friends side track threads and argue against their own points again...

[OGB]

Originally Posted by nemesis

All I envision seeing Hamilton in CF is his insane speed carrying him deep into the gaps quickly and not hearing another OF calling him off... He is so slightly built I could see a collision with Bruce or a wall easily and multiple times. Things like that would rob a player of his speed over time... And keep him out of the lineup alot...

I see a Eric Davis type of defender in CF (who we all know was moved off of SS).

But I also see a player who would be injured about as easily as could be out there...

I'd absolutely keep him at SS and consider trading Cozart at some point. In 2 years, A 28 year old SS with 20 HR power and GG D with 4 years control might bring a very handsome prospect haul back.

I honestly can't see any logical reason to make that connection. Some people are more frail and injury prone than others. Hamilton's speed doesn't necessarily make him someone whose body will break down easily. Part of learning to play CF is communicating with your corner outfielders. Just because he is fast doesn't mean Billy will ignore that part of the game.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

That's what is insane about Hamilton. A simple ground ball becomes an infield hit.

Except when it doesn't. Hamilton hit under .200 last year on balls hit to infielders. That is against minor leaguers on minor league quality fields. He isn't going to even be that good on grounders in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball into the outfield just like everyone else does. Sure, he probably legs out a few extra hits a year that other speedsters might not. Still needs to put it in the outfield.

With that said, he has been doing that this year just fine.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except when it doesn't. Hamilton hit under .200 last year on balls hit to infielders. That is against minor leaguers on minor league quality fields. He isn't going to even be that good on grounders in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball into the outfield just like everyone else does. Sure, he probably legs out a few extra hits a year that other speedsters might not. Still needs to put it in the outfield.

With that said, he has been doing that this year just fine.

From the video and such I have seen from Hamilton, it just appears to me that the more advanced pitchers (AA and above) are going to eat him alive at the plate. Pitchers are not going to walk him. And because he has no power, chances are they are just going to challenge him right in the strike zone. I'm just not that impressed with how he handles the bat. And honestly, his base-stealing technique isn't all that great, either.

I don't think the Reds ought to give up on this kid yet. He's still plenty young and needs a LOT of seasoning. I don not see the need or the wisdom in fast tracking him for AA just because he is putting up good numbers at A+. Let him play the year out at A+ and work on some things to improve his game before he gets to AA and AAA.