Who's the Reds' top 3B prospect?

[redsof72]

The jump from short-season to low-A is a tough jump. You see guys like Buckley, O'Shea, Silva, Perez, etc. really struggling with that jump. Rosa is not being looked at yet as a candidate to make that jump.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

With Rodriguez, I think his bat could play there, although in an unconventional manner. I think he could be more like a .300/.350/.425 hitter at third base with say 10-15 home runs. His defense isn't as good as that of Vidal, though I haven't seen anything from him this year that suggests he would hurt you there either. My main concern is that he isn't a prototypical 3B and that could lead to him being pigeonholed as a utility guy because of it.

This season, a 775 OPS would rank Henry Rodriguez seventh among all major league 3B. Assuming league average defense, that's got quite a bit of value. Add in that it's obp-heavy, and his wOBA would rank close to the top five.

Rodriguez would be an ideal #2 hitter in the Red lineup. He's a switch-hitter that has little in the way of splits. He's also shown the propensity to hit for power (though that hasn't shown much on the field). A career year of 25 homers wouldn't surprise me; 35 - 40 doubles per year wouldn't either. More importantly, his K rate isn't bad and he's earned a career BA north of 310.

He's also young-- 22 in AA. That may translate into more power as he fills out and begins to play against guys his own age.

Rodriguez is an underrated prospect, IMO, who profiles as a plus 2B or 3B in the major leagues, all things considered. His ceiling is that of an All Star level producer, and his floor is a positive contributor as a utility guy.

I'm guessing, after injury, Rodriguez will need some time in AA to get his bearings. (The hand injury may sap some power as well.) It wouldn't shock me to see Cincinnati move him up to Louisville at the end of the season, as neither team looks likely to make the playoffs.

That 10 - 20 game AAA cup of coffee may allow the Reds to start the major league season with Todd Frazier as 3B starter, and, if he struggles, to move Rodriguez there in May or June.

This depends largely on how Frazier adapts to playing 3B now-- he looks like his power is legitimate, but the strike outs are high. If the Reds think he's more Jay Bruce than Chris Heisey, Ridriguez can settle into the utility role Miguel Cairo now inhabits. Which wouldn't be all bad, certainly. (Though it may stunt his growth as a prospect.)

If Frazier can't find the strike zone moving forward, Rodriguez would be a natural choice to replace him. (With Vidal now playing AA 3B and almost as good a prospect, Rodriguez has a small window to be viewed as starter material.) As stated earlier, his bat makes the entire lineup better. It's part of what the Reds need-- a guy with a good stick who doesn't K too much.

[Vottomatic]

The inability to secure 3B and LF on the ML roster for the Reds has been a headscratcher.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

If Frazier can't find the strike zone moving forward, Rodriguez would be a natural choice to replace him. (With Vidal now playing AA 3B and almost as good a prospect, Rodriguez has a small window to be viewed as starter material.) As stated earlier, his bat makes the entire lineup better. It's part of what the Reds need-- a guy with a good stick who doesn't K too much.

I think you're right on here. I like Frazier, but man this lineup is becoming flooded with 6-7 hole hitters. Two of which are being miscast at the top of the order. If Rodriguez becomes a guy that can get on base at a .340+ clip, that's filling a huge void in the lineup.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I think you're right on here. I like Frazier, but man this lineup is becoming flooded with 6-7 hole hitters. Two of which are being miscast at the top of the order. If Rodriguez becomes a guy that can get on base at a .340+ clip, that's filling a huge void in the lineup.

Not to mention, I think we're seeing the beginning of the end of the 3rd base problem, at least as a serious problem. With Frazier just now starting to get his chance, and Henry coming soon, and then Vidal right behind him, there should be an answer there. Love to see Todd answer the call but his contact rate does worry me. His glove doesn't, though he gets razzed in the 'Zone for it. I just think if he gets set on third and allowed to play there full time he'll be fine with regular play. It's only the bat that concerns me. with Rodriguez its the other way around - I'm pretty sure his bat will play if Todd falters. And Vidal is a third last option arriving right after both. Nice to see some redundancy. I don't see star power at third but there is nice solid everyday player type prospects there.

[mdccclxix]

Infielder Henry Rodriguez is still a few weeks from returning for Double-A Pensacola. He suffered a broken thumb on May 8. He had surgery to repair the fracture. “He’s still working on range of motion,” Graupe said.

[redsmetz]

Before the draft, folks talked a bit about who might get added to this list. Looking over the list, it looks like Seth Mejias-Brean is the only player they took that is listed at 3rd Base. He's been signed already (IIRC). They only took a few other infielders, Brent Peterson (signed), Zachary Vincej (looks to be a senior, so I assume he'll sign) - both SS's - and Jarvis Fowlers, 2B. I don't see anything on Peterson or Vincej that indicate they may move to third, but of course, that's always a possibility.

Thoughts?

[Jamz]

Rahier IMO

[lollipopcurve]

It's an interesting competition at this point. Frazier has exceeded my expectations offensively and defensively (though he's never going to be plus as a glove at 3B). I think Vidal is probably the most gifted offense-defense package, while HRod may have the best bat. Too early to know what they've got in Arias, Rosa or Rahier, but all clearly have some potential. Reds are nicely positioned to plug this hole themselves, IMO, for years to come.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by Jamz

Rahier IMO

Oops, that was a glaring omission on my part of infielders drafted.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Before the draft, folks talked a bit about who might get added to this list. Looking over the list, it looks like Seth Mejias-Brean is the only player they took that is listed at 3rd Base. He's been signed already (IIRC). They only took a few other infielders, Brent Peterson (signed), Zachary Vincej (looks to be a senior, so I assume he'll sign) - both SS's - and Jarvis Fowlers, 2B. I don't see anything on Peterson or Vincej that indicate they may move to third, but of course, that's always a possibility.

Thoughts?

One of the pitchers the Reds took in the later rounds (Jackson Stephens maybe?) is also considered a pretty decent power-hitting 3B prospect, IIRC.

Thought this was interesting about Jarvis Flowers from a draft capsule on another board.

36th Round-2B Jarvis Flowers (HS TX)
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 145 lbs
Bats: L
Throws: R
Ranked #498 in BAs Top 500...

Scouting Report

Aside from being a good high school athlete, there isn’t much known about him. He hasn’t played baseball since the 10th grade.

Still listed 498 or 500 though.

[redsmetz]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

One of the pitchers the Reds took in the later rounds (Jackson Stephens maybe?) is also considered a pretty decent power-hitting 3B prospect, IIRC.

Thought this was interesting about Jarvis Flowers from a draft capsule on another board.

36th Round-2B Jarvis Flowers (HS TX)
Height: 5′ 11″
Weight: 145 lbs
Bats: L
Throws: R
Ranked #498 in BAs Top 500...

Scouting Report

Aside from being a good high school athlete, there isn’t much known about him. He hasn’t played baseball since the 10th grade.

Still listed 498 or 500 though.

Has he taken the same route Rahier took, eschewing his high school teams to play on a club team or something?

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by redsmetz

Has he taken the same route Rahier took, eschewing his high school teams to play on a club team or something?

Dunno. Just said he hasn't played baseball. Must've meda a hek of an impression as a 10th grader. I found something on an Astros message board that said he played CB on his HS football team, but little else.