Can Joey Votto hit .500... - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

RedLegsToday · 06-19-2012, 11:46 AM

... over a whole month of performance.

Past 23 games:

41-82, 6-hr, 12-2b,

slash line of:

.500/.576/.866

I don't know that I've ever seen a player hit this well over this long a period. I know Bonds has put up a whole season with a better ob% and slg%, but, a .500 Batting average over 82 AB's, with tons of power? Crazy.

Even better, this streak of greatness started with a 1-3 performance. Since that day, his batting average has not been under .500 that whole stretch.

Degenerate39 · 06-19-2012, 02:53 PM

That's pretty amazing. Does anyone think Votto could be the next player to hit .400 in a full season?

toledodan · 06-19-2012, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Degenerate39

That's pretty amazing. Does anyone think Votto could be the next player to hit .400 in a full season?

as much as he walks i believe he could.

dougdirt · 06-19-2012, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Degenerate39

That's pretty amazing. Does anyone think Votto could be the next player to hit .400 in a full season?

I don't think we are ever going to see it happen again.

redsmetz · 06-19-2012, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think we are ever going to see it happen again.

I have to agree. Tell me if I'm looking at this incorrectly, but if you assume he plays out the year with roughly the same number AB's, we're about 40% through the season, so figure he'd end with 559 AB's total. To bat .400, he'd need to have 224 hits. He's at 84 hits already, so he'd need another 140 hits. There remains 331 AB's needed to reach the 559 AB's, so he'd need to bat at a .422 clip the rest of the way. Needless to say, that would be extremely daunting. Many concur with Doug's assessment, that we'll probably never see someone hitting .400 again (although we have learned never to say never).

RichRed · 06-19-2012, 03:28 PM

The lack of artificial turf and Joey's relative lack of speed to leg out infield hits will probably preclude .400 from happening. It'll sure be fun to watch him try though.

Superdude · 06-19-2012, 03:55 PM

I'd kind of like to see an alternate universe where Votto abandons the OBP approach and swings early in the count. I would think his K% would come down a whole lot if he didn't take so many pitches, and with his BABIP and home run power, who knows what kind of batting average he could put up. Not that I want to see that happen, but it would certainly be interesting to watch.

Vottomatic · 06-19-2012, 04:42 PM

I think you have to consider who is batting behind him. If the Reds had a stud behind him, he'd probably see even more pitches to hit and do even better.

RedsManRick · 06-19-2012, 05:34 PM

I think the bigger impediment to Joey batting .400 is his mediocre strikeout rate. When George Brett his .390, he had a strikeout rate of 4.3%. When Tony Gwynn hit .394, he had a strikeout rate of 4.0%.

Votto's lowest career strikeout rate is 17.3%, in 2008. That's a lot of guaranteed outs that BABIP can't affect. It would help if he hit for a lot of HRs, but not enough.

Let's look at a generous case. Let's say he gets 600 PA and walks 20% of the time. That leaves 480 at bats, meaning he'd need 192 hits.

Now let's say he strikes out 16% of the time (that's of PA). That's 96 of those at bats which are strikeouts. And let's say he hits 40 HRs. The remaining 344 PA (480-96-40) result in balls. He's already got 40 hits, meaning he needs 152 hits of those 344. That would require a .442 BABIP -- even higher than he's gotten so far. That's with basically everything i his favor.

If we use his career bests in K%, BB% and HR/PA, 104 strikeouts (8 fewer BIPs), 34 HRs (6 fewer hits, 6 more BIP) and 115 BBs (5 more AB, 5 more BIP) -- resulting in a .455 BABIP.

In short, if he could cut down on his Ks significantly, hit HRs more frequnetly than he has this year and walk just as much, all while increasing his BABIP even further, he's got a chance.

oneupper · 06-19-2012, 05:53 PM

What was Ted Williams' BABIP when he hit .406?

RichRed · 06-19-2012, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneupper

What was Ted Williams' BABIP when he hit .406?

According to baseball-reference, .378.

dougdirt · 06-19-2012, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichRed

According to baseball-reference, .378.

Makes sense. Home runs count as hits, but not in BABIP. He hit quite a few home runs that year (37) and he never struck out (27). More home runs than strikeouts is going to lead to a pretty high average.

edabbs44 · 06-19-2012, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichRed

The lack of artificial turf and Joey's relative lack of speed to leg out infield hits will probably preclude .400 from happening. It'll sure be fun to watch him try though.

Didn't stop Ted.

Redhook · 06-19-2012, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I think you have to consider who is batting behind him. If the Reds had a stud behind him, he'd probably see even more pitches to hit and do even better.

True, but moreso I think he'd see more pitches if people were getting on base ahead of him more often.

dougdirt · 06-19-2012, 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Didn't stop Ted.

Ted also had 27 strikeouts and 147 walks..... that guy was, what is the word I am looking for? Good?

06-19-2012, 11:46 AM	#1
RedLegsToday Member Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Fairfield, OH Posts: 519	Can Joey Votto hit .500... ... over a whole month of performance. Past 23 games: 41-82, 6-hr, 12-2b, slash line of: .500/.576/.866 I don't know that I've ever seen a player hit this well over this long a period. I know Bonds has put up a whole season with a better ob% and slg%, but, a .500 Batting average over 82 AB's, with tons of power? Crazy. Even better, this streak of greatness started with a 1-3 performance. Since that day, his batting average has not been under .500 that whole stretch.

06-19-2012, 02:53 PM	#2
Degenerate39 Senor Votto Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 7,847	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... That's pretty amazing. Does anyone think Votto could be the next player to hit .400 in a full season? __________________ Most Vottomatic Player

06-19-2012, 03:28 PM	#6
RichRed My clutch is broken Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Virginia Beach, VA Posts: 3,567	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... The lack of artificial turf and Joey's relative lack of speed to leg out infield hits will probably preclude .400 from happening. It'll sure be fun to watch him try though. __________________ "I can make all the stadiums rock." -Air Supply

06-19-2012, 03:55 PM	#7
Superdude Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 2,430	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... I'd kind of like to see an alternate universe where Votto abandons the OBP approach and swings early in the count. I would think his K% would come down a whole lot if he didn't take so many pitches, and with his BABIP and home run power, who knows what kind of batting average he could put up. Not that I want to see that happen, but it would certainly be interesting to watch.

06-19-2012, 04:42 PM	#8
Vottomatic All work and no play..... Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Lebanon Posts: 6,781	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... I think you have to consider who is batting behind him. If the Reds had a stud behind him, he'd probably see even more pitches to hit and do even better. __________________ "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic. "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

06-19-2012, 05:34 PM	#9
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,915	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... I think the bigger impediment to Joey batting .400 is his mediocre strikeout rate. When George Brett his .390, he had a strikeout rate of 4.3%. When Tony Gwynn hit .394, he had a strikeout rate of 4.0%. Votto's lowest career strikeout rate is 17.3%, in 2008. That's a lot of guaranteed outs that BABIP can't affect. It would help if he hit for a lot of HRs, but not enough. Let's look at a generous case. Let's say he gets 600 PA and walks 20% of the time. That leaves 480 at bats, meaning he'd need 192 hits. Now let's say he strikes out 16% of the time (that's of PA). That's 96 of those at bats which are strikeouts. And let's say he hits 40 HRs. The remaining 344 PA (480-96-40) result in balls. He's already got 40 hits, meaning he needs 152 hits of those 344. That would require a .442 BABIP -- even higher than he's gotten so far. That's with basically everything i his favor. If we use his career bests in K%, BB% and HR/PA, 104 strikeouts (8 fewer BIPs), 34 HRs (6 fewer hits, 6 more BIP) and 115 BBs (5 more AB, 5 more BIP) -- resulting in a .455 BABIP. In short, if he could cut down on his Ks significantly, hit HRs more frequnetly than he has this year and walk just as much, all while increasing his BABIP even further, he's got a chance. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

06-19-2012, 05:53 PM	#10
oneupper Danger is my business! Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Back in Florida Posts: 7,846	Re: Can Joey Votto hit .500... What was Ted Williams' BABIP when he hit .406? __________________ "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." http://dalmady.blogspot.com

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