Thursday June 21, 2012 Minor League Updates

[dougdirt]

Tucker Barnhart went 5-5 with a home run and a double for the Blaze, who won 12-2.

[OesterPoster]

Originally Posted by mace

Billings goes up 2-0 in the fifth on a single by Robert Ramirez and a bunch of wild pitches.

More important was Sal Romano's auspicious debut: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, O BB, 3 K. Two of the three hits were to Socrates Brito. I boldly predict that if he continues to give up the majority of his hits to guys named Socrates, he'll have a pretty nice career.

Now, Dan Langfield makes his debut.

I can't believe all of you missed a golden opportunity to drop a Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure reference here.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OesterPoster

I can't believe all of you missed a golden opportunity to drop a Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure reference here.

The Mustangs announcer dropped a reference or two the other night about it.

[holster10]

I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by holster10

I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.

They know that Bakersfield is Hamilton's best chance at playing in the post-season.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by holster10

I am surprised Billy Hamilton has not yet been promoted. Maybe the Reds brass know something I don't.

Well, what is it that you know?

Hamilton has things he can work on in Bakersfield. There is another very good shortstop in AA and the guy playing shortstop in AAA is also playing very well and also a very good defender. You can't promote a guy up a level unless you have a plan for the guy at his position ahead of him.

Right now, Billy Hamilton is a slap hitter who strikes out 17% of the time he steps to the plate. That isn't good. He has a .116 Isolated power.

Here are the OPS numbers for guys in the Major Leagues with a 16-18% strikeout rate (that is 1% in each direction of Hamilton) and a sub .130 ISoP since the start of 2011 with at least 300 PA's:
.728
.721
.719
.706
.692
.692
.688
.663
.639
.633
.630
.603
.599
.591
.543
.528
.508
.482

The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.

[texasdave]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, what is it that you know?

Hamilton has things he can work on in Bakersfield. There is another very good shortstop in AA and the guy playing shortstop in AAA is also playing very well and also a very good defender. You can't promote a guy up a level unless you have a plan for the guy at his position ahead of him.

Right now, Billy Hamilton is a slap hitter who strikes out 17% of the time he steps to the plate. That isn't good. He has a .116 Isolated power.

Here are the OPS numbers for guys in the Major Leagues with a 16-18% strikeout rate (that is 1% in each direction of Hamilton) and a sub .130 ISoP since the start of 2011 with at least 300 PA's:
.728
.721
.719
.706
.692
.692
.688
.663
.639
.633
.630
.603
.599
.591
.543
.528
.508
.482

The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.

Heck, the Reds have a player with a lower OPS than all of those and he DHed a game. LOL. Sure there's room for Billy. He is a Dusty-type player if I ever saw one. Man is he fast.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The game that Billy Hamilton currently has is not one that is going to translate to the Major Leagues. He has plenty of work to do.

Billy Hamilton's last two halves of baseball as a professional:

Dayton (A-) .333/ .396/ .410/ .806
Bakersfield (A+) .331/ .416/ .447/ .864

Overall, in around 600 ABs:
.332/ .408/ .430/ 838 130 SB/ 29 CS

While I agree that he has plenty to work on, let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Hamilton is, by all accounts aside from yours, a supremely gifted athlete who focused on baseball only two years ago. He learned how to switch hit as a professional (something that's incredibly rare). He makes plays literally no one else makes at his position. His slugging percentage is obviously speed-driven, but a .450 slugging isn't bad, especially from a guy that's at the top of the order, takes a walk, and steals as many bases as Hamilton does.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Billy Hamilton's last two halves of baseball as a professional:

Dayton (A-) .333/ .396/ .410/ .806
Bakersfield (A+) .331/ .416/ .447/ .864

Overall, in around 600 ABs:
.332/ .408/ .430/ 838 130 SB/ 29 CS

While I agree that he has plenty to work on, let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. Hamilton is, by all accounts aside from yours, a supremely gifted athlete who focused on baseball only two years ago. He learned how to switch hit as a professional (something that's incredibly rare). He makes plays literally no one else makes at his position. His slugging percentage is obviously speed-driven, but a .450 slugging isn't bad, especially from a guy that's at the top of the order, takes a walk, and steals as many bases as Hamilton does.

I really think people need to pay more attention to what I say. No where have I said Hamilton is a fantastic athlete. What I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

BA/OBP/SLG in the minors doesn't just translate forward. It doesn't.

Let's take a quick math session here and just project Billy Hamilton based on what we know about him.....

Let's say he has a 9% walk rate and a 17% strikeout rate at the MLB level with 2 home runs that go over the fence. Let's toss in 12 triples and 30 doubles. Sound reasonable? We will also toss in 3 sac bunts, a sac fly and 5 HBP's.

Here is what his line would be given a BABIP between .314 and .347, something that isn't a given at all.

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
650	583	150	30	12	2	58	111	5	3	1	.257	.329	.360	.689	.314
650	583	155	30	12	2	58	111	5	3	1	.266	.337	.369	.706	.325
650	583	160	30	12	2	58	111	5	3	1	.274	.345	.377	.722	.335
650	583	165	30	12	2	58	111	5	3	1	.283	.352	.386	.738	.346

Even with a much higher than you should expect BABIP, Hamilton, with the power/walks/strikeouts supplied, is a .738 OPS bat.

Career BABIP for other known speedsters:

Michael Bourn: .345
Deion Sanders: .298
Rickey Henderson: .305
Bo Jackson: .320
Willy Taveras: .320
Juan Pierre: .314
Dee Gordon: .310
Vince Coleman: .314

What if Hamilton finds his way into most of that group and settles at .315-.320? Then we are looking at a guy who might OPS .680-.700.

Now, there can be plenty of value in that because if it is coming along with a .340 OBP, that works just fine when coupled with his stealing and defense. But my point is more that he has plenty to work on still offensively as well as defensively because his offensive game isn't something that is going to come forward and produce like it has in the minors this year at the MLB level without improvements somewhere in the peripherals (be it losing some strikeouts, adding some power, adding more walks.... something needs to change).

[redsof72]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Of the guys in Rookie ball this year, Romano is the pitcher I think most likely to "go Cingrani" and start rising up through the ranks.

There are a lot of people who really like Romano. Lets see how it plays out but I agree, if his performance bears out some of the things you hear, he will start to draw some attention.

[Scrap Irony]

doug, he's lost strike outs for the past two years. The first half of last season, his K rate was ridiculous. Then, as he gained experience, it lessened greatly. This season, he's again improved his K rate.

He's looking an awful lot like Dexter Fowler, but with better speed. And, at this point, at SS. Fowler had a higher K rate, less power, and hit in the same league. Fowler improved his K rate; why wouldn't Hamilton?

Don't like Fowler? How about Rafael Furcal? Higher K rate again, less slugging. Fewer walks, too. He turned out pretty good, yes?

Brett Gardner is another one, doug. His K rate was (again) much higher than Hamilton's in A+, and his slugging about the same. He's turned into a pretty spectacular major league leadoff hitter.

And those are literally three of the first five guys I looked up. (The others being Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.)

It's one thing to show numbers from the major leagues, but Hamilton is still learning his craft. And he's showing some monumental improvement AND producing at a phenomenal rate.

I get that you don't like him as a prospect nearly as much as... well, anyone else. I get that he needs to do some work. But, fact is, he's showing some pretty solid signs right now, regardless of current IsoSlg or K rate.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I really think people need to pay more attention to what I say. No where have I said Hamilton is a fantastic athlete. What I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

I really don't want to get into this again, but if I were to show you tweets and quotes from respected baseball talent evaluators that commented on his extreme athelticism, would you then admit you were wrong?

[TOBTTReds]

I said is that he isn't a super athlete on par with guys like Josh Hamilton.

I guess I already missed an argument on this. But I respect a lot of things you say, and this is one that I think you are way off on.

Unless you are saying he isn't up there because of his strength. But as far as athleticism goes, it's an 80 if you want to grade it. And he is a far better athlete than Josh Hamilton today.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

BA/OBP/SLG in the minors doesn't just translate forward. It doesn't.

I used to say the same thing about Drew Stubbs' minor-league numbers, but you and others would argue with me.

Hamilton will be fine. If Stubbs can carve out a Big League career based totally on speed (OK and some occasional power) than the even-faster Hamilton will too. The question is how good of a MLB player he will be. Not sure about that, but I have no doubt he'll be in The Show for years. And at least he knows he's a "slap hitter" ... we don't have to worry about him thinking he's some power hitter.

[membengal]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I really don't want to get into this again, but if I were to show you tweets and quotes from respected baseball talent evaluators that commented on his extreme athelticism, would you then admit you were wrong?

No he won't.

Especially not while he's doubling down on his Hamilton sucks narrative.