Will Billy Hamilton be moved to CF?

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Albert Pujols never played a game above A ball. Impact players can do it. Impacting the game in different ways doesn't change much.

Comparing prospects to an eventual Hall of Famer is generally not an accurate way to project how things will work out. For every Albert Pujols, there are a 1000 Paul Householders. Doug is right. Success in single A doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

Pujols is the exception, not the rule.

[klw]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Billy having the best week of his career:

http://blogredmachine.com/2012/06/25...of-his-career/

But is he in the best shape of his life?

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by powersackers

His OBP is now up to .427. He's going to score 130+ runs and steal 150+ bases. That's not confidence, that's embarrassing the rest of the Cali league.

Theo Bowe's OBP is .458 (with a higher BA and SLG to boot) and he already plays the OF. If single-A numbers mean so much, why not call him up instead? Heck, why don't the Padres call up Justin Miller and his .459 OBP or the A's call up Miles Head and his whopping 1149 OPS. Better yet, the Mariners have a guy at High Desert (Julio Morban) with a 1040 OPS even though he is one of the youngest guys in the league.

If Albert Pujols can do it, surely those guys can too!

[krm1580]

I like Billy Hamilton a lot. I think he provides excitement in a farm system devoid of star power and could develop into a good player.

That said the idea that he should somehow be put on the 25 man roster based on the numbers he is putting up in A ball is laughable.

The players listed below are both 21 year olds playing in A ball. Player B is Billy Hamilton, Player A was the record setting stolen base season by Vince Coleman in 1983.

SB/G SB % Slash
Player A 1.28 82.4 .431/.399/.830
Player B 1.28 83.8 .422/.446/.873


I don't think Vince Coleman is a perfect comp for Billy Hamilton because I think Hamilton has a little bit better power, but I think he does provide a fairly good barometer of the type of number to expect from all speed, no power guys as they move up the chain.

[powersackers]

None of the players mentioned from Householder to the other farm guys are making headlines nationwide. Stunning former ballplayers like Maury Wills and others. I don't see why you all don't see how rare and special thus is.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by powersackers

None of the players mentioned from Householder to the other farm guys are making headlines nationwide. Stunning former ballplayers like Maury Wills and others. I don't see why you all don't see how rare and special thus is.

What do national headlines have to do with his ability to hit MLB pitching right now? His speed is rare and special. His game? Not so much, at least right now. If he keeps on learning and improving, maybe one day. But that day is a quite a ways from today.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

What do national headlines have to do with his ability to hit MLB pitching right now?

Ability to hit major league pitching better than Heisey or Cairo is highly likely. National headlines is something none of us have ever seen as it relates to a Reds prospect before. It calls for outside the box thinking. Not linear thinking IMHO.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Ability to hit major league pitching better than Heisey or Cairo is highly likely. National headlines is something none of us have ever seen as it relates to a Reds prospect before. It calls for outside the box thinking. Not linear thinking IMHO.

Billy Hamilton isn't half the prospect that Joey Votto or Jay Bruce were within the last 6 years. Bruce was the best prospect in the game. I don't even have Hamilton as the BEST REDS prospect right now (#2 behind Corcino).

And Hamilton would have absolutely no shot at hitting MLB pitching better than Heisey or Cairo right now. Not a chance. None.

[kaldaniels]

Whatever side of the fence you fall on, I predict his MLB debut will be in the next 450 days. Too much hype to take the long way...fortunately or unfortunately.

[powersackers]

Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

But at this point in time Hamilton couldn't even hit ML pitching well enough to hit it to the SS. And no, he cannot beat out a regular grounder to a ML shortstop.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Votto and Bruce were never covered on a near daily basis by ESPN and USA today etc. Bloggers gush on Hamilton daily. A lineup of 9 Heiseys or Cairo vs nine Hamilton's vs MLB pitching would lose every time. Hamilton can create runs by himself by hitting a regular ground ball to SS.

I could care less if those guys were covered daily or not, they were incredibly better prospects than Hamilton is.

Hamilton can't beat out a regular groundball to a shortstop on anything like a regular basis. Do you know what Hamilton hit on grounders to shortstop last season? I do. Against minor league third baseman in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop. Now, that is absolutely insane (in a good way). But fielders get better, with stronger arms, with more accurate arms, with quicker releases and the fields are even better at every step of the way.

If your argument for why a player is ready is that he can beat out infield hits, it tells you all that you need to know. Hamilton is doing some good things right now (check out that plate discipline and his strikeout rate is now under 16%). He isn't close to being ready to face Major League pitching. The Carolina League All Star pitchers showed that. Despite his MVP, he went 1-5 with 3 strikeouts and a bunt single (outstanding bunt BTW). It is a great, giant leap to the Majors from there.

[membengal]

Heisey and Cairo were better prospects than Billy Hamilton?

Seriously, Doug?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

Heisey and Cairo were better prospects than Billy Hamilton?

Seriously, Doug?

I didn't say that at all. I read the OP's statement that Hamilton would hit better than those guys in the Major Leagues today, to which I said there is absolutely no chance that would happen.

Hamilton as a prospect is on an entirely different level than Heisey or Cairo ever were.

[dougdirt]

My above post says "Against minor league third baseman in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop."

I obviously meant against minor league shortstops in 2011, Hamilton hit .256 on grounders to shortstop.