Will Billy Hamilton be moved to CF?

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by klw

One thing to keep in mind with Hamilton is that when he was drafted he was described as raw as he had not played baseball year-round. So he is still a work in progress.

Here are draft time threads:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...hamilton+draft
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...hamilton+draft

I listen to the Up and In podcast at Baseball Prospectus with Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks, a prospect heavy show. They've been doing a lot of work on what goes wrong with prospects, specifically ones with high ceilings but raw tools. The general finding was that the raw players that actually became what people hoped for were the ones that showed instinct and feel for the game very early on. There is little doubt Hamilton fits this mold so far considering his record pace in SB's, his vast improvement at the plate, strong defensive profile, and switch hitting ability. I'm more and more encouraged by Hamilton's progress when I hear things like this.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Doesn't matter, in no world is a single and 2 stolen bases the same as a triple.

In the odd case they may be equal, but in most circumstances the triple is way better.

And you are assuming that Hamilton's singles are followed by 2 stolen bases. They aren't.

And how about those HR's?

Its simply that a single is tremendously easier to hit than a HR or Triple.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Its simply that a single is tremendously easier to hit than a HR or Triple.

..... Which is why we give credit to those that can hit for extra bases more regularly.

[redsof72]

Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

Interesting! Any insight you can provide?

[Kc61]

Just reading the BA q and a concerning today's Prospect Hot Sheet.

BA has a lot of very high praise for Mr. Hamilton.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think I might be able to answer my own question.

Range is really Hamilton's only plus ability defensively. His footwork gets sloppy and scouts debate whether he has the arm for the left side of the infield, with most wanting to see him end up in centerfield.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=15854

If this is true, why the delay? He really should be out in CF now!

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I think I might be able to answer my own question.



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=15854

If this is true, why the delay? He really should be out in CF now!

Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

Exhibit A: Starlin Castro.

[Scrap Irony]

From BA:

The worst thing a pitcher could see is Reds SS Billy Hamilton getting a lead off first base. The bad news for California League pitchers is that the Bakersfield shortstop has gotten much better at figuring out how to get to first. Hamilton, 21, was 7-for-29 this week with one extra-base hit, but he drew eight walks compared to four strikeouts, which allowed him to still swipe 12 bases in 15 attempts. Hamilton has walked 22 times compared to 17 strikeouts this month. The Cal League's hitting environments don't hurt, but Hamilton has managed to significantly cut his strikeout rate this year while upping his walk rate, it's a great combination for a leadoff hitter

But yeah, he's a horrible base stealer despite his 80% success rate and that everyone and their mother knows he's on the move.
And he's a horrid hitter despite the California League's atmosphere being condusive to almost every type of hitter except him.
And he's a poor athelte because... well, because he can't hit with power. Which, as we all know, is one of the main components of athleticism as it's defined and judged by 99.99% of the known world.


Hamilton is a remarkable player just scratching the surface of his abilities. He learned how to switch hit three years ago. He learned how to bunt remarkably well last season. He's learned patience at the plate. He's struck out in 10% less of his total ABs than when he started and 5% less than last season.

In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

[lollipopcurve]

In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

I agree. The rapid improvement as a hitter is telling.

Plus, the asterisk to Hamilton as a prospect is the buzz he brings to the crowd. Reds fans are more passive than most, I would say, but if Hamilton continues to progress and ends up a viable major league leadoff hitter, he's going to energize the ballpark. When that happens, more folks are going to want to be there. He's potentially a difference maker in more ways than one.

[lollipopcurve]

In short, the guy's showing enough improvement to be a great prospect.

I agree. The rapid improvement as a hitter -- alongside the basestealing explosion -- is telling.

Plus, the asterisk to Hamilton as a prospect is the buzz he brings to the crowd. Reds fans are more passive than most, I would say, but if Hamilton continues to progress and ends up a viable major league leadoff hitter, he's going to energize the ballpark. When that happens, more folks are going to want to be there. He's potentially a difference maker in more ways than one.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Hamilton's ability to hit at the major league level is still a question that is a long way from being answered but I will go out on a limb and say this: without a doubt, he will eventually be moved to center field. There are many reasons, but bottom line, it will happen.

Right now the Reds have two young players at both positions that are under control for the next several years.

Drew Stubbs is under control until 2015 and Zach Cozart is under control until 2017 I think....

For Billy to move to the majors one of these two players will need to be moved. For the Reds its a nice situation to have.... They have to decide which one they like more.

The other wildcard is Philips he is 31 right now, Billy's Eta is around 14 to 15 depending on how he advances which means Brandon will be 33 or 34, will he slow down and be looked at for the hot corner?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Right now the Reds have two young players at both positions that are under control for the next several years.

Drew Stubbs is under control until 2015 and Zach Cozart is under control until 2017 I think....

For Billy to move to the majors one of these two players will need to be moved. For the Reds its a nice situation to have.... They have to decide which one they like more.

The other wildcard is Philips he is 31 right now, Billy's Eta is around 14 to 15 depending on how he advances which means Brandon will be 33 or 34, will he slow down and be looked at for the hot corner?

As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by Benihana

As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

Right now in trade talks I think we should offer Stubbs, one reliever not named Chapman or Marshall, two or three prospects for Josh Reddick...

I think Heisy can fill in at CF at the same level as Stubbs.