Will Billy Hamilton be moved to CF?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Right now in trade talks I think we should offer Stubbs, one reliever not named Chapman or Marshall, two or three prospects for Josh Reddick...

I think Heisy can fill in at CF at the same level as Stubbs.

I'd like that.

I'd imagine they'd want one or two of the Pensacola pitchers.

We could also ask for Balfour while we're at it.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I'd like that.

I'd imagine they'd want one or two of the Pensacola pitchers.

We could also ask for Balfour while we're at it.

One of the three plus one other prospect not named Billy...Lutz, Dee Dee,

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Because you don't move guys off SS until you are absolutely positive they can't handle it. The Reds obviously still hold out some hope that his defense will continue to improve. He is clearly athletic enough for the position.

redsof72 said he likely won't last, Goldstein said he likely won't last, many scouts have said it too. It seems like the experts know more about it than you or I. The longer you wait to move him to CF, which sounds like his future, the longer it's going to take him to adjust to the new position. CF is quite a bit different than SS.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Exhibit A: Starlin Castro.

Castro has been a below average defender in his young career so far. He's looked a bit better this year, but the jury is still out as to whether or not he can be an average or better defender.

[Scrap Irony]

The young players already in Cincinnati-- Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Hoover-- will all still be on the right side of 30 by 2015. Add Votto, who, as a 1B, doesn't need to be all that spry, and you can see why the future is relatively bright.

That's two true superstars (Cueto-- questionably and Votto), three more All-Star level producers (Latos, Bruce, Chapman), and a host of guys who look solidly above league average in their respective spots on the roster.

They need a couple of the above average players to blossom into All Stars (which can happen), one of the All Stars to blossom into a superstar (which is possible), or multiple guys from the minors develop into above average players in positions of need.

With Corcino, Cingrani, Hamilton, Lutz, Lotzkar, Vidal, and H. Rodriguez, they've got a good shot at just that.

If just one of the minor leaguers develops into a superstar, the Reds will have a bit of a early 90s Cleveland run in them. Hamilton, IMO, has the highest ceiling of that group and is most likely to become that superstar.

Fwiw, my 2015 lineup:
Hamilton CF
H. Rodriguez 3B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS

The real question is what happens with the pitching staff? I think we all know Arroyo is not long for Cincinnati. But what could the Reds get for Leake, shoudld they want to try Corcino in his spot? What could they get for Bailey if they decide that Chapman needs to be a starter? How about Latos? Whither Cingrani?

There's a lot of moving parts-- good parts, mind you, in the Red pipeline. It'll be interesting to see how Jocketty and company move them around in order to create a team.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

redsof72 said he likely won't last, Goldstein said he likely won't last, many scouts have said it too. It seems like the experts know more about it than you or I. The longer you wait to move him to CF, which sounds like his future, the longer it's going to take him to adjust to the new position. CF is quite a bit different than SS.

What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

[j_m_t_us]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

You are absolutely right! The bloggers like Goldstein and some of the people that post here seem to think they know more then the people on the inside! Time to move on from the Hamilton to CF obsession!

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

What do all those people have in common (myself included)?

None of them work for the Reds.

It doesn't matter what message board posters think, it doesn't matter what Goldstein thinks, and it doesn't matter what some anonymous scouts think. As long as the guys who are running the Reds player development system feel like Hamilton has a chance to stick at SS, they aren't going to move him. Their opinions are the only ones that matter.

How do you know for a fact that the scouts quoted don't work for the Reds? Or that Redsof72, who has a lot more inside knowledge than you or I do, doesn't know what he's heard? The guy knows prominent people inside of the Reds organization. Maybe you missed that memo.

At the same token, I'm going to trust Goldstein and these other people over your opinions, no offense. These guys have some established credibility.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

How do you know for a fact that the scouts quoted don't work for the Reds? Or that Redsof72, who has a lot more inside knowledge than you or I do, doesn't know what he's heard? The guy knows prominent people inside of the Reds organization. Maybe you missed that memo.

At the same token, I'm going to trust Goldstein and these other people over your opinions, no offense. These guys have some established credibility.

Fair enough.

I'm going to trust Ken Griffey's lineup cards. If the Reds had given up on Hamilton as SS, he wouldn't be playing SS every day. They clearly want to give him a little more time at the position before giving up on his glove.

[mth123]

I don't see a need to rush Hamilton into CF. Catching Fly Balls is about the easiest thing a guy can do on a Baseball Diamond provided he has enough mobility to run them down (no issue here). He could be converted in AAA when he's putting the finishing touches on his offensive game. Until then, they may as well keep the door open in the IF. It maintains his value, gives him a longer time to get it to click and allows other teams to evaluate him as a SS should any be willing to pony up for Hamilton as their SS of the future.

Hamilton isn't Alonso, Dunn or Dorn that has to get the absolute best jump on everything just to have a shot at catching up to it. I'd imagine he could outrun enough of his mistakes to be competent out there with very little preparation time. He'd get better from there. I think he probably ends up in CF, but there is plenty of time for that.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by Benihana

As others have said, I think Hamilton is destined for CF. I think his likely ETA is 2014. I think it is likely Stubbs is traded by that point, as he will start getting more and more expensive once he's arbitration eligible. Barring major trades or FA signings, the 2014 lineup will look like this IMO:

CF Hamilton
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF ??? (could be Lutz, Waldrop, Gelalich, or even Frazier)
RF Bruce
3B Frazier (could be H-Rod, Vidal or Youkilis?)
C Mesoraco
SS Cozart

I'll be laughed off the board again. But your 2015 lineup should be the 2012 second half lineup. I have zero doubt it would produce today more than what we have now. Hanigan obviously still plays his 60%.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

The young players already in Cincinnati-- Bruce, Leake, Bailey, Frazier, Cozart, Mesoraco, Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Hoover-- will all still be on the right side of 30 by 2015. Add Votto, who, as a 1B, doesn't need to be all that spry, and you can see why the future is relatively bright.

That's two true superstars (Cueto-- questionably and Votto), three more All-Star level producers (Latos, Bruce, Chapman), and a host of guys who look solidly above league average in their respective spots on the roster.

They need a couple of the above average players to blossom into All Stars (which can happen), one of the All Stars to blossom into a superstar (which is possible), or multiple guys from the minors develop into above average players in positions of need.

With Corcino, Cingrani, Hamilton, Lutz, Lotzkar, Vidal, and H. Rodriguez, they've got a good shot at just that.

If just one of the minor leaguers develops into a superstar, the Reds will have a bit of a early 90s Cleveland run in them. Hamilton, IMO, has the highest ceiling of that group and is most likely to become that superstar.

Fwiw, my 2015 lineup:
Hamilton CF
H. Rodriguez 3B
Votto 1B
Frazier LF
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Mesoraco C
Cozart SS

The real question is what happens with the pitching staff? I think we all know Arroyo is not long for Cincinnati. But what could the Reds get for Leake, shoudld they want to try Corcino in his spot? What could they get for Bailey if they decide that Chapman needs to be a starter? How about Latos? Whither Cingrani?

There's a lot of moving parts-- good parts, mind you, in the Red pipeline. It'll be interesting to see how Jocketty and company move them around in order to create a team.

Actually I like this one even better for 2012 second half.

[bellhead]

Here's an article I posted in the ORG on players under control for the NL central. The Reds are in the best shape imo.

http://disciplesofuecker.com/buildin...act-cores/3422

[corkedbat]

I think where Billy ends up will determine mostly by how he fares defensively as well as what moves the Redsdo in deals between now and 2013.

Billy's value is certainly greater if he sticks at SS, but by the same token SS is one place where I don't want to compromise on defense. I would be perfectly fine with Cozart and Gregorious sharing the SS position over the next few years and moving Billy to CF.

Normally, I might like to have a bit more power from my CFer, but if Billy can maintain his improved walk rate, but and just beat the ball into the ground enough, he'll get on base quite a bit. Also, while he's probably never gonna hit 20 dingers (or maybe even 10 for that matter), I can see him developing more gap power as he matures. One thing to remember about Hamilton, every walk, every bunt single, every HBP or reached on an error is potentially just a pitch or two from being a double or triple with his speed and ability to swipe bases.

Defensively? He certainly hs the speed to cover a lot of ground out in center, but he doesn't have any experince. If they are going to make a move, it needs to be done this offseason at the very latest. You'd prefer a better arm out there, but his arm isn't terrible.

[Scrap Irony]

That's a good point, corked. I like Cozart's power from the SS position. It plays especially well in the GABP, which can mask some of his obp problems. (Gregorius, IMO, is a poor man's Billy Hamilton, with-- if you can believe it-- less game power. He does have a better glove, but, at this point, he's more Paul Janish than true big league starter.)

It depends on what the Reds' brass do between now and then.

If they're okay with some combination of Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey the rest of this year AND Stubbs is retained in the summer, I'd be in favor of switching Hamilton next year, either in AA (likely) or AAA. If they're looking for other options in center, Hamilton could end up a SS, with both Gregorius and Cozart as trade chips as early as the winter of 2013.