John Sickels Midseason Top 120 (no draft picks included)

[dougdirt]

John Sickels came out with his Top 120 without draft picks included (count on about 15 or so draft picks to be inside the Top 120 at years end as well as maybe an international guy or two). Here is the link for the entire list:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/...evision-update

Here are the Reds, with previous ranking in ( )

15) Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds (57)
61) Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (120)
63) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (HM)
94) Tony Cingrani, LHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)
114) Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Cincinnati Reds (NR)

Not a bad showing for our guys.

[bellhead]

I'd say it's a great showing, 5 in the top 125 after trading most of the major guys away last year to acquire Latos, and Marshall.

[camisadelgolf]

60% of Pensacola's rotation is in the top 120. That's almost as impressive as the Mariners' AA squad in Jackson, which had Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but if all goes well, could you imagine a rotation that features Aroldis Chapman, Robert Stephenson, Nick Travieso, Dan Corcino, and someone like Sal Romano, Drew Cisco, Ismael Guillon, J.C. Sulbaran, or Tony Cingrani?

[kaldaniels]

Not that I agree with 15, but I did expect Hamilton to suprise on the upside given all the hype.

[kaldaniels]

Shelby Miller headed in the right direction, 6th down to 35th now.

[OesterPoster]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Shelby Miller headed in the right direction, 6th down to 35th now.

For a top prospect, he's had a pretty poor year so far. Suddenly very hittable at the AAA level, plus he's walking a ton more guys. And he's giving up a crapload of HRs.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by OesterPoster

For a top prospect, he's had a pretty poor year so far. Suddenly very hittable at the AAA level, plus he's walking a ton more guys. And he's giving up a crapload of HRs.

There are reports that his velocity is quite a bit lower than it used to be.

[OesterPoster]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

There are reports that his velocity is quite a bit lower than it used to be.

Ruh-roh. Wonder if he has some pain somewhere. I saw him against Dayton when he was in Low A, and the guy was practically unhittable.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

60% of Pensacola's rotation is in the top 120. That's almost as impressive as the Mariners' AA squad in Jackson, which had Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Danny Hultzen. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but if all goes well, could you imagine a rotation that features Aroldis Chapman, Robert Stephenson, Nick Travieso, Dan Corcino, and someone like Sal Romano, Drew Cisco, Ismael Guillon, J.C. Sulbaran, or Tony Cingrani?

I've got a ball signed by Walker, Paxton and Hultzen....

[Scrap Irony]

Not that rankings matter, but you cannot tell me Henry Rodriguez (career .310/ .359/ .443/ .802) isn't one of the 120 best prospects in baseball. At 22, he's young for AA and has hit the ball for a very high average for two years now, all while switching positions to 3B. Speaking of his glove, it's been a net positive at his new position, where he shows arm strength enough to stick.

His power isn't all that great, but it's serviceable at around .450. His career obp is .360 and showing signs of major (BA-driven) improvement; the past two seasons have seen it in the .370 range. He's a lifetime .310 hitter, with his last two seasons bouncing up into the .340 range. He's even had two 30-steal seasons in a row.

On the list of top 120 prospects, Wilmer Flores' line is well below Rodriguez's, though, to be fair, he is about a year ahead on the progression through the minor league ladder. Kaleb Cowart's line is worse across the board (.284/ .346/ .444/ .791). Cowart is a couple year's younger, but has only recently moved up to one rung below Rodriguez.
Cheslor Cuthbert's line (.249/ .322/ .374/ .696) is apalling.

Jefry Marte's a 21 year old in AA that made the Honorable Mention list. His numbers (career .258/ .320/ .380/ .700)-- both career and season (.274/ .342/ .402/ .745)-- are well below Rodriguez's. Both play 3B. Matt Davidson, another Honorable Mention 3B, has the following line: .265/ .348/ .446/ .794. He's a year younger, but has no speed. Zach Cox has the line .291/ .346/ .425/ .771, is on the same path, years-wise, but also has no speed. Cody Asche's line, .264/ .318/ .344/ .662, is downright horrid, is the same age, and has no speed, but he's also in the honorable mention portion of the list.

Rodriguez will surprise people like Sickels, IMO. He'll out-produce at least half of these guys at the major league level, likely more than that.

[dougdirt]

Rodriguez just doesn't have a lot of upside. He is probably close to being a finished product. He isn't going to find his power he has been missing like some of those guys have a chance to. He isn't going to be an outstanding defender (likely) like some of those guys might be.

[Kingspoint]

Three in the top-63. I'll take that, especially considering that two are pitchers and one a SS (at this point of his career).

[Scrap Irony]

How is he close to a finished product and the others aren't, doug?

Age?

It's one year with some of them, two years with others, and dead even with more.

He's improved his slugging each of the past three full years, his BA has continued to climb, and he's going to end up fine at the hot corner.

[fearofpopvol1]

What scares me is how many Cardinals prospects made this list. It's truly a ridiculous number. And the Pirates too.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

How is he close to a finished product and the others aren't, doug?

Age?

It's one year with some of them, two years with others, and dead even with more.

He's improved his slugging each of the past three full years, his BA has continued to climb, and he's going to end up fine at the hot corner.

From a projection standpoint, he is about topped out. His hit tool isn't going to get better (based on scouts OFP's). His power isn't going to get much better at all. His defense isn't going to get better.

Other guys are more raw and could develop into better hitters, develop power, hone in their defensive skills. Rodriguez, by scouting reports, probably doesn't have a whole lot of room to grow into his game.

His ISO at each stop is:
Low A: .166
High A: .157
AA: .117

Sure, his slugging has gone up, but only because his average has gone up. His power has actually gone down.

He can hit, but his power is entirely limited to the pull side from both sides of the plate. Up the middle and to the opposite field he is absolutely a slap hitter.