Theo Bowe appreciation thread

[dougdirt]

This guy is not getting much love for the season he is having. Yes, it started off very slow for Dayton, hitting just .186 in 100 at bats. But then he was promoted to Bakersfield. In 216 at bats there, he is hitting .377/.453/.481.

So, what is going on here? Well, there are a few things at work.

First, his BABIP went from .239 (way too low for someone with his speed) to .465 (way too high for anyone). Of course, when someone is hitting .377, you expect their BABIP to be way too high for anyone, because well, guys just don't hit .377.

His walk rate went from 12% in Dayton to 10.6% in Bakersfield, so nothing really there. His strikeout rate went from 19% to 17.6%, so there really isn't too much there either.

Looking at the batted ball types though, there is a huge difference. Line drives are the same rate, but his groundball rate went from 44% in Dayton to 64% in Bakersfield. As we know, groundballs go for hits more often than fly balls do, so that alone would be part of a reason to see a higher average. But when we toss in that Theo Bowe is as fast as anyone in baseball, well, those extra groundballs really mean something for him. While I haven't downloaded the files for the minor league season recently, I imagine that his infield singles rate is rather high, explaining in part, his very high BABIP.

Side note: Earlier today I was doing some video scouting, just getting some times on different players from home to first base. Pulled down a 3.72 on Theo Bowe. That is faster than any time that I have ever gotten (non-bunt). Billy Hamilton has gotten a 3.74 (note that I am using video here at 30 frames per second - so it isn't human error on the times) for the fastest I have ever gotten him at.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

This guy is not getting much love for the season he is having. Yes, it started off very slow for Dayton, hitting just .186 in 100 at bats. But then he was promoted to Bakersfield. In 216 at bats there, he is hitting .377/.453/.481.

So, what is going on here? Well, there are a few things at work.

First, his BABIP went from .239 (way too low for someone with his speed) to .465 (way too high for anyone). Of course, when someone is hitting .377, you expect their BABIP to be way too high for anyone, because well, guys just don't hit .377.

His walk rate went from 12% in Dayton to 10.6% in Bakersfield, so nothing really there. His strikeout rate went from 19% to 17.6%, so there really isn't too much there either.

Looking at the batted ball types though, there is a huge difference. Line drives are the same rate, but his groundball rate went from 44% in Dayton to 64% in Bakersfield. As we know, groundballs go for hits more often than fly balls do, so that alone would be part of a reason to see a higher average. But when we toss in that Theo Bowe is as fast as anyone in baseball, well, those extra groundballs really mean something for him. While I haven't downloaded the files for the minor league season recently, I imagine that his infield singles rate is rather high, explaining in part, his very high BABIP.

Side note: Earlier today I was doing some video scouting, just getting some times on different players from home to first base. Pulled down a 3.72 on Theo Bowe. That is faster than any time that I have ever gotten (non-bunt). Billy Hamilton has gotten a 3.74 (note that I am using video here at 30 frames per second - so it isn't human error on the times) for the fastest I have ever gotten him at.

Wouldn't a 30 frame per second video have a margin of error of +/- .03 (or .015 minimally) seconds?

At least enough margin to not be 100% certain he was faster than Billy? No doubt that is a burning time.

Sorry that post struck a nerve in my math bone.

[mace]

One thing I've found a bit odd about Bowe is his high rate of getting thrown out stealing. In Bakersfield, he has 34 steals and 19 caughts, which is a problem. Obviously, his stealing is a work in progress, and his improvement in hitting is much more relevant; but at the same time, the advantages of a speed guy are somewhat minimized if he has a hard time swiping a base.

That said, he has become a very interesting guy to follow.

[RedlegJake]

Bowe obviously has burning speed but he must have a hard tome reading pitchers. I wonder how many of those caughts are pick-offs and how many at the attempted bag?
That can be revealing, too. Anyway that is definitely something he can work on and learn.

Much better to see his hit tool getting better - the ground ball rate is nice to see, although his success on hits will drop as he rises levels and infields get better it still plays to a degree with his speed.

Walk rate isn't improving which concerns me a bit because its fairly low although not terrible. K rate dropped slightly. Hitters league, too, but his numbers are good even for Cal's inflation effects.

What I think will be interesting is to see if he takes Billy's place running wild and leading this team.

[RedlegJake]

Here's a thought - trade for Peter Bourjos, and bring up Billy and Theo. Fastest outfield in baseball history. Might hit .200 collectively but they'd lead the majors in triples and steals. And Stubbs could back em up. Wow.

[dougdirt]

Kal, I meant more in terms of human error for the human pushing start a tad to soon/late and stop a tad to soon/late.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Kal, I meant more in terms of human error for the human pushing start a tad to soon/late and stop a tad to soon/late.

No problem, got it.

[Ohayou]

How does a slash line of .187/.286/.244 even get you a promotion?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Ohayou

How does a slash line of .187/.286/.244 even get you a promotion?

Injuries. Plus, Bowe was clearly better than that slash line was, it just wasn't showing up in the numbers. Clearly he isn't as good as his current slash line is either.

[membengal]

So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by membengal

So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.

[membengal]

Nice deflection, dougdirt defense team. Well done.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by membengal

Nice deflection, dougdirt defense team. Well done.

I'm not on anyone's team.
»I Play by my own rules || GOMEZ « - YouTube

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

So...Bowe results, noteworthy. Cingrani results, crap. Got it.

Yep, that is exactly what I said. That Cingrani's results were crap.

Or, like I have done in this thread, I looked at the stats, then looked at the things he was doing to acquire those stats to try and explain some of what was happening.

Theo Bowe is hitting .316 with 46 steals in 74 games this season and no one is talking about him. I started this thread to talk about Theo Bowe, give him some credit and talk about the season he is having. Let's also note, since you can't let it go, that Theo Bowe, despite his numbers this season, isn't in my Reds Top 30 prospects right now (I stopped at 30 guys when compiling my list, so he may be even further back than that). Just wanted to get the guys name out there in case some people hadn't taken notice of the good season that he was having.

[membengal]

How is what he is doing in terms of babip different than what Phipps did last year? Is there any reason to move the prospect meter on him or is he just a nice story?

And you have flat disregarded or explained away or otherwise dismissed the Cingrani results. For months. But I am glad someone else's results are of interest, I guess, from you.