It's the Halfway Point of the Season: Who's in Your Top 10?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Hamilton: .323/ .413/ .439/ .852/ 13% BB rate/ 104 SB (21 CS)
Gregorius: .303/ .333/ .457/ .791/ 4.9% BB rate/ 8 SB (8 CS)

Speed plus the almost 80 points in obp? You're talking, over a full season (700 ABs), an extra 120 total bases (when factoring in stolen bases, CS, BBs, and hits). (321 TB for Gregorius and 441 for Hamilton)

That's the difference between 2011 offensive versions of Chris Heisey and Mike Leake.

BTW, I'd agree that Gregorius has more power he hasn't shown, except he re-worked his swing this offseason, sacrificing power for putting the ball on the ground. As he's swinging right now, there's no chance he can hit 15 homers in the majors.

Sure, if both guys carry forward their exact Bakersfield stats. But they probably won't do that. Gregorius for example has an 8% walk rate in AA this year compared to 4.9% in Bakersfield last year.

Gregorius GB rate is 44% this year. Last year it was 43%.

Now, he does absolutely give up his power right now to try and just put the bat on the ball. When he wants to though, he can bring out the power. It will be interesting to see if either he or someone else can talk him into trying to use it a little bit more often.

Either way though, a strong defensive shortstop who walks nearly as much as he strikes out who also makes contact at a very high rate has more value than I believe you are giving him credit for, especially if we are going to compare him to someone with far less power, more struggles making contact and not nearly the same kind of defense.

[bubbachunk]

This is a whole lot of belly aching based upon two different approaches to valuing prospects. One group is giving more weight to minor league numbers while another is giving more weight to tools/scouting reports/stuff.

Depending on which way you lean will greatly influence how your rankings come out.

[membengal]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

This is a whole lot of belly aching based upon two different approaches to valuing prospects. One group is giving more weight to minor league numbers while another is giving more weight to tools/scouting reports/stuff.

Depending on which way you lean will greatly influence how your rankings come out.

I tend to believe that when you put up the kind of numbers that Cingrani has, it is a clue that his "stuff" is pretty darn good. So they two kind of go hand in glove. I have no idea what his ceiling is, or his floor, but am curious enough about that given what he has done and the reports of his plus command to go with his handedness to keep me very interested.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by membengal

I tend to believe that when you put up the kind of numbers that Cingrani has, it is a clue that his "stuff" is pretty darn good. So they two kind of go hand in glove. I have no idea what his ceiling is, or his floor, but am curious enough about that given what he has done and the reports of his plus command to go with his handedness to keep me very interested.

Think of it as potential vs production. Some players have immense potential but never have the production to back it up. Some players produce for a time but their lack of skill or potential eventually comes back and shows them for what they truely are.

I do not know what history says as far as if we should value minor league production or scouts grades more than the other. That is because there is not a way to quantify that in any way that would not bring about a giant amount of arguments.

At the end of the day though we all hope everyone of these guys/kids become what we hoped they could be when they are signed and more.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sure, if both guys carry forward their exact Bakersfield stats. But they probably won't do that. Gregorius for example has an 8% walk rate in AA this year compared to 4.9% in Bakersfield last year.

While an 81-game stretch of barely acceptable BB rate is better than his alternative career (which borders on 5%), I'd like to see that continue before being convinced it's a change due to hitter selectivity or simply noise. As a no-power guy, he'll have to obp fairly high not to be a drag on the offense. His BA (.274) is okay, but if it stays there at the major league level, he'd need to have a BB rate around 10%.

I don't see that happening.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Gregorius GB rate is 44% this year. Last year it was 43%.

Now, he does absolutely give up his power right now to try and just put the bat on the ball. When he wants to though, he can bring out the power. It will be interesting to see if either he or someone else can talk him into trying to use it a little bit more often.

Well then he'd better start showing it then. His career as a whole has shown one 200-AB California League blip on a career-long arc of limp noodle slugging. I cannot imagine a player unwilling to show a tool he supposedly possesses. Of course, as you said earlier about Cingrani's plus change, if he doesn't use it, does it matter?

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Either way though, a strong defensive shortstop who walks nearly as much as he strikes out who also makes contact at a very high rate has more value than I believe you are giving him credit for, especially if we are going to compare him to someone with far less power, more struggles making contact and not nearly the same kind of defense.

At 106 and 213, he Ks twice as much as he walks. That's a mugh higher ratio than Hamilton's numbers right now and about even with him over their respective careers. Too, "far less power" is questionable, at best. Hamilton has a higher career slugging percentage by more than 20 points. While neither have exactly murdered the ball, Hamilton's at least got another weapon offensively that Gregorius simply doesn't possess. And that weapon can garner his team 80 more bases a year. That's huge. And, while Gregorius doesn't K all that much (which is good), he doesn't walk nearly enough for that to become a major advantage. Hamilton, as a high K, high BB guy, adds value to his obp with all those extra walks. (Those 50 or so points of obp are of extreme value.)

Defensively, Gregorius is better, no question. He'll make a fine backup/ defensive replacement late in games. He may even get to part-time starter or placeholder on a weak team. Want proof? Let's compare Gregorius' numbers to another no-hit, good-field SS-- Paul Janish:
BB rate-- Janish
BB:K ratio-- Janish
SLG-- Janish
OBP-- Janish
BA-- Gregorius

Now, I realize Gregorius is young and may fill out and show some of that batting practice power as he continues to play. Then again, so might Hamilton. As of now, Gregorius is what the back of his baseball card says he is.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

Think of it as potential vs production. Some players have immense potential but never have the production to back it up. Some players produce for a time but their lack of skill or potential eventually comes back and shows them for what they truely are.

Can you give me a list of guys who didn't have acceptable numbers in the minor leagues that went on to great major league careers? Or even acceptable major league careers?

Drew Stubbs? Okay, maybe.

Got another?

I'm guessing that almost all prospects-- 90+% of them, maybe more-- are easy to see from their numbers. Especially hitters. If you compare them across their own team, their league/ level, their age group, you can come up with a list of guys that should perform well.

Those in the lower echelon may become useful spare parts or platoon partners, but I don't know of one that's become a star. (Though, admittedly, I could absolutely be wrong. This is an absolute guess.)

[klw]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Can you give me a list of guys who didn't have acceptable numbers in the minor leagues that went on to great major league careers? Or even acceptable major league careers?

Drew Stubbs? Okay, maybe.

Got another?

I'm guessing that almost all prospects-- 90+% of them, maybe more-- are easy to see from their numbers. Especially hitters. If you compare them across their own team, their league/ level, their age group, you can come up with a list of guys that should perform well.

Those in the lower echelon may become useful spare parts or platoon partners, but I don't know of one that's become a star. (Though, admittedly, I could absolutely be wrong. This is an absolute guess.)

Hanley Ramirez is an interesting case study for minor league vs major league numbers. In the minors he never hit more than 8 homers in a season while in the majors he has averaged 25 homers per 162 games and has produced far greater than he did in the minors. While he was always young for his level and a top prospect, he really exploded once he got to the majors.

[dougdirt]

Acceptable walk rates vary based on a guys strikeout rate. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 25% of the time.... not acceptable. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 10% of the time, acceptable. Keep the K/BB better than 3-1 and you are on the right side of things. Between 2009 and today Brandon Phillips has a walk rate of 6.5%. His strikeout rate though is at 12%. Phillips doesn't walk much at all, but it is ok because he also doesn't strike out much, allowing him to hit for a solid average while doing so. Gregorius falls into that Phillips range both in terms of walks and strikeouts over his career.

I hate to bring it up, but its a valid point, Stubbs never really used his power in the minors, but once he got to the Majors, it showed up. Yes, the Cal League is about the only place where he has shown the game power, but go watch him take BP. The power is there. As I said, it is a matter of translating it into game power, which I think is actually more an approach issue than anything else.

I overestimated Didi some there, but he is still at a 1.7 K/BB rate this season. That is pretty good.

With Hamilton, it remains to be seen if those walks actually translate forward when pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to get to pitch to him. Counting on a guy with absolutely no power to walk 10% of the time in the Majors is questionable at best. There are some guys who have been able to do it, but they are few and far between.

Comparing Gregorius and Janish is not all that fair. Gregorius is 22 right now and in AAA. When Janish was 22 he was playing in Dayton.

As for Hamilton showing some of his batting practice power.... he is. That is all he has got. Hamilton doesn't have any semblance of projectable power. Didi does.

With the back of the baseball card.... if we are only ranking prospects based on how they would perform today, then all of our top prospects would be in AAA because they are simply better than the guys in AA/A+/A?RK (well, most of them at least).

It seems to me that the difference is that you believe Hamilton will continue to walk at the high rate he has shown this year and that will offset his absolute no power. Where as I don't think it is a safe bet at all to assume Hamilton will walk at anywhere near the same rate he has thus far this season in the Majors and could wind up being exactly what Didi Gregorius is right now, but with more strikeouts, more steals, lesser power and lesser defense.

[dougdirt]

Scrap, why does someone have to become a star? If Gregorius turns out to be an average or even slightly above average Major League shortstop, isn't that something worth including inside your Top 20?

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Acceptable walk rates vary based on a guys strikeout rate. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 25% of the time.... not acceptable. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 10% of the time, acceptable. Keep the K/BB better than 3-1 and you are on the right side of things. Between 2009 and today Brandon Phillips has a walk rate of 6.5%. His strikeout rate though is at 12%. Phillips doesn't walk much at all, but it is ok because he also doesn't strike out much, allowing him to hit for a solid average while doing so. Gregorius falls into that Phillips range both in terms of walks and strikeouts over his career.

I hate to bring it up, but its a valid point, Stubbs never really used his power in the minors, but once he got to the Majors, it showed up. Yes, the Cal League is about the only place where he has shown the game power, but go watch him take BP. The power is there. As I said, it is a matter of translating it into game power, which I think is actually more an approach issue than anything else.

I overestimated Didi some there, but he is still at a 1.7 K/BB rate this season. That is pretty good.

With Hamilton, it remains to be seen if those walks actually translate forward when pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to get to pitch to him. Counting on a guy with absolutely no power to walk 10% of the time in the Majors is questionable at best. There are some guys who have been able to do it, but they are few and far between.

Comparing Gregorius and Janish is not all that fair. Gregorius is 22 right now and in AAA. When Janish was 22 he was playing in Dayton.

As for Hamilton showing some of his batting practice power.... he is. That is all he has got. Hamilton doesn't have any semblance of projectable power. Didi does.

With the back of the baseball card.... if we are only ranking prospects based on how they would perform today, then all of our top prospects would be in AAA because they are simply better than the guys in AA/A+/A?RK (well, most of them at least).

It seems to me that the difference is that you believe Hamilton will continue to walk at the high rate he has shown this year and that will offset his absolute no power. Where as I don't think it is a safe bet at all to assume Hamilton will walk at anywhere near the same rate he has thus far this season in the Majors and could wind up being exactly what Didi Gregorius is right now, but with more strikeouts, more steals, lesser power and lesser defense.

Before I get into this: are you saying you'd take Gregorius over Hamilton?

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by klw

Hanley Ramirez is an interesting case study for minor league vs major league numbers. In the minors he never hit more than 8 homers in a season while in the majors he has averaged 25 homers per 162 games and has produced far greater than he did in the minors. While he was always young for his level and a top prospect, he really exploded once he got to the majors.

If you compare him to his peers (age, their level, et al), Ramirez dominated most of them until his last minor league year.

I'd argue that his numbers-- obp and slugging especially-- were well above average. A total minor league line from a SS that goes .300/.350/.430 is very, very good. (Especially considering the leagues he was a part of.)

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Before I get into this: are you saying you'd take Gregorius over Hamilton?

Nope. I am just saying I think they are much closer than you do.

I think Hamilton has a chance to compete for MVP's if things go right for him. I don't see that with Gregorius.

But as both of their games stand, today, I think that Gregorius is probably the better player when looking at the entire package. Hamilton just has that upside that Gregorius doesn't.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Acceptable walk rates vary based on a guys strikeout rate. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 25% of the time.... not acceptable. A guy who walks 5% of the time but strikes out 10% of the time, acceptable. Keep the K/BB better than 3-1 and you are on the right side of things. Between 2009 and today Brandon Phillips has a walk rate of 6.5%. His strikeout rate though is at 12%. Phillips doesn't walk much at all, but it is ok because he also doesn't strike out much, allowing him to hit for a solid average while doing so. Gregorius falls into that Phillips range both in terms of walks and strikeouts over his career.

And if he could slug like Phillips, that would be fine.

Even if you were to give him the bump for his batting practice power, he doesn't get there.

He's a no-power guy with a poor BB rate, at this point. He has to have one or the other in order to even be considered a prospect. Unless, of course, he's Ozzie Smith with the glove-- and, while he's good, he's not that good.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I hate to bring it up, but its a valid point, Stubbs never really used his power in the minors, but once he got to the Majors, it showed up. Yes, the Cal League is about the only place where he has shown the game power, but go watch him take BP. The power is there. As I said, it is a matter of translating it into game power, which I think is actually more an approach issue than anything else.

Stubbs' slugging percentage in the minor leagues didn't dropp below .400 until AAA. Gregorius has only toppped .400 once. In 200 ABs. In the California League.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I overestimated Didi some there, but he is still at a 1.7 K/BB rate this season. That is pretty good.

It's... okay. But for a low-walk, no-pop guy, it needs to be better to get any consideration as a full-time major league player.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

With Hamilton, it remains to be seen if those walks actually translate forward when pitchers who can throw strikes when they want to get to pitch to him. Counting on a guy with absolutely no power to walk 10% of the time in the Majors is questionable at best. There are some guys who have been able to do it, but they are few and far between.

So, let me get this straight: Gregorius' low BB rate will play at the major league level as is (or get better) because of his batting practice power, while Hamilton's high BB rate won't because he doesn't have any power, though his slugging percentage is higher than Gregorius'?

As to Hamilton not sustaining his BB rate, it's possible, sure. But it's a tool he's shown consistently so far. If he struggles going forward, I'll change my picks.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Comparing Gregorius and Janish is not all that fair. Gregorius is 22 right now and in AAA. When Janish was 22 he was playing in Dayton.

Okay, fair enough. How about Juan Castro? Different scrub, same result.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

As for Hamilton showing some of his batting practice power.... he is. That is all he has got. Hamilton doesn't have any semblance of projectable power. Didi does.

Then DiDi best get to it. He hasn't shown any of it so far.

Originally Posted by dougdirt

With the back of the baseball card.... if we are only ranking prospects based on how they would perform today, then all of our top prospects would be in AAA because they are simply better than the guys in AA/A+/A?RK (well, most of them at least).

It seems to me that the difference is that you believe Hamilton will continue to walk at the high rate he has shown this year and that will offset his absolute no power. Where as I don't think it is a safe bet at all to assume Hamilton will walk at anywhere near the same rate he has thus far this season in the Majors and could wind up being exactly what Didi Gregorius is right now, but with more strikeouts, more steals, lesser power and lesser defense.

And what I see is that you're projecting Gregorius to make a massive jump forward and Hamilton to take a massive step backward when, again, it just doesn't normally work that way. Players tend to be in-- and stay in-- select strata. Gregorius' strata is as a less than league average minor leaguer offensively with a plus glove. Hamilton's strata is a no-power, high BB speedster. Those play about half the time as All-Stars at the major league level. (For every Joey Gathright you give me, I can give you a Rafael Furcal. For each Dee Gordon, there's a Vince Coleman.) Hamilton's ceiling is a game-changing perennial All-Star. Gregorius is as a league average starter. Hamilton's likely career looks a lot better, at this point, than does Gregorius'.

[dougdirt]

Scrap, here is the kind of season I fully believe that Gregorius is capable of

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
650	588	160	25	10	8	49	85	5	5	3	.272	.332	.389	.305

I would gladly take that kind of season from a very good defensive shortstop.

In that scenario I gave him a 7.5% walk rate and a 13% strikeout rate.

Where am I very far off in that scenario that would leave a guy like that outside of your Top 20?

[klw]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

A total minor league line from a SS that goes .300/.350/.430 is very, very good. (Especially considering the leagues he was a part of.)

His minor league numbers were fine but to then jump to .292/.353/.480 in the majors at 22 with twice the homers he ever hit in a minor league season and then to go to 332/386/562 with 29 homers and 51 sb's was a huge jump.