Aroldis Chapman and history

[RedEye]

I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.

[Dan]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.

The devil you know...

[WildcatFan]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

The thing is, you can undo the "trade" at any time. You don't lose "Aroldis Chapman, dominant closer" unless you gain a more valuable starter in return. Sure, there's some point at which a change back would make sense. But to not take the shot seems unnecessarily conservative.

These are my thoughts too. I say keep him as your closer the rest of this year and next year just lay it out there that we are using him as a starter until he shows he isn't valuable as one.

It has been bananas watching him in the ninth inning (is it just me, or does it look like there is genuine worry in the faces of a few of the batters?), but a 17 K/9 speaks for itself. There's a really good chance we have an ace on our hands. And not an is-he-or-isn't-he-Cueto-style ace, a no-doubt, throw-in-the-towel-and-let's-get-em-tomorrow ace. I'd hate to never know for sure.

[mdccclxix]

I just have to say, Chapman to the rotation means Leake or Bailey to the pen or traded. There are a lot of issues to be worked out before he gets to the rotation. If Cingrani and Corcino appear ready for AAA next year that will help Chapman.

[NJReds]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I fail to understand why some would prefer having 70 innings rather than 200 innings of dominance. It makes no sense.

If it's a guarantee that he could replicate that dominance over 200 innings, it'd be a no brainer. However, I'm not sure he could do that throwing mostly fastballs and the occasional slider.

If he threw 70 innings this year, would the Reds let him go 200 next year, or would it be a slow build (Verducci effect) ... 120 ... 160 ... etc.?

[WildcatFan]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I just have to say, Chapman to the rotation means Leake or Bailey to the pen or traded. There are a lot of issues to be worked out before he gets to the rotation. If Cingrani and Corcino appear ready for AAA next year that will help Chapman.

I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.

[hebroncougar]

Originally Posted by WildcatFan

I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.

Mike Leake as the closer? No thanks. I'll take our 3rd best rotation in the league, and number one ranked bullpen. I'm not messing with success for the rest or this season. Anyone remember Randy Myers the starter from 1991? Try it in the early part of next year if you want. I'll take 57-40.

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[WildcatFan]

Originally Posted by hebroncougar

Mike Leake as the closer? No thanks. I'll take our 3rd best rotation in the league, and number one ranked bullpen. I'm not messing with success for the rest or this season. Anyone remember Randy Myers the starter from 1991? Try it in the early part of next year if you want. I'll take 57-40.

No, no. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't touch the staff this season. I'm talking about coming out of spring training next year.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by NJReds

If it's a guarantee that he could replicate that dominance over 200 innings, it'd be a no brainer. However, I'm not sure he could do that throwing mostly fastballs and the occasional slider.

If he threw 70 innings this year, would the Reds let him go 200 next year, or would it be a slow build (Verducci effect) ... 120 ... 160 ... etc.?

I think this hits the nail on the head. Call me skeptical that Chapman can replicate his results as a closer if moved to the rotation. All I've seen from him of late is an amazing fastball and an iffy slider. That amazing fastball gets a little less amazing when opposing batters see it three times in a game instead of ten times in a season.

[hebroncougar]

Originally Posted by WildcatFan

No, no. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't touch the staff this season. I'm talking about coming out of spring training next year.

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[WildcatFan]

Originally Posted by wolfboy

I think this hits the nail on the head. Call me skeptical that Chapman can replicate his results as a closer if moved to the rotation. All I've seen from him of late is an amazing fastball and an iffy slider. That amazing fastball gets a little less amazing when opposing batters see it three times in a game instead of ten times in a season.

I would disagree that the slider is iffy. He hasn't thrown it much, but he hasn't had to for reasons you stated above. Fangraphs has it at 88 mph with hard movement and a K rate in the 60s. People keep comparing his stuff to Randy Johnson's, and it'd be hard to convince me without seeing it that he wouldn't be extremely effective as a starter with two plus pitches and a developing changeup.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by WildcatFan

I don't think Leake to the pen for an extended experiment would be such a bad thing. I'd hesitate with Bailey, just because I have a hunch that you want to do as little messing with his head as possible. But I think Magic Mike could handle it. Then if Chapman sticks, you have a solid trading chip with one of them.

I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.

[OnBaseMachine]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.

I agree. He really needs to be given a chance to start next season.

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I just want to begin one season with it written in stone that Chapman will get a chance to start. Doesn't matter if Bill Bray has tender thighs, Leake's having some good outings, or if the whole bullpen pulls up lame. Just one year.

Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine

I agree. He really needs to be given a chance to start next season.

I'd like him in whatever position will help the Reds win the most games.

He's having a near historic season as a closer.

I'm happy with what he is right now.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

The thing is, you can undo the "trade" at any time. You don't lose "Aroldis Chapman, dominant closer" unless you gain a more valuable starter in return. Sure, there's some point at which a change back would make sense. But to not take the shot seems unnecessarily conservative.

With the unknown of how a pitcher may react to change like that, there is no guarantee that we would not lose Aroldis Chapman, Closer Extraordinaire.