Baseball America's Updated Reds Top 10

[redsof72]

Pedro Diaz is a guy you will be hearing more and more about. 19 years old, throws in the mid-90s.

Henry Rodriguez...not the kind of player who is gonna be on the prospect lists. He is mostly a one-tool player. I am not selling him short as a hitter because he is one of the better pure hitters in the org but he has always been a below average defensive player with (despite good stolen base numbers some years) average major league speed. He might improve enough defensively to be ok at third base if he hits enough. When you hear Ortegon say he has really improved defensively, that's coach speak for "he's much better than he was." He does not have great instincts for the game, will make some mental mistakes.

Everyone has their own opinion and who knows how things will turn out, but I would put it this way with Henry...I am thinking back to the days when people told me I was crazy when I compared Dave Sappelt to the former International League batting champion, Norris Hopper.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Pedro Diaz is a guy you will be hearing more and more about. 19 years old, throws in the mid-90s.

Henry Rodriguez...not the kind of player who is gonna be on the prospect lists. He is mostly a one-tool player. I am not selling him short as a hitter because he is one of the better pure hitters in the org but he has always been a below average defensive player with (despite good stolen base numbers some years) average major league speed. He might improve enough defensively to be ok at third base if he hits enough. When you hear Ortegon say he has really improved defensively, that's coach speak for "he's much better than he was." He does not have great instincts for the game, will make some mental mistakes.

Everyone has their own opinion and who knows how things will turn out, but I would put it this way with Henry...I am thinking back to the days when people told me I was crazy when I compared Dave Sappelt to the former International League batting champion, Norris Hopper.

I would think he could at least be a utility guy/pinch-hitter at the major league level, no? Probably a more valuable bench player than someone like Soto who can only play 1B and is a worse hitter (but does have more power).

I think of H-Rod as a switch-hitting Edwin Encarnacion with maybe slightly less power: similar numbers, similar defensive questions, similar attitude issues. Is that wrong?

FWIW I always agreed on Sappelt and never thought of him as a starting caliber OF. I see LaMarre kind of the same way- maybe more similar to Chris Heisey. Good 4th OF, not a starter on a championship team.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I think of H-Rod as a switch-hitting Edwin Encarnacion with maybe slightly less power: similar numbers, similar defensive questions, similar attitude issues. Is that wrong?

I think it is very wrong. Edwin had a lot more power than H-Rod will ever have. Not really the same kind of defensive questions. Edwin had strong defensive tools, but his arm slot was a problem that he struggled to correct. H-Rod doesn't really have good defensive tools, though they aren't bad. His problem has been a lack of effort in the past, or a lack of concentration.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I think it is very wrong. Edwin had a lot more power than H-Rod will ever have.

Encarnacion in his 20 year old season: 11 HR, .433 SLG
Rodriguez in his 20 year old season: 14 HR, .463 SLG

Encarnacion in his 21 year old season: 13 HR, .443 SLG
Rodriguez in his 21 year old season: 13 HR, .469 SLG

Encarnacion career minor league OPS (through age 24 season): .800 OPS
Rodriguez career minor league OPS (through age 22 season): .800 OPS

I acknowledged that EdE may have slightly more power, but the facts show it's pretty hard to say "he had a lot more power as a prospect than H-Rod will ever have."

His problem has been a lack of effort in the past, or a lack of concentration.

That sounds like EdE to me.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Encarnacion HR his 20 year old season: 11
Rodriguez HR in his 20 year old season: 14

Encarnacion HR in his 21 year old season: 13
Rodriguez HR in his 21 year old season: 13

Encarnacion SLG in the minors: .455
Rodriguez SLG in the minors: .442

I acknowledged that EdE may have slightly more power, but the facts show it's hard to say "he had a lot more power as a prospect than H-Rod will ever have."



That sounds like EdE to me.

Power potential, it wasn't close. Edwin had legit home run power. Rodriguez has pull down the line home run power.

Edwin didn't have a lack of concentration problem. He had an execution problem. He was like Billy Hamilton, he threw sidearmed too often and it led to throws that sailed. Rodriguez has/had a concentration problem where he simply didn't seem to be trying, wouldn't get his glove down all the way. Big difference.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Power potential, it wasn't close. Edwin had legit home run power. Rodriguez has pull down the line home run power.

Edwin didn't have a lack of concentration problem. He had an execution problem. He was like Billy Hamilton, he threw sidearmed too often and it led to throws that sailed. Rodriguez has/had a concentration problem where he simply didn't seem to be trying, wouldn't get his glove down all the way. Big difference.

I don't think you have showed anything to say the comp was "very wrong."

Sure there are some differences in the players, but I still think that's the closest comp out of anyone who's come out of the Reds system in the last 10-15 years.

You're the one who loves to bring up numbers when defending your arguments, so please, defend them.

Remember your vehemently arguing that any idiot could see that there was no comparison between Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin when they were coming up as prospects just because you retroactively looked at the numbers (disregarding any scouting reports or people who actually saw them play)? How are you taking the exact opposite angle now (ie the numbers don't matter, I know what I see)?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I don't think you have showed anything to say the comp was "very wrong."

Sure there are some differences in the players, but I still think that's the closest comp out of anyone who's come out of the Reds system in the last 10-15 years.

You're the one who loves to bring up numbers when defending your arguments, so please, defend them.

I did defend them. Edwin had 30 HR potential. Rodriguez doesn't. Edwin had execution problems with his strong defensive tools. Rodriguez doesn't have strong defensive tools.

They aren't really similar. Edwin was a Top 100 prospect for a reason. Rodriguez, even after hitting .317 in the US from rookie ball to AAA hasn't been able to sniff a Reds Top 10 placement.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Remember your vehemently arguing that any idiot could see that there was no comparison between Kurt Stillwell and Barry Larkin when they were coming up as prospects just because you retroactively looked at the numbers (disregarding any scouting reports or people who actually saw them play)? How are you taking the exact opposite angle now?

Well, for starters because any scouting reports brought up said the two were similar. But when you looked at the production, it wasn't really close. Which meant Larkin was the easy choice between the two. One guy had the tools AND the skills. One guy had the tools. It isn't an exact opposite angle.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, for starters because any scouting reports brought up said the two were similar. But when you looked at the production, it wasn't really close. Which meant Larkin was the easy choice between the two. One guy had the tools AND the skills. One guy had the tools. It isn't an exact opposite angle.

When two guys profile pretty similarly, and their minor league numbers are pretty similar, they tend to perform pretty similarly at the major league level.

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are a great example of this. Heisey had similar or better numbers as Stubbs at every step along the minor league ladder. Yet you praised Stubbs because of your own "scouting instincts", because he had the pedigree.

Well guess what? After three years in the majors, Heisey has similar or better numbers than Stubbs even still.

I would argue that up to this point, Henry Rodriguez has profiled pretty similarly to Edwin Encarnacion, and has put up very similar numbers:
They are both young 3B from the Dominican Republic who hit AA at 21 and AAA at 22. They both have good hit tools, moderate power, average speed, questionable defense and attitude. They've put up almost identical numbers leading up to their age 22 seasons.

Now I'm not guaranteeing Rodriguez will have the same career as Encarncion (especially with what EdE has done this season), but I don't think it is a ridiculous comp either- especially if Rodriguez is given a similar opportunity (which his attitude and Frazier's presence may prevent).

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

When two guys profile pretty similarly, and their minor league numbers are pretty similar, they tend to perform pretty similarly at the major league level.

Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey are a great example of this. Heisey had similar or better numbers as Stubbs at every step along the minor league ladder. Yet you praised Stubbs because of your own "scouting instincts", because he had the pedigree.

Well guess what? After three years in the majors, Heisey has similar or better numbers than Stubbs even still.

I would argue that up to this point, Henry Rodriguez has profiled pretty similarly to Edwin Encarnacion, and has put up very similar numbers. I'm not guaranteeing he'll have the same career as him (especially with what EdE has done this season), but I don't think it is a ridiculous comp either- especially if Rodriguez is given a similar opportunity (which his attitude and Frazier's presence may prevent).

Stubbs has started every day, Heisey has had most of his starts picked for him against pitchers he profiled well against. Stubbs has stronger defense. I didn't praise Stubbs, I simply thought he was going to be better than others did because I saw that he had power potential that others (on the board) didn't.

Numbers aren't profiles. They are production.

We are just going to disagree with it.

[Benihana]

not sure why this double posted- I think Redszone has a fever

[redsof72]

HRod and EE, really very different kind of players. First of all, Henry is listed at 5'10", 150 lbs. That is a badly outdated weight, but he is more of a Nick Punto type physical build where EE is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Edwin a more athletically gifted where Henry is just a hitting machine right now.

It will be interesting to see what role Henry evolves into. The main point I was making earlier that maybe I got away from a bit was then most of the guys who rank prospects like toolsy, athletic players and guys like Henry usually don't get a lot of attention because they would appear at face value to be somewhat limited (though again, players like this sometimes become better big leaguers than anyone expected). Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.

Henry is an extremely confident player who believes he belongs in the big leagues and I would bet right now he is 100 percent sure that he could hit .300 in the big leagues today. Sappelt was the same way.

I have not been as big a fan of Henry as others but I am not blind to the fact that until he gets to a level where someone proves he can't keep hitting like he has, you give him the benefit of the doubt.

In terms of make-up, pretty much the polar opposite of a Frazier type. Frazier is a great "team first" guy who will find a way to beat you. Henry is going to have to let his bat carry him in terms of value. He will need a Latin mentor on the big league club when he gets there who will get on his case when he doesn't hustle or falls asleep on defense but he can be salvaged in those areas.

[redsof72]

HRod and EE, really very different kind of players. First of all, Henry is listed at 5'10", 150 lbs. That is a badly outdated weight, but he is more of a Nick Punto type physical build where EE is listed at 6'2", 230 lbs. Edwin a more athletically gifted where Henry is just a hitting machine right now.

It will be interesting to see what role Henry evolves into. The main point I was making earlier that maybe I got away from a bit was then most of the guys who rank prospects like toolsy, athletic players and guys like Henry usually don't get a lot of attention because they would appear at face value to be somewhat limited (though again, players like this sometimes become better big leaguers than anyone expected). Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.

Henry is an extremely confident player who believes he belongs in the big leagues and I would bet right now he is 100 percent sure that he could hit .300 in the big leagues today. Sappelt was the same way.

I have not been as big a fan of Henry as others but I am not blind to the fact that until he gets to a level where someone proves he can't keep hitting like he has, you give him the benefit of the doubt.

In terms of make-up, pretty much the polar opposite of a Frazier type. Frazier is a great "team first" guy who will find a way to beat you. Henry is going to have to let his bat carry him in terms of value. He will need a Latin mentor on the big league club when he gets there who will get on his case when he doesn't hustle or falls asleep on defense but he can be salvaged in those areas.

[mace]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Henry is a short player with limited athleticsm, below average range, average speed, average arm at second base but will probably have to play third, below average instincts, WHO HAS KNOCKED THE COVER OFF THE BALL. Those kind don't get a lot of love from the prospect rankers.

The guy he somehow calls to mind--the high-end, most wildly optimistic model, admittedly--is Bill Madlock. They're similar in size, age placement in the minors, speed, hitting performance and position (both second and third base). Maybe even in disposition, although I'm not fully informed on Madlock in that regard.

[RedlegJake]

Originally Posted by mace

The guy he somehow calls to mind--the high-end, most wildly optimistic model, admittedly--is Bill Madlock. They're similar in size, age placement in the minors, speed, hitting performance and position (both second and third base). Maybe even in disposition, although I'm not fully informed on Madlock in that regard.

Actually Mad Dog isn't a bad comp, imo. Madlock was a bit bigger if I remember correctly but not much and had 10-15 homer power, mostly line pull power, but he hit to all fields and was mostly a gap line drive hitter, rarely struck out, he could make contact no matter who pitched. Fastball, curve, knuckleball didn't matter Bill could make contact. Excellent bad ball hitter, too. He didn't like to walk and though he'd take a walk he didn't walk all that often because he'd hit a pitch outside but close - and get hits doing it. Fiery temper and competitor like Rose. If HRod became 1/2 the hitter Madlock was I'd be very, very happy.

HRod needs to strike out a bit less and walk a bit more but his power numbers and everything else are very close. Of course you're talking minor league numbers to major league numbers. The K and BB numbers are not that far off either. I'm not talking a huge improvement. But shifting production to the majors IS a huge thing. But yes, his minors numbers and Madlocks major league numbers are very similar...

Now I'm not saying HRod is going to become Madlock - I see it as a wildly optimistic ceiling while his floor is like a skyscraper below that