Reds Acquire Jonathan Broxton

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Cueto keeps his walk rate in check. Broxton, this season, has walked 60% more batters per 9 innings than Johnny Cueto. Cueto has well above average control. Broxton, not so much.

Other than Chapman and Marshall (our premier relievers), Broxton's walk rate is the same as Simon's, and better than Lecure's, Ondrusek's, Arredondo, and Bray. It's even better than Nick Masset's BB/9 in 2010 (3.9) and 2011 (4.0).

And the clincher is, he's coming off of surgery.

Cueto's walk rate, BB/9, in 2012 is 2.2.
Broxton's is 3.5.

I dunno. I multiply 2.2 x .6 (60%) and I get 1.32.
I multiply 2.2 x .16 (16%) and I get 3.52.
Seems to me Broxton's BB/9 is 16% higher than Cueto, not 60% as you profess.

In other words, Broxton's walk rate is tied for third best in our reliever corps. His e.r.a. is probably top 3 in the bullpen. His groundball rate is probably tops.

I think we're getting a decent reliever, coming off surgery, regaining his form and velocity, and he's still only 28 years old and has all of that past experience including postseason. Lots of upside with very little downside.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Other than Chapman and Marshall (our premier relievers), Broxton's walk rate is the same as Simon's, and better than Lecure's, Ondrusek's, Arredondo, and Bray. It's even better than Nick Masset's BB/9 in 2010 (3.9) and 2011 (4.0).

And the clincher is, he's coming off of surgery.

Cueto's walk rate, BB/9, in 2012 is 2.2.
Broxton's is 3.5.

I dunno. I multiply 2.2 x .6 (60%) and I get 1.32.
I multiply 2.2 x .16 (16%) and I get 3.52.
Seems to me Broxton's BB/9 is 16% higher than Cueto, not 60% as you profess.

In other words, Broxton's walk rate is tied for third best in our reliever corps. His e.r.a. is probably top 3 in the bullpen. His groundball rate is probably tops.

I think we're getting a decent reliever, coming off surgery, regaining his form and velocity, and he's still only 28 years old and has all of that past experience including postseason. Lots of upside with very little downside.

2.2 x .6 = 1.3
2.2 + 1.3 = 3.5

Johnny Cueto would have to walk 60% more batters than he does right now to have the same walk rate as Jonathan Broxton does right now.

As it has been shown, Broxton really isn't gaining velocity.

The difference with Broxton and Simon, LeCure and Arredondo and their walk rates is that those guys also strike out plenty of guys. Broxton doesn't.

[I(heart)Freel]

Where was the love for this post? Thank you Vottomatic!

This illustrates my belief that Broxton is (1) better than the worst reliever in the pen and (2) not nearly the gas-can he's been made out to me. This means he likely improves the Reds short term.

Whether it improves the club long term is a debate for a future date.

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Well, actually that's not true. I just happened to already have 2 tabs of baseball -reference.com open and have both of them side by side.

K/9 - 2012
Cueto - 6.8
Broxton - 6.3
Ondrusek - 5.9
Arredondo - 9.9
Chapman - 17.0
Simon - 8.0
Bray - 7.3 (small sample - 2012)
Lecure - 8.9

BB/9 - 2012
Cueto - 2.2
Broxton - 3.5
Ondrusek - 5.0
Arredondo - 5.3
Chapman - 2.5
Bray - 14.5 (small sample)
Lecure - 4.5
Simon - 3.5

On baseball-reference.com, according to his 2012 game log with KC.
Broxton has pitched in 35 games.
He pitched 1 inning in 33 games.
He pitched .2 inning in 1 game and 2 innings in another game.

In 35 games, he walked zero batter in 24 of those games.
In 11 games, he walked 1 batter in 8 of those.
in 3 others, he walked 2 batters. Blew 2 games when he walked 2.
Took 2 losses due to giving up untimely hits but no walks.

I think this idea that he walks everyone is pretty much proven wrong by the fact he didn't issue a walk in 24 of his 35 appearances. And compared to the rest of our bullpen, other than Chapman, he's tied with Simon for the next lowest BB/9 and everyone else is worse.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

2.2 x .6 = 1.3
2.2 + 1.3 = 3.5

Johnny Cueto would have to walk 60% more batters than he does right now to have the same walk rate as Jonathan Broxton does right now.

As it has been shown, Broxton really isn't gaining velocity.

The difference with Broxton and Simon, LeCure and Arredondo and their walk rates is that those guys also strike out plenty of guys. Broxton doesn't.

Brutus posted the monthly stat that shows that his fastball IS increasing in velocity.

Originally Posted by Brutus The Pimp

Also, as far as the improving velocity subject, Brooks' FX chart has Broxton's fastball speed by month as:

March (94.48)
April (95.79)
May (95.95)
June (95.66)
July (96.72)

As for my math, yeah, had a brain cramp. 50% of 2.2 is 1.1, so yes 1.3 is 60%. BUT.......you make it out like he's some walk machine, when in truth, his walk rate is better than Ondrusek's, Bray's, Arredondo's, Masset's (2010, 2011), Lecure's. Other than Marshall and Chapman, it makes Broxton's walk rate the third best in the bullpen. The Reds bullpen is 2nd in all of mlb.

And again, Broxton's other numbers are better than most in the Reds bullpen:
e.r.a. - 2nd best
HR/9 - 1st
BB/9 - tied for 3rd best
Ground ball rate - 1st

He's going to be statistically, other than K/9, the third best pitcher in the bullpen. And the bullpen is the 2nd best in mlb.

There is no way that this is a bad thing.

[Always Red]

...and he has only pitched 35 innings since 3 bone chips were removed from his elbow last winter. I think that needs to be remembered when his stats from last year and this year are discussed- where he is in recovery.

I'm not all that excited about Broxton; I know he's not the closer he was with the Dodgers a few years ago, nor do I expect him to be.

But I think he's better than Bray, and at least the equal of Arredondo and Ondrusek. That can't be a bad thing. Add Masset to that (maybe- who knows if he'll ever be healthy again?) and Dusty can go with the hot hand.

[Always Red]

nm- the dreaded double post

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Always Red

nm- the dreaded double post

It always brings that Yogi Berra quote up when I see a double post:

"It's like deja vu all over again."

[nate]

Originally Posted by jojo

No problem...i'm always happy to draw a graph....

Perhaps this is a good time for a Haiku:

Subtle rose petal,
Reaching skyward standing tall
Like dew covered truth.

The bro ritual
Hands arc across the heavens
Highest of high fives

[nate]

While I think it improves the bullpen, it feels like an overpay to me.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

posted the monthly stat that shows that his fastball IS increasing in velocity.

His fast ball velocity is NOT increasing.

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

As for my math, yeah, had a brain cramp. 50% of 2.2 is 1.1, so yes 1.3 is 60%. BUT.......you make it out like he's some walk machine, when in truth, his walk rate is better than Ondrusek's, Bray's, Arredondo's, Masset's (2010, 2011), Lecure's. Other than Marshall and Chapman, it makes Broxton's walk rate the third best in the bullpen. The Reds bullpen is 2nd in all of mlb.

And again, Broxton's other numbers are better than most in the Reds bullpen:
e.r.a. - 2nd best
HR/9 - 1st
BB/9 - tied for 3rd best
Ground ball rate - 1st

He's going to be statistically, other than K/9, the third best pitcher in the bullpen. And the bullpen is the 2nd best in mlb.

There is no way that this is a bad thing.

He might do well. He might do considerably worse than his season to date with the Royals.

We have no reason to beleive his velocity will increase but there are reasons to expect his LOB%, HR/FB% and even his GB% to regress toward values that would negatively impact his ERA.

[DGullett35]

I think it was an overpay also. However I think he will help us short term and is def. the best option for our set-up man at the current time. He makes the bullpen stronger and thats always a good thing.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by nate

The bro ritual
Hands arc across the heavens
Highest of high fives

Hi five hi five hi
five hi five hi five hi five
hi five hi five hi

[pedro]

Nm

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by jojo

His fast ball velocity is NOT increasing.

The Pitch FX data on Brooks Baseball says otherwise.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by I(heart)Freel

Whether it improves the club long term is a debate for a future date.

Another nice thing about this move.
Let's say Broxton does well for the rest of the year, he enjoys being a Red, and wants to come back.
That makes it a lot easier to move Chapman to the rotation next year.
No guarantee everything works out, but this could be a long term fix as well.. Broxton is still pretty young, and seems to be recovering from surgery this fine.

Short term, I like Broxton a lot better than Bray (the guy he's replacing).