When do we start talking about re-signing Ludwick

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Dialtone...

I don't think so. They want a SS and/or 3B. Frazier is arguably ROY at 3B. Cozart or DiDi gives you one of the better young, major league ready SS in the game. Plus in addition they get a top 100 pitching prospect (Corcino or Cingrani) or another prospect they really like. The third package gives them their #2/3 starter, and rumor has it they were ready to deal Upton for Garza. Bailey has outperformed Garza this year and doesn't have the same salary or current health issues. Plus, of course, there would be other pieces in that deal as well (ie Heisey and H-Rod).

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I don't think so. They want a SS and/or 3B. Frazier is arguably ROY at 3B. Cozart or DiDi gives you one of the better young, major league ready SS in the game. Plus in addition they get a top 100 pitching prospect (Corcino or Cingrani) or another prospect they really like. The third package gives them their #2 starter, and rumor has it they were ready to deal Upton for Garza. Bailey has outperformed Garza this year and doesn't have the same salary or current health issues.

I don't think an Upton deal gets done without Hamilton. Not to mention, the Reds will need the D'Backs to throw in a decent amount of change to make the dollars even come close to working, which is going to cost more prospects.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I don't think an Upton deal gets done without Hamilton. Not to mention, the Reds will need the D'Backs to throw in a decent amount of change to make the dollars even come close to working, which is going to cost more prospects.

Not sure the Reds will need the money if they don't sign Ludwick and they include someone like Bailey, who is due to make a chunk of change next year. Maybe they will, but who knows.

If the D-backs require Hamilton, I probably take a pass- much like the Reds did with Garza and Johnson at the deadline. I doubt a higher rated prospect gets moved for Upton though. It's pretty rare to see a Top 25 prospect get traded these days (see the trading deadline for evidence).

The Rangers weren't trading Profar or Olt. The Dodgers weren't trading Lee. etc.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Trading away Edinson Volquez helped give the Reds the flexibility to make the signing happen.

Ahhhhhhhhh.....you can't talk about Payflex. That isn't allowed, I am sure of it. Check the unwritten board rules. No mentions of Neftali Perez signings is another.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Benihana

See my earlier post.

First choice: They exercise the mutual $5MM option.
Second choice: Offer him a 2 year $10MM deal.
Third choice: Let him walk and trade for Upton.

I just think there is a good chance that is an 0 for 3 proposition. Unless you wanted to bump that 10 MM up a bit...is 10 MM your max?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I just think there is a good chance that is an 0 for 3 proposition. Unless you wanted to bump that 10 MM up a bit...is 10 MM your max?

For me with Ludwick, yes.

If he could get much more than that from someone else, I'd wish him well. I'd be surprised, but then again, you can find a team to do something stupid every year.

Ludwick clearly has to be in a hitters' park to be effective, and Colorado's OF is full. He's also 34 years old. I love what he's done for the Reds this year, and hope that he would stay (maybe even take less to stay) given his stated affection for the city and the club. But I would not give him more of a commitment than a 2 year, $10MM deal. I think there may be better bargains (including lefthanded options) to be had elsewhere, even if we can't trade for Justin Upton.

[medford]

as I stated above, I might go 2 years, 12 mil, I think he'd get similar offers, but nothing significantly greater on the FA market.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by medford

as I stated above, I might go 2 years, 12 mil, I think he'd get similar offers, but nothing significantly greater on the FA market.

I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

Ahhhhhhhhh.....you can't talk about Payflex. That isn't allowed, I am sure of it. Check the unwritten board rules. No mentions of Neftali Perez signings is another.

http://memecreator.net/the-most-interesting-man-in-the-world/showimage.php/4423/i-don't-always-play-by-the-rules-that-is-all..jpg

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

Remember, you're paying for a 34 year old player who hasn't OPS'd above .800 since 2008.

2 years, $10MM- not a penny more for me. There are better places to commit $21MM, including the current RF on the Diamondbacks and the Yankees.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

He's not even an everyday player yet. He's not worth those kinds of bucks. We can re-visit this at the end of the year but as of right now, you offer him the $5mill option and that's it. He needs the Reds and GABP as much as the Reds need him...maybe more so

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

He's not even an everyday player yet. He's not worth those kinds of bucks. We can re-visit this at the end of the year but as of right now, you offer him the $5mill option and that's it. He needs the Reds and GABP as much as the Reds need him...maybe more so

He's an everyday player in the sense that he's outright won the LF job. He just plays a little less than many starters only because Dusty is committed to keeping him fresh. But he's basically an everyday player in spirit.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by westofyou

When do "we" start talking about his contract?

When the season is over and all the data is complete and the thrill of the past week has tempered?

Incorrect (at least if this thread is any indication).

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I don't think any of us are too far apart on the numbers, I just see a 3 yr 21 MM deal being the sweet spot, with the last year being a team option for 7 MM. This assumes he continues his yearly pace and finishes with over .850 OPS and over 25 HR.

Let's be careful here. When you're a low-mid revenue team, there's almost always more risk in signing a guy who who turns out to not produce up to his contract than there is in losing a guy you could have had at a discount.

With the former, you lose any opportunity to remedy the problem. With the latter, you've missed on "buy low" opportunity -- but there are still others.

If a guy is a unique talent who cannot otherwise be replaced, you take that risk on the multi-year deal. Otherwise, let's err conservative.

[jojo]

When do you start talking? When the dust settles unless the Reds have some reason to think he's a substantially different player now than he was in the offseason. I doubt they do.