Monday August 6 Minor League Updates

[19braves77]

Every arm on the Pensacola staff looks tired.

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He is 26, in AAA and not hitting his body weight. I would feel pretty comfortable saying he isn't much of a prospect.

Well, as recently as this spring, he was considered a candidate (albeit an outside one) for a major-league roster spot. No doubt, he has had a wretched season, in particular the first half. It could have been a BABIP regression, it could have been a minor injury, it could have been a funk, it could have been a return to true form; who knows? He has straightened himself out lately, for what it's worth. The consensus is that he has some excellent tools (among them a fabulous arm). And the organization certainly seems to see something in him. It put him on the 40-man. The Bats keep hitting him first and third in the lineup, in spite of his awful numbers. Our own top 40 this year had him at #20. I think there's some room in all of that for opinion.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mace

Well, as recently as this spring, he was considered a candidate (albeit an outside one) for a major-league roster spot. No doubt, he has had a wretched season, in particular the first half. It could have been a BABIP regression, it could have been a minor injury, it could have been a funk, it could have been a return to true form; who knows? He has straightened himself out lately, for what it's worth. The consensus is that he has some excellent tools (among them a fabulous arm). And the organization certainly seems to see something in him. It put him on the 40-man. The Bats keep hitting him first and third in the lineup, in spite of his awful numbers. Our own top 40 this year had him at #20. I think there's some room in all of that for opinion.

He does have some good tools. And he might be a 4th or 5th outfielder. His entire career looks awfully similar with the exception of last season when his BABIP was off the charts kinds of crazy.

I ranked him at #40 last season and don't think that was a mistake. He is 26 and has never really put up a season where his peripherals were good. That is not the kind of guy who is much of a prospect. Next season is his 'prime age' season. I wouldn't expect much from him at this point.

[mace]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He does have some good tools. And he might be a 4th or 5th outfielder. His entire career looks awfully similar with the exception of last season when his BABIP was off the charts kinds of crazy.

I ranked him at #40 last season and don't think that was a mistake. He is 26 and has never really put up a season where his peripherals were good. That is not the kind of guy who is much of a prospect. Next season is his 'prime age' season. I wouldn't expect much from him at this point.

Can't really disagree with any of that, except for the caveat that any player who remains in the picture for a big-league roster spot may, in my opinion, be regarded as a "decent" prospect, which is what was stated in post #7.

My main purpose (in post #14) was to take exception to post #11. It just rubs me wrong when someone responds to a post with an unequivocal, blanket statement that says, in effect, "you were idiotically wrong." I think we're better than that on here. At least, I hope so.

[The Rage]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Watched his outing last night. He had trouble getting the ball down, and he did not throw secondary stuff for strikes all that often. But he's got good velo, obviously, and his fastball has strong tail on it. If he can get it down consistently, he'll be nasty. Secondary stuff looks decent -- just a matter of refining command. Definitely liked what I saw, though I wouldn't say he's an obvious ace in the making. He could get there in time, we'll see.

He sits at 94-96 in the pros, he probably is a ace in the making. That is the key.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by The Rage

He sits at 94-96 in the pros, he probably is a ace in the making. That is the key.

Not just that, in each game he has thrown multiple good or better pitches with each of his offspeed pitches. He needs to improve his command, but the amount of 19 year olds who don't can generally be counted on one hand. If he remains healthy, he should be a very good pitcher.

[lollipopcurve]

Not just that, in each game he has thrown multiple good or better pitches with each of his offspeed pitches. He needs to improve his command, but the amount of 19 year olds who don't can generally be counted on one hand. If he remains healthy, he should be a very good pitcher.

I agree. Definitely a guy to be optimistic about. Last night was likely not the sharpest he's been, and he will improve over time, for sure. Is he "special"? I am not ready to say that, that's all.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I agree. Definitely a guy to be optimistic about. Last night was likely not the sharpest he's been, and he will improve over time, for sure. Is he "special"? I am not ready to say that, that's all.

I guess that depends on your definition of special. I have seen three of his starts now. He is the most special feeling guy the Reds have had since I started doing this whole prospect thing at some point in 2004.

[lollipopcurve]

I guess that depends on your definition of special. I have seen three of his starts now. He is the most special feeling guy the Reds have had since I started doing this whole prospect thing at some point in 2004.

I guess I'd say a couple things. First, it's encouraging to hear that. Second -- TINSTAAP. I withhold getting too amped about almost any young arm. A guy like Bundy could qualify as an exception, but not Stephenson, at least not yet.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I guess I'd say a couple things. First, it's encouraging to hear that. Second -- TINSTAAP. I withhold getting too amped about almost any young arm. A guy like Bundy could qualify as an exception, but not Stephenson, at least not yet.

I never have and never will buy into the theory that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Of course there is. Are they tougher to identify with the accuracy of hitters? Sure they are. But they are out there, they do exist and they always have.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Second -- TINSTAAP. I withhold getting too amped about almost any young arm. A guy like Bundy could qualify as an exception, but not Stephenson, at least not yet.

Never understood that. Outside of injury, which seems to be happening less and less these days, why should we get less amped up for pitchers? If anything, I feel more confident projecting pitchers than hitters just because stuff and location plays anywhere. It seems like even when hitters reach the bigs, we still don't know quite what to expect until scouting reports get out and pitchers adjust. If Stephenson can eventually command the pitches he has right now, I feel pretty confident in him being an ace caliber pitcher.

[lollipopcurve]

The TINSTAAP thing is based on the fact that pitchers can have catastrophic injuries. Pretty simple idea. Of course, given that this applies to most all minor league pitchers, you can simply ignore it. I'd also say there are more variables that go into the development of a major league ready starter than go into the development of an everyday position player. Beyond health, there's the development of fastball command and the development of secondary stuff. Then the finer points -- pitch efficiency, working out of jams, holding runners. Basically -- there's more to pitching than there is to hitting.

I like Stephenson's chances -- a lot. But he is not a shoo-in ace at this point, IMO. Those guys are rare and take years to develop, including years at the major league level for almost all of them.

[lollipopcurve]

double post

[Cooper]

I'm not better than that. He's not a prospect- if you tried to trade him right now, you might be able to get a low A lefthanded middle reliever for him. I should've explained more and it might have felt like i was taking exception with a good post and i found something wrong with one small thing- i try not to do that very often, but in this case i ran out of time. I don't think you are "idiotically wrong" about anything nor did i imply that.

[Tony Cloninger]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Every top pitching prospect in the system went tonight except for Cingrani and Lotzkar. I'd like to see Guillon get some reps in Dayton before the year is out.

I think those 2 have hit a wall....especially Lotzkar.