Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[Brisco]

All

I love reading the minor league board at Redszone because it consistently has info about future reds you cannot find anywhere else.

That said... I was wondering if it would be a good idea to start a Billy Hamilton Stolen Base record thread and hopefully have the mods make it a sticky.

I think he is now 30 steals behind the record (115 and Coleman is at 145). Isn't that close enough for Redszone to start an official countdown?

Brisco

[RedlegJake]

I think that's a good idea Brisco!

[medford]

They could, but I suspect this thread would be bumped enough along the way that it wouldn't add a whole lot; don't think you'll have to scroll down far to find a Billy thread in this forum as he gets closer to the stolen base record.

[MikeS21]

I really hope this stolen base record chasing doesn't affect Hamilton's learning curve. I think he'll be so focused on breaking the record that he may learn some bad habits and be too aggressive. He already gets caught stealing far too many times. He needs to work on not getting caught, rather than running for some meaningless record.

He needs to learn to read pitchers much better. This time in the minor leagues is for learning how to perfect the craft - not breaking records.

[medford]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I really hope this stolen base record chasing doesn't affect Hamilton's learning curve. I think he'll be so focused on breaking the record that he may learn some bad habits and be too aggressive. He already gets caught stealing far too many times. He needs to work on not getting caught, rather than running for some meaningless record.

He needs to learn to read pitchers much better. This time in the minor leagues is for learning how to perfect the craft - not breaking records.

I've read more than once, that in order for stolen bases to add to the expected run total of a team, a base stealer needs to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 71-73% or higher in stolen base %.

Billy was successful 83.2% of the time in Bakersfield (104/125)
Billy has been successful 73.3% of the time in Pensacola (11/15)

Overall Billy has been successful 82.14% of the time. Run Billy Run (ignoring the potential for injury or wear and tear of that many stolen base attempts)

I don't think anyone could argue that Billy is getting caught way too often. IMHO, the best way to learn how not to get caught stealing bases is to keep attempting them to improve your reads on pitchers, catcher pops times, ways to slide into base to avoid a tag, etc... Life has no better teacher than experience.

[sigep529]

Double header against the Tennessee Smokies tonight...

Get to see Hamilton x2 and Cingrani in the second game.

[Grande Donkey]

Kevin Goldstein
‏@Kevin_Goldstein

It's been discussed. RT @owaistabish: @Kevin_Goldstein any possibility of B. hamilton being called up to be used a PR down the stretch?

Hadn't seen this mentioned but found it interesting.

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I really hope this stolen base record chasing doesn't affect Hamilton's learning curve. I think he'll be so focused on breaking the record that he may learn some bad habits and be too aggressive. He already gets caught stealing far too many times. He needs to work on not getting caught, rather than running for some meaningless record.

He needs to learn to read pitchers much better. This time in the minor leagues is for learning how to perfect the craft - not breaking records.

Originally Posted by medford

I don't think anyone could argue that Billy is getting caught way too often. IMHO, the best way to learn how not to get caught stealing bases is to keep attempting them to improve your reads on pitchers, catcher pops times, ways to slide into base to avoid a tag, etc... Life has no better teacher than experience.

Yep. He was very successful in Bakersfield. He is learning that it's tougher to swipe a bag in Double-A. It's essential negative feedback, and I believe he'll make adjustments.

[Homer Bailey]

And while this is an exciting development and worth following closely, I can’t help but think prospect followers are missing something after watching Hamilton play. Instead of salivating over the speed, it’s time to start focusing on the other aspects of his all-around game and discuss whether the sum of the parts equals a contributing big leaguer at the game’s highest level.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...s-other-tools/

Great fangraphs article that underlies the reason why some, including myself, are not nearly as high on Hamilton as his biggest fans, and why I wouldn't hesitate to include him in the right deal.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...s-other-tools/

Great fangraphs article that underlies the reason why some, including myself, are not nearly as high on Hamilton as his biggest fans, and why I wouldn't hesitate to include him in the right deal.

Mike saw plenty of the same things I have seen with Hamilton's swing. I will say that I think if he saw him a little more that he would see better sides to Hamilton from the left side too, because it is there at times.

[Brutus]

While, from a scouting standpoint, I think there are some legitimate issues raised, there's kind of a double standard being drawn in saying not to focus on the steals but ignoring the fact Hamilton's OBP is over .400. BP displays are irrelevant if the guy is getting it done in games.

The article mentions that Hamilton is good at driving the ball in the ground and using his speed to get on base. Well, that's a proven recipe for success because groundball hitters might not hit for a lot of power, but they'll get on base quite often with his kind of speed. And that he's been able to have good plate discipline on top of that, it seems his skill level carries over to the kind of guy that can support a .350+ OBP in the majors. With his speed, that's an impact player.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

While, from a scouting standpoint, I think there are some legitimate issues raised, there's kind of a double standard being drawn in saying not to focus on the steals but ignoring the fact Hamilton's OBP is over .400. BP displays are irrelevant if the guy is getting it done in games.

The article mentions that Hamilton is good at driving the ball in the ground and using his speed to get on base. Well, that's a proven recipe for success because groundball hitters might not hit for a lot of power, but they'll get on base quite often with his kind of speed. And that he's been able to have good plate discipline on top of that, it seems his skill level carries over to the kind of guy that can support a .350+ OBP in the majors. With his speed, that's an impact player.

At the same time, Mike also notes that he thinks there is some concern that Hamilton isn't going to be able to handle MLB velocity either. I don't know that I agree with that completely, but he isn't the first guy I have heard say it either. You are right though, if Hamilton can OBP .340 or higher, he is going to be valuable as heck.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the same time, Mike also notes that he thinks there is some concern that Hamilton isn't going to be able to handle MLB velocity either. I don't know that I agree with that completely, but he isn't the first guy I have heard say it either. You are right though, if Hamilton can OBP .340 or higher, he is going to be valuable as heck.

MLB velocity is a bit of a myth....Sure there are a ton of pitchers who throw 90 to 95 mph as starters however there are a lot MLB pitchers who have a 88 mph fastball, 15 MPH speed change between fastball and offspeed, throw nasty breaking stuff, and have 15 year careers...Last night one no hit us for 5.2 innings...

In the minors however there are few pitchers who throw that 15 mph gap and have an excellent off speed pitcher, with a nasty curve...

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

At the same time, Mike also notes that he thinks there is some concern that Hamilton isn't going to be able to handle MLB velocity either. I don't know that I agree with that completely, but he isn't the first guy I have heard say it either. You are right though, if Hamilton can OBP .340 or higher, he is going to be valuable as heck.

I definitely think that's a fair consideration. I guess my main point is that he seems to be looking at the list of minor league stolen base leaders and pigeonholing Hamilton a bit. As you and I agree on, if Hamilton's current skillset carries over to the majors, he's going to be incredibly valuable. All he needs to do is put the ball in play with grounders or line drives, and use his eye at the plate and speed on the base paths to do the rest. If he does that, we're looking at a .750-.800 OPS and a guy that can steal over 80 bases.

If his premise is that Hamilton might not be able to hit big league pitching, I concur the jury might be out on that. His current skillset as it's being shown, however, would carry over nicely if he's not overpowered at the next level.

[kaldaniels]

nm