Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bellhead

MLB velocity is a bit of a myth....Sure there are a ton of pitchers who throw 90 to 95 mph as starters however there are a lot MLB pitchers who have a 88 mph fastball, 15 MPH speed change between fastball and offspeed, throw nasty breaking stuff, and have 15 year careers...Last night one no hit us for 5.2 innings...

In the minors however there are few pitchers who throw that 15 mph gap and have an excellent off speed pitcher, with a nasty curve...

It isn't that the velocity is different, it is that they can throw just as hard to the spot that they want to, where as guys in the minors who can do that are very few and far between.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It isn't that the velocity is different, it is that they can throw just as hard to the spot that they want to, where as guys in the minors who can do that are very few and far between.

Yep.

Also, gun readings are over-rated. Give me a guy who throws 88 MPH with wicked movement over a guy who throws straight-as-an-arrow 95 MPH heat. Movement and location count for a lot more than velocity. Of course, having all three is nice, but velocity without movement or location is pretty useless.

[dougdirt]

You can try to teach movement to a 95 MPH guy. Can't teach 95 MPH to an 88 MPH guy. But that is another topic all to itself.

[Jamz]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...s-other-tools/

Great fangraphs article that underlies the reason why some, including myself, are not nearly as high on Hamilton as his biggest fans, and why I wouldn't hesitate to include him in the right deal.

The problem is that the article is still very shortsighted. Hamilton is still quite raw, and the only reason people are talking about fast-tracking him is because of his steals. Yes he's putting up pretty gaudy numbers in general, but anyone can see that he needs more polish before coming up. All reports are his athleticism, adaptability and work ethic are very high level. You don't just give up on someone with his tools and that has shown the kind of progress that he has so far in his career.

You could trade him for a good player, or you can hope to get one of the most potent weapons in the league if he develops properly. With the way our team is structured right now we can afford to take that chance.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...s-other-tools/

Great fangraphs article that underlies the reason why some, including myself, are not nearly as high on Hamilton as his biggest fans, and why I wouldn't hesitate to include him in the right deal.

I used to feel the same way about Hamilton, and was willing to trade him in the right deal. I thought he was a switchhitting slaphitter, who was a novelty basestealer.

But his progression through the minors this year has changed my mind, including articles I've read where his coaches applaud his tighter swing and line drive/ground ball hitting tendencies where he can take advantage of his speed.

They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.

I've come around on him and really hope he makes it to the Bigs and can be a Jose Reyes type player. No pressure intended.

Besides, the Reds have very few remaining parts they need, so trading isn't a pressing issue. And of the parts they do need, Hamilton's abilities fit the bill if he can translate them to the big league.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I used to feel the same way about Hamilton, and was willing to trade him in the right deal. I thought he was a switchhitting slaphitter, who was a novelty basestealer.

But his progression through the minors this year has changed my mind, including articles I've read where his coaches applaud his tighter swing and line drive/ground ball hitting tendencies where he can take advantage of his speed.

They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.

I've come around on him and really hope he makes it to the Bigs and can be a Jose Reyes type player. No pressure intended.

Besides, the Reds have very few remaining parts they need, so trading isn't a pressing issue. And of the parts they do need, Hamilton's abilities fit the bill if he can translate them to the big league.

That says it all for me as well.

[membengal]

Are the reds overflowing with guys with leadoff potential who may be a threat to obp at the .360 level and swipe 70+ bags?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by membengal

Are the reds overflowing with guys with leadoff potential who may be a threat to obp at the .360 level and swipe 70+ bags?

Nope. I would say Hamilton is probably the only guy in the system like that.

[puca]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Nope. I would say Hamilton is probably the only guy in the system like that.

Heck I'm not even concerned about the 70+ steals. I just want someone with speed getting on base 36%+ of the time in front of Votto. I imagine he would easily score from first on most doubles.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Jamz

The problem is that the article is still very shortsighted. Hamilton is still quite raw, and the only reason people are talking about fast-tracking him is because of his steals.

I disagree. I think his OB numbers are quite impressive as is the fact that one month into AA his numbers have not really dropped from high A. Everywhere we hear what a huge jump it is from high A to AA. You gotta be impressed with how this kid is learning the game of baseball.

[757690]

They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.

This is what most scouts saw early on, and why I'm excited about Hamilton's future. I agree he needs to work on his left handed swing, but he has plenty of time to improve it, and he already has made leaps and bounds from where he was just last year from the left side. His work ethic and mentality is as strong as I have ever seen from a minor league prospect.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I used to feel the same way about Hamilton, and was willing to trade him in the right deal. I thought he was a switchhitting slaphitter, who was a novelty basestealer.

But his progression through the minors this year has changed my mind, including articles I've read where his coaches applaud his tighter swing and line drive/ground ball hitting tendencies where he can take advantage of his speed.

They've also applauded his work ethic, athleticism, willingness to learn and adjust. He seems like a guy who is doing all the right things to get better, not to mention his natural God-given ability.

I've come around on him and really hope he makes it to the Bigs and can be a Jose Reyes type player. No pressure intended.

Besides, the Reds have very few remaining parts they need, so trading isn't a pressing issue. And of the parts they do need, Hamilton's abilities fit the bill if he can translate them to the big league.

Obviously Hamilton's minor league OBP is extremely impressive. My concern is just that he's not going to be able to draw walks in the majors. It's pretty rare for guys with such little power to be able to draw walks in the majors, with Brett Gardner amongst others being exceptions. Obviously if he keeps an OBP of .350 or greater, he is going to have a significant impact, and probably a pretty awesome career. I just have concerns about whether he can do that. The Dee Gordon comp isn't perfect because Gordon didn't really walk that much in the minors, but his lack of success has me very gun shy.

By my comp Billy's walk rate is about 14-15% for the year. Does anyone think he can do that in the majors?

[IslandRed]

My opinion on Hamilton hasn't changed much. The kid was a major project. How many guys are drafted in the second round and then immediately start learning to switch-hit? It was an absurdly-high-upside project, with all the attendant risks of projects, and considering everything, there aren't a lot of truly meaningful comps out there to judge. "Renowned minor-league basestealers" or "typical guy at his age/level" doesn't quite paint the whole picture.

I also know that 3+ years after drafting, he's probably at or ahead of schedule and he still has the buzz of a potential difference-maker. Of course it's not a sure thing. Only the rarest of prospects are. But I also know that stars are harder to come by than a lot of people like to believe, they're really tough to trade for if they're not rentals or absurdly expensive, and the Reds aren't going to win many bidding wars for the veteran variety. So where are the Reds going to find stars if not from their farm system? How many guys really have the ability to be one? I want the Reds to keep those guys around, not trade them -- unless the trade brings back a guy just as good we can keep around for awhile. I don't like trading "A" talent at a discount just to mitigate the risk of the prospect not panning out. Same reasons I've never been for trading Chapman barring something ridiculously in the Reds' favor. Some guys just have something that can't quite be duplicated and I like to be patient with them.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Obviously Hamilton's minor league OBP is extremely impressive. My concern is just that he's not going to be able to draw walks in the majors. It's pretty rare for guys with such little power to be able to draw walks in the majors, with Brett Gardner amongst others being exceptions. Obviously if he keeps an OBP of .350 or greater, he is going to have a significant impact, and probably a pretty awesome career. I just have concerns about whether he can do that. The Dee Gordon comp isn't perfect because Gordon didn't really walk that much in the minors, but his lack of success has me very gun shy.

By my comp Billy's walk rate is about 14-15% for the year. Does anyone think he can do that in the majors?

Don't walk rates generally carry over from the minors to majors rather consistently? Even if it's not 15%, if he walks 10% in the majors, that bodes really well for his future. With his speed, a .100 isoD would make him a holy terror given an expected BABIP that will surely be over .300.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Don't walk rates generally carry over from the minors to majors rather consistently? Even if it's not 15%, if he walks 10% in the majors, that bodes really well for his future. With his speed, a .100 isoD would make him a holy terror given an expected BABIP that will surely be over .300.

Generally they do, but generalities don't really work with a player who has a skillset like Hamilton because guys with his skillset don't often make it to the Majors (lots of speed, absolutely no power).