Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I think Hamilton will add quality muscle weight and hit for better power.

I think Billy's lack of power is overblown. He's never going to be a homerun hitter, but he's not a total slap hitter.

2009 - 9 XBH in 180 PA
2010 - 25 XBH in 316 PA
2011 - 30 XBH in 610 PA
2011 - 36 XBH in 535 PA

He's definitely capable hitting the ball into the gaps, if not over the fence.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

It is more of a common sense type of thing than a "so and so" did it in the past.

I thought the whole point of sabermetrics was to do away the 'its just common sense' mentality and use cold, hard facts to either prove or disprove those opinions.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I thought the whole point of sabermetrics was to do away the 'its just common sense' mentality and use cold, hard facts to either prove or disprove those opinions.

What does this have to do with sabermetrics?

[757690]

I thought Elvis Andus wouldn't be able to keep his walk rate up in the majors, due to lack of power, and I was wrong. Not sure why he can keep it up, but if he can, maybe Hamilton can?

[dougdirt]

I guess with Andrus there are a few things at play. First, he played a full season in the Majors at 20. You would expect a teenager to generally gain a tad bit of plate discipline moving forward. Doesn't always happen, but you do expect it in most cases. In the minors from age 16-19 he walked 8.4% of the time. In the Majors he isn't really walking much more than that (9.1% over the last three years).

At a young age he showed a solid ability to draw a walk. Under 10% though to me is just taking advantage of pitchers who can't always throw strikes. Right now though, Hamilton is walking as much as Joey Votto. That isn't going to happen. If Hamilton walks as often as Andrus, I don't think it would surprise anyone. 9% seems reasonable. 14%, that doesn't.

[Jamz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I guess with Andrus there are a few things at play. First, he played a full season in the Majors at 20. You would expect a teenager to generally gain a tad bit of plate discipline moving forward. Doesn't always happen, but you do expect it in most cases. In the minors from age 16-19 he walked 8.4% of the time. In the Majors he isn't really walking much more than that (9.1% over the last three years).

At a young age he showed a solid ability to draw a walk. Under 10% though to me is just taking advantage of pitchers who can't always throw strikes. Right now though, Hamilton is walking as much as Joey Votto. That isn't going to happen. If Hamilton walks as often as Andrus, I don't think it would surprise anyone. 9% seems reasonable. 14%, that doesn't.

Hamilton is walking at a 17.5% rate in AA right now -- those are literally current Votto numbers. What makes it even more impressive is that even Votto wasn't walking at a clip comparable to that in the minors. Hamilton's pitch recognition abilities have been advancing through the roof. Even if you think that his walk rate will suffer when hitting the majors it's not like they're going to completely disappear.

For the most part if you look at almost any player walk rates tend to transition pretty closely when moving up. Considering that Hamilton is still developing I wouldn't be surprised at all if he could post a 14% walk rate at the major league level.

[dougdirt]

Billy Hamilton isn't going to walk 14% of the time in the Majors.

Since 2000, there have been 518 players with at least 1500 PA's. 23 of them have walked in 14% of their plate appearances. All of them except for Daric Barton have a .170 IsoP or higher.

Barton has not hit for much power in the Majors, but he has a large advantage in power over Hamilton. Barton hit 59 home runs in the minor leagues in 2700 PA's. Billy Hamilton has 1600 PA's in the minors and he has 7, and 4 of those are inside the park jobs.

Pitchers are not going to be afraid at all to throw Hamilton strikes. He strikes out at a really high rate for someone with no power. They know that they can get him out.

[757690]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I guess with Andrus there are a few things at play. First, he played a full season in the Majors at 20. You would expect a teenager to generally gain a tad bit of plate discipline moving forward. Doesn't always happen, but you do expect it in most cases. In the minors from age 16-19 he walked 8.4% of the time. In the Majors he isn't really walking much more than that (9.1% over the last three years).

At a young age he showed a solid ability to draw a walk. Under 10% though to me is just taking advantage of pitchers who can't always throw strikes. Right now though, Hamilton is walking as much as Joey Votto. That isn't going to happen. If Hamilton walks as often as Andrus, I don't think it would surprise anyone. 9% seems reasonable. 14%, that doesn't.

Thanks. If he does regress to a 9% BB rate, what effect would that have on his production? Can he be as productive as Andrus in the majors?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by 757690

Thanks. If he does regress to a 9% BB rate, what effect would that have on his production? Can he be as productive as Andrus in the majors?

Tough to say. It really would depend on where his BABIP and K rate fell on the spectrum. If his K rate stays at 18% and his BABIP is at .300, then no, he won't be as productive as Andrus. If his K rate drops to 15% and his BABIP is .300, then his OBP would probably hover between .320 and .330. If his K rate stays at 18% and his BABIP is say .330, he is probably right around a .340 OBP. If his K rate drops to 15% and his BABIP is say .330, his OBP is right around the .350 mark.

Lots of factors going on there that still need to be determined.

[757690]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Tough to say. It really would depend on where his BABIP and K rate fell on the spectrum. If his K rate stays at 18% and his BABIP is at .300, then no, he won't be as productive as Andrus. If his K rate drops to 15% and his BABIP is .300, then his OBP would probably hover between .320 and .330. If his K rate stays at 18% and his BABIP is say .330, he is probably right around a .340 OBP. If his K rate drops to 15% and his BABIP is say .330, his OBP is right around the .350 mark.

Lots of factors going on there that still need to be determined.

Thanks again, good stuff, and sorry for asking you to do math, lol.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Billy Hamilton isn't going to walk 14% of the time in the Majors.

Since 2000, there have been 518 players with at least 1500 PA's. 23 of them have walked in 14% of their plate appearances. All of them except for Daric Barton have a .170 IsoP or higher.

Barton has not hit for much power in the Majors, but he has a large advantage in power over Hamilton. Barton hit 59 home runs in the minor leagues in 2700 PA's. Billy Hamilton has 1600 PA's in the minors and he has 7, and 4 of those are inside the park jobs.

Pitchers are not going to be afraid at all to throw Hamilton strikes. He strikes out at a really high rate for someone with no power. They know that they can get him out.

Though I don't see him having a 14% walk rate (as I said yesterday, I would expect around 10%), just because others haven't done it recently in the majors doesn't mean he can't or won't do it. In fact, what you're describing isn't unprecedented if you go back a little longer than 10 years.

If you use a sample going back to 1990, you find that there is a lot more evidence of guys with lower ISOs having at least a walk rate of 14%. Since 1990, the following guys come up:

Rickey Henderson (17.7%, .141)
Randy Milligan (17.2%, .151)
Lance Blankenship (16.7%, .077)
Warren Newson, (16.4%, .151)
Tony Phillips (16.0%, .136)
Dave Magadan (14.9%, .089)
Jeremy Giambi (14.7%, .167)
John Cangelosi (14.2%, .062)
Lenny Dykstra (14.2%, .136)
John Kruk (14.1%, .149)

Now, expanding the criteria a bit to 1980, and 13%, we find...

Randy Milligan (17.2%, .159)
Rickey Henderson (16.7%, .142)
Warren Newson (16.4%, .151)
Joe Morgan (16.4%, .140)
Lance Blankenship (15.5%, .077)
Mark Bailey (14.7%, .117)
Jeremy Giambi (14.7%, .167)
John Cangelosi (14.7%, .069)
Ron Roenicke (14.7%, .100)
Tony Phillips (14.5%, .123)
Dave Magadan (14.5%, .089)
Toby Harrah (14.3%, .124)
Daric Barton (14.2%, .122)
Mike Hargrove (14.1%, .079)
Darrell Porter (14.1%, .160)
John Kruk (14.1%, .145)
Lee Mazzilli (14.0%, .122)
Dwayne Murphy (14.0%, .160)
--
Mark Bellhorn (13.9%, .164)
John Wockenfuss (13.8%, .158)
Jerry Hairston (13.6%, .155)
Kosuke Fukudome (13.6%, .136)
Ken Singleton (13.5%, .145)
Dave Hansen (13.5%, .109)
Willie Randolph (13.4%, .082)
Rich Becker (13.3%, .116)
Bobby Grich (13.3%, .169)
Frank Menechino (13.2%, .143)
Dan Driessen (13.2%, .146)
Butch Wynegar (13.2%, .092)
Sixto Lezcano (13.2%, .162)
Mike Jorgensen (13.2%, .104)
Wade Boggs (13.1%, .115)
Randy Ready (13.1%, .127)
Ryan Langerhans (13.0%, .146)
Greg Gross (13.0%, .052)
Quilvio Veras (13.0%, .092)

As you can hopefully see, it's been done and it's been done by some guys with some very, very low ISOs (Lance Blankenship is the best example). It's really not as unprecedented as you make it sound. I think what you have is a bit of a selection bias in that during the PED era, there were not as many guys in the majors that didn't hit for power, but now that baseball is reverting back to an emphasis on speed defense before homers were dime-a-dozen, you're going to see guys like this list pop back up a bit more. It wasn't that you couldn't have a high walk rate with a low ISO, it's that during the PED-era, few teams carried guys that didn't have much power. Now that power has dwindled in a heightened era of testing, you're going to see more guys with low ISOs in the majors, and you'll still see guys with high walk rates like in the 80s and 90s.

[camisadelgolf]

Lead-off hitters in the NL don't need much power at all to be good. All they need is good defense and the ability to get on base. When they do those two things, they're excellent.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Though I don't see him having a 14% walk rate (as I said yesterday, I would expect around 10%), just because others haven't done it recently in the majors doesn't mean he can't or won't do it. In fact, what you're describing isn't unprecedented if you go back a little longer than 10 years.

If you use a sample going back to 1990, you find that there is a lot more evidence of guys with lower ISOs having at least a walk rate of 14%. Since 1990, the following guys come up:

Rickey Henderson (17.7%, .141)
Randy Milligan (17.2%, .151)
Lance Blankenship (16.7%, .077)
Warren Newson, (16.4%, .151)
Tony Phillips (16.0%, .136)
Dave Magadan (14.9%, .089)
Jeremy Giambi (14.7%, .167)
John Cangelosi (14.2%, .062)
Lenny Dykstra (14.2%, .136)
John Kruk (14.1%, .149)

Now, expanding the criteria a bit to 1980, and 13%, we find...

Randy Milligan (17.2%, .159)
Rickey Henderson (16.7%, .142)
Warren Newson (16.4%, .151)
Joe Morgan (16.4%, .140)
Lance Blankenship (15.5%, .077)
Mark Bailey (14.7%, .117)
Jeremy Giambi (14.7%, .167)
John Cangelosi (14.7%, .069)
Ron Roenicke (14.7%, .100)
Tony Phillips (14.5%, .123)
Dave Magadan (14.5%, .089)
Toby Harrah (14.3%, .124)
Daric Barton (14.2%, .122)
Mike Hargrove (14.1%, .079)
Darrell Porter (14.1%, .160)
John Kruk (14.1%, .145)
Lee Mazzilli (14.0%, .122)
Dwayne Murphy (14.0%, .160)
--
Mark Bellhorn (13.9%, .164)
John Wockenfuss (13.8%, .158)
Jerry Hairston (13.6%, .155)
Kosuke Fukudome (13.6%, .136)
Ken Singleton (13.5%, .145)
Dave Hansen (13.5%, .109)
Willie Randolph (13.4%, .082)
Rich Becker (13.3%, .116)
Bobby Grich (13.3%, .169)
Frank Menechino (13.2%, .143)
Dan Driessen (13.2%, .146)
Butch Wynegar (13.2%, .092)
Sixto Lezcano (13.2%, .162)
Mike Jorgensen (13.2%, .104)
Wade Boggs (13.1%, .115)
Randy Ready (13.1%, .127)
Ryan Langerhans (13.0%, .146)
Greg Gross (13.0%, .052)
Quilvio Veras (13.0%, .092)

As you can hopefully see, it's been done and it's been done by some guys with some very, very low ISOs (Lance Blankenship is the best example). It's really not as unprecedented as you make it sound. I think what you have is a bit of a selection bias in that during the PED era, there were not as many guys in the majors that didn't hit for power, but now that baseball is reverting back to an emphasis on speed defense before homers were dime-a-dozen, you're going to see guys like this list pop back up a bit more. It wasn't that you couldn't have a high walk rate with a low ISO, it's that during the PED-era, few teams carried guys that didn't have much power. Now that power has dwindled in a heightened era of testing, you're going to see more guys with low ISOs in the majors, and you'll still see guys with high walk rates like in the 80s and 90s.

Good post.

Strikeouts aren't always about how good the pitcher is. Sometimes it's a willingness to work the count, have a good eye, and then a willingness to take a walk.

I've seen too many overly aggressive hitters get themselves out time after time. And I've seen too many pitchers that nibble and throw "near strikes" that get by on overly aggressive hitters.

The current Reds are a good example of that.

[dougdirt]

Brutus, Rickey Henderson hit more home runs in a season (8) than Hamilton has in his career (7) 16 times. Randy Milligan hit 20 home runs in 1990. Warren Newson never topped 300 PA's in a single season yet still had multiple double digit home run seasons. Tony Phillips had 7 double digit home run seasons in his career and hit 27 at one point. Jeremy Giambi played 6 season and hit double digit home runs in half of them, including a 20 home run campaign. John Kruk hit 20 home runs in his second season in the Majors.

Lance Blankenship works, kind of. Of course he never played a full season in his life either. Dave Magadan works. Little home run power, lots of walks. Struck out significantly less than Hamilton does though. Still time for Hamilton to fix that some. John Canglosi is much like Blankenship, never really played a full season except for one year. Lenny Dykstra kind of works too, but he struck out at half the rate of what Hamilton is currently striking out at.

I didn't expand beyond the initial list, but the point is that Hamilton has such a unique skillset when it comes to Major Leaguers (every day players who probably aren't going to hit you 5 home runs in a season) that it is tough to find actual comparisons.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Brutus, Rickey Henderson hit more home runs in a season (8) than Hamilton has in his career (7) 16 times. Randy Milligan hit 20 home runs in 1990. Warren Newson never topped 300 PA's in a single season yet still had multiple double digit home run seasons. Tony Phillips had 7 double digit home run seasons in his career and hit 27 at one point. Jeremy Giambi played 6 season and hit double digit home runs in half of them, including a 20 home run campaign. John Kruk hit 20 home runs in his second season in the Majors.

Lance Blankenship works, kind of. Of course he never played a full season in his life either. Dave Magadan works. Little home run power, lots of walks. Struck out significantly less than Hamilton does though. Still time for Hamilton to fix that some. John Canglosi is much like Blankenship, never really played a full season except for one year. Lenny Dykstra kind of works too, but he struck out at half the rate of what Hamilton is currently striking out at.

I didn't expand beyond the initial list, but the point is that Hamilton has such a unique skillset when it comes to Major Leaguers (every day players who probably aren't going to hit you 5 home runs in a season) that it is tough to find actual comparisons.

It sounds like we were using ISO as a reference and now that it's been used in context to show what we were discussing isn't all that unprecedented, now you're changing the terms and expectations a bit.

I showed a case using ISO, but now you're focusing on homers and strikeouts.

All this is kind of silly because comparing someone's minor league numbers to a subset of players in the majors is terribly shortsighted. Those players in the majors often had wildly different numbers in the minors, so doing a cross-level comparison without taking into account equivalencies is worthless, to be honest.

We know, and all agree, that walk rates carry over pretty well. Hamilton by all accounts has tremendous plate discipline and a good eye. I don't see why someone can't accept the possibility that he *might* carry a great walk rate at the next level. It's really not that big of a leap. It might dip a little, and almost certainly will from the current 17%, but guys with good pitch recognition and discipline don't lose that at the next level. They'll still be able to work counts and lay off bad pitches. That's a skill that will carry over and will lead him to a higher walk rate than most.