If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

[CySeymour]

I'd say Homer, but wouldn't be upset if it were Leake who got kept. There just seems to be that one thing off from Homer, that one thing that keeps it from clicking in. Sometimes with pitchers, it takes a bit longer for them to figure it out then hitters. I'd like to maybe get him a couple of starts with Hannigan catching, just for kicks and grins.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by 757690

The issue with with Bailey has always been his inconsistency. He has better stuff, but can't put it together for an extended period of time.

I think it's funny that people a month ago were touting how consistant Bailey had been, since the season was only halfway over.

For me, it's Leake, but only because of the reasons RMR gave. If they had the same controllable years, it's a toss up, imo, both are solid #4-5 starters.

My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.

[Caveman Techie]

I would keep Leake, for many of the reasons stated already. Homer has a higher ceiling, but I think Leake is more likely to reach his ceiling.

Now with that said, I don't dump on Homer yet either. He is still a very young pitcher and is just now coming in to his prime where I would expect him to take that next step forward, if he ever will. Once Arroyo is out of the rotation and Chapman is in it, I would be more than happy to give Homer more time to take that next step.

[MWM]

Leake in a no-brainer for me, and I would have said the same at any point in the season. I think Leake is a better pitcher and will be a better pitcher. Even when Homer was in his really good stretch this year, I knew a big drop off was coming. I don't think Homer is a great competitor and Leake is. I think Leake is going to continue to get better while we've seen what Homer is. If I had to win one game right now, I know I'd much rather have Leake on the mound than Homer.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

My point was that if this thread was started in late July, not nearly as many people would have said they'd rather hold on to Leake. Coming off several bad starts in a row can cause people to be quite reactionary, IMO.

Over the past three years, they've basically been the same pitcher. Two very different styles obviously, but hovering around low 4's and high 3's in terms of FIP and xFIP, and a difference of 0.3 WAR between the two. Who projects out better? I think the ceiling on Leake is pretty low. He probably is what he is.

Homer may very well be who he is, but however remote the chance is for him to take the next step, I think he has a much better chance than Leake does.

I think Homer has done some good things this year and look forward to another hot streak from him. This has been Homer's best year IMO and overall I think he has contributed a bit more than Leake. I wouldn't mind if the Reds keep Bailey next year.

But if forced to take one of them for the future, I'd take Leake. I think Homer's high ceiling is questionable at this point.

Homer as a power pitcher and bat misser isn't working out. His K rate is 6.80 per nine innings and has gotten lower over the last three years. Fangraphs rates his fastball below average. I don't see the big upside at this point.

Leake never was held out as a power pitcher, is a bit younger and less experienced, but is very competitive and shows a feel for pitching. Good ground ball rate of 47.7%. Many of his numbers are similar to or slightly better than Homer's this year (FIP, xFIP, WAR for example).

Given his modest K rate and fastball rating, I don't see Bailey's path to sustaining excellence. I can see Leake's as a ground ball guy, although it's certainly not a lock.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Bailey and I wouldn't have to think about it. His stuff is just much better. When he is on his game, he can dominate the other team. When Mike Leake is on his game, he can get a bunch of groundouts.

Doug, I've made the same argument at times. However, that simply hasn't translated. He's got a career 6.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. The walks are down this year, but the K's are right in line with that. By contrast, Leake is at 6.1 and 2.4 respective.

0.8 strikeouts per nine is nothing to scoff at, but neither is 0.9 walks. At what point does Homer need to translate that stuff in to being more than a back of the rotation guy?

Or is your point simply that Homer still has untapped upside whereas Leake is basically who he is.

[Vottomatic]

Tallying comments, it's the better stuff/high ceiling argument vs. the results argument.

I'm a results guy. I also consider injury history.

Nor do I think missing bats is the end all. I've seen too many guys with good offspeed stuff and breaking balls put many power pitchers to shame.

I also knew the timing of this question would come into question after Bailey's bad outing.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

I wonder what the responses would be if this question was asked on on 7/30.

Leake, and for the record, I would have answered the same a few weeks ago.

Bailey has just not won me over. Even when he was pitching well, I felt it was somewhat smoke & mirrors. He too often gets the ball up in the zone for my liking. His stuff is a little better than Leake's when it's on, but I like Leake because of the age, the contract, the control and being able to induce more grounders.

I don't dislike Bailey, but I'd rather have Leake going forward.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Bailey and I wouldn't have to think about it. His stuff is just much better. When he is on his game, he can dominate the other team. When Mike Leake is on his game, he can get a bunch of groundouts.

While I don't disagree Homer has better stuff, it's worth noting that Bailey only has a minimally better K-rate and the past two years combined, Leake's FIP is actually better than Homer's.

For a guy you "wouldn't have to think about it," that's a compelling case to the contrary.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Or is your point simply that Homer still has untapped upside whereas Leake is basically who he is.

This. I don't see Mike Leake being able to do much beyond what he is right now. Homer Bailey, when he is on at least, has an above average fastball, split finger, curve and slider. With control. Mike Leake when he is on top of his game simply can't match that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

While I don't disagree Homer has better stuff, it's worth noting that Bailey only has a minimally better K-rate and the past two years combined, Leake's FIP is actually better than Homer's.

For a guy you "wouldn't have to think about it," that's a compelling case to the contrary.

Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

I don't see how anyone knows what either guys ceiling is.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. Homer Bailey could be a whole lot more than he currently is. Mike Leake can't be. Since they are roughly the same guy right now in terms of results, it is incredibly easy to take the guy with a whole lot more upside and very little downside compared to the other guy.

Bailey has been around for eight professional seasons and pitched over 1,000 innings. Isn't it time to accept that he probably isn't going to be "a whole lot more than he currently is?"

For goodness sake, Doug, he's 26 years old and has 1,000 innings under his belt. I think it's time to accept this is probably what he is. I'm really not sure there's much more upside left for Homer. He is who he is. Good pitcher, but I think it's time to eliminate the word "potential" from the vocabulary in Homer discussions.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Bailey has been around for eight professional seasons and pitched over 1,000 innings. Isn't it time to accept that he probably isn't going to be "a whole lot more than he currently is?"

For goodness sake, Doug, he's 26 years old and has 1,000 innings under his belt. I think it's time to accept this is probably what he is. I'm really not sure there's much more upside left for Homer. He is who he is. Good pitcher, but I think it's time to eliminate the word "potential" from the vocabulary in Homer discussions.

I strongly disagree with you here. I really don't feel like arguing about it anymore. I addressed how and why I feel about it in this thread already. You disagree with me. That is fine, we disagree.

[REDREAD]

I actually think both Homer and Leake could improve somewhat.

Really, all either of them has to do is gain some consistency and reduce the number of horrible starts and they are a solid #3. Hard to say which was is going to actually do that (maybe neither will). Both have their share of "off nights", which really keeps them in the BOR catagory.

I'm guessing most of us wouldn't mind either Leake or Homer starting a playoff game if we knew in advance that they would have a good night.. both are capable, just need to reduce the number of stinkers.