If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

The key on that last part is "this year."

As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.

8.3
7.2
6.8

It keeps going south.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Then you may want to go find another team to cheer for or resign yourself to the fact that you will never be happy with a rotation the Reds put forward.

Where did I say I wasn't happy with the Reds rotation? I don't think either of them will be anything more than a "guy" moving forward.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

The key on that last part is "this year."

As far as Homer's career K rate goes, I really don't care about anything but his past 3 years, and in that time it's been 7.4. Almost a K and half better than Leake.

If we're talking about his ceiling, I don't necessarily consider game scores and all that to factor too heavily in that equation. It's not about what he's done, but what can he do in the future. And from a scouting perspective, I have to give the edge to Bailey. He just has better pitches than Leake. Mike is going to be the Bronson Arroyo type, surviving on guts and guile, and with those guys there are going to be times when that just isn't enough.

As reds44 already beat me to the punch in saying, Bailey's k-rate has gone down about 1.5 in the past two years. It's going the wrong direction to support the argument that he's more trustworthy striking guys out.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

As reds44 already beat me to the punch in saying, Bailey's k-rate has gone down about 1.5 in the past two years. It's going the wrong direction to support the argument that he's more trustworthy striking guys out.

Thing is, Homer still has done it before, and recently. He hasn't appeared to lose any velocity, so I think if I had to speculate, it's because Homer still had times where he doesn't know what to do or how to pitch. You can teach a thrower how to pitch. You can't teach a guy who's a soft tosser how to throw harder.

Homer has displayed the ability to strike people out in the reasonably recent past and hasnt displayed any physical reason why he should not be able to anymore, so I don't think it's all that far fetched to suggest he can still do it.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

Thing is, Homer still has done it before, and recently. He hasn't appeared to lose any velocity, so I think if I had to speculate, it's because Homer still had times where he doesn't know what to do or how to pitch. You can teach a thrower how to pitch. You can't teach a guy who's a soft tosser how to throw harder.

Homer has displayed the ability to strike people out in the reasonably recent past and hasnt displayed any physical reason why he should not be able to anymore, so I don't think it's all that far fetched to suggest he can still do it.

His K/9 by year:

5.6 (less than 50 innings)
4.5 (less than 40 innings)
6.8
8.3
7.2
6.8

His 6.8 this year is pretty much right at his career average (6.9).

Leake's is 6.1.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by reds44

Where did I say I wasn't happy with the Reds rotation? I don't think either of them will be anything more than a "guy" moving forward.

Ok I can get that. I took the quote that you didn't like 40% of the starting rotation at face value, nothing more.

[Vottomatic]

But Leake has 2 HR's.

[Kc61]

As many are aware, Fangraphs has "pitch value" stats. Homer's fastball is not very effective this season by this measure.

wFB uses linear weights to determine how many runs are saved by the use of the pitcher's fastball. Chapman, for example has saved 17.8 runs, Cueto 17.6 using the fastball.

Bailey's fastball, by this measure, has saved -14.1 runs.

Now, that stat may not be entirely fair because Homer has probably thrown many fastballs this year and it is a counting stat. So there's also a wFB/C stat which standardizes the results per 100 pitches. Chapman is +2.02 by that measure and Cueto is +1.20, again focused on the fastball.

Bailey's fastball, by this standardized measure, has saved -.95 runs.

Others may understand these stats better, but it seems to me that a power pitcher needs a more effective fastball and this could correlate to the relatively low K rate so far for Homer. I was surprised Homer's fastball did not grade out higher.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by KittyDuran

Just caught the last part of the post game show w/Marty and Jeff. In effect they believe Leake is the odd man out especially in the post season. You know what you're going to get with Cueto, Latos and even Arroyo. Tomorrow's start will be huge for Homer.

Yea, I caught part of them talking about it during the game.
Of course, I don't put a lot of stock into Marty's thoughts.. Marty was annoyed Leake could not hold the lead.. I'm sure Marty will say Homer will be left off the roster after his next rough start. Marty doesn't think much of either guy.

But it raises an interesting question.. The broadcasters claimed Leake couldn't pitch out of the pen.. I'm not sure that's accurate, but let's assume it is.. They say Homer can't pitch out of the pen either. Would it make sense to drop one of Leake/Homer off the playoff roster? I'm not sure it does.. I think they'd have to replace them with a pitcher that is on the DL on Aug 31. (I'm assuming neither Homer or Leake will be injured before then).. So that just means replacing them with Bray or Masset.. Not really sure that's an upgrade. Bray has been ineffective all year, and I think Masset is a lost cause for this year..

If they could replace one of Homer/Leake with a position player, maybe that makes sense.. who would you guys pick? Cairo, Billy Hamilton? Not really sure there's anyone in the organization worth considering (I'm assuming Cairo is the odd man out when Votto is healthy). I'm guessing if the Reds really wanted to, they could DL LeCure at the end of August and bring up a position player to replace him and then have the flexibility to replace Homer/Leake with a position player through roster juggling, but I'm not 100% sure..

[PickOff]

Leake. I'm already on record advocating a trade of Bailey in the offseason. His splits suggest he would be worth more to teams that don't play half their games in GAPB.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by reds44

8.3
7.2
6.8

It keeps going south.

That's because he's learning from Cueto's example. He's not trying to punch everyone out. He's learning to trust that defense behind him and just pound the zone. Check out his BB rates.

5.6
4.2
4.1
3.3
2.3
2.6

I can live with a lower K rate as long as the BB's go down with them. What's hurt Homer this year (and last) are his HR's allowed. He seems to be going to his breaking balls quite a bit more of late, mixing things up like that should correct that HR rate some I'd think. I'm not worried about Homer in the least.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

That's because he's learning from Cueto's example. He's not trying to punch everyone out. He's learning to trust that defense behind him and just pound the zone. Check out his BB rates.

5.6
4.2
4.1
3.3
2.3
2.6

I can live with a lower K rate as long as the BB's go down with them. What's hurt Homer this year (and last) are his HR's allowed. He seems to be going to his breaking balls quite a bit more of late, mixing things up like that should correct that HR rate some I'd think. I'm not worried about Homer in the least.

Homer's strikeout rate is nothing special. His walk rate per nine innings of 2.63 is good, but far from the leaders. (Cueto's is 1.96 and he's 12th in the NL among pitchers with 100 innings.)

Unlike Cueto, Homer doesn't throw ground balls at a high rate. Cueto is 18th in ground ball percentage among NL pitchers with 100 innings, Homer is 47th.

So the question is this - what is Homer's path to success? Not strikeouts apparently. Not ground balls apparently.

Low walk rate? A 2.63/9 walk rate is good, but it's not special, it's not enough to make you a winner absent some other superior ability.

Homer has pitched some great games this year, but based on current numbers I'm struggling to see how it all turns out for the better. I always thought he would be a power pitcher, but if not he needs to find some other path to success, which I don't yet see in his numbers.

He's still young and has a great arm, maybe something will click in the near future.

[Tadasimha]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I actually think both Homer and Leake could improve somewhat.

Really, all either of them has to do is gain some consistency and reduce the number of horrible starts and they are a solid #3. Hard to say which was is going to actually do that (maybe neither will). Both have their share of "off nights", which really keeps them in the BOR catagory.

I'm guessing most of us wouldn't mind either Leake or Homer starting a playoff game if we knew in advance that they would have a good night.. both are capable, just need to reduce the number of stinkers.

This. Consistency has been the bane of both guys. When they're on, they both have the ability to control a game and dominate another team (in different ways). Both guys have the ability to be 15 game winners in the next couple of seasons.

I'd keep both of them, personally. I'd also keep Chapman as the closer and plan to move either Corinco or Cingrani (which ever develops faster) into the starting rotation in 2014 once Arroyo's contract is done.

[Tom Servo]

So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right?

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

So if I'm following this thread correctly we're all going to say Homer now, right?

I get the impression most people already have their own preference, it's just a matter of how vocal they are depending on the latest start(s).