Vote Billy !!!

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by MikeS21

I haven't seen Hamilton play a lot, but the few times I have seen him, I am left thinking, "He's not going to get away with that at higher levels."

Hamilton's struggle will always be getting on base. I see his OBP now, and while it is impressive, I have my doubts about his ability to get on base at the major league level. I certainly think talk of promotion to themajor leagues is premature until he has a full season of AA and a full season of AAA under his belt.

Right now I see Hamilton as another novelty carnival act - like Chapman and his 100+ mph fastball. What does he offer when he is no longer able to run?

I am not opposed to calling Hamilton up this September, to use solely as a pinch runner or a spot start once a week. But he should head back to the minors to start next season.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Brutus

As if Doug saying so is going to keep people from being disappointed. People are going to have their own expectations. No amount of Doug trying to feel it's his job as Redszone enthusiasm manager is going to change that.

Yeah, but it's a constant back-and-forth. Everyone involved is guilty, and it's annoying. It's just noise. I think I got too far off topic, so if I think of anything else to say about it, it'll be in a PM.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hamilton comes up with the bases empty one time a game for sure. Most leadoff guys come up with runners on base about half of the time they step to the plate.

I would just like to point out this is untrue. Perhaps it's close to 1/2 after the first at bat, but overall leadoff guys are going to see men on base closer to 33% of the time. Let's take a guy who has a ton lead off at bats, Rickey Henderson. He batted with men on base 34.6% of the time (I chose him since his sample size would be huge and varied among different teams, plus he batted leadoff for all but 15 games in his career). Mind you he also played almost all of his career in the AL, so no pitcher hitting before him. The two Reds who bat leadoff or number 2 most of the time are Stubbs and Cozart. Stubbs - 34.5%, Cozart - 32.1%. I am sure I could go on and on, yet I in no way wanted to let something that is far from true simply slip by unnoticed.

To further the Rickey Henderson comparison, he had a .267/.398/.382 slash line in 1982 with 130 stolen bases and 42 caught stealing. That is about as close I can get to Hamilton's numbers. His oWAR (BR formula) was 5.5 that year (I use oWAR to eliminate defense for now). Tavares's numbers are in the ballpark of Votto last year, who had a 5.7 oWAR. Now, there are ballpark/position factors in there and it's a cumulative stat, so it's not the best comparison. Taking in those into account it looks better for Taveras, but I would say Votto's numbers>Tavares and Hamiltons>Henderson so it's a wash.

Anyway, talking all that into account, Hamilton's offensive numbers are similar in value to Taveras (I would need more detailed numbers not available from minor league stats to do a more exact comparison). In other words, Hamilton has a very strong case based on minor league batting numbers. This is in no way a clear cut case like you are trying to make it out to be.

edit: oh, and if you believe in wOBA, the two players are almost identical and that doesn't take into account steals. If you believe in Sabermetrics, getting on base is more important than slugging (which wOBA tries to take into account and is pretty much OPS with slugging reduced in value). That makes Hamilton's case a lot better.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not opposed to calling Hamilton up this September, to use solely as a pinch runner or a spot start once a week. But he should head back to the minors to start next season.

I would say that is completely up to the Reds. I am on the fence about a September call up (I stated my reasons in another thread). Yet I would be dead set against any starts unless the Reds have the division won and home field locked in. He is a defensive liability right now, and could be an offensive one too at the MLB level. I think Hamilton still needs at the very least 1 more full year in the minors, and maybe 2 before he can even be considered for any sort of starting at the MLB level in games that matter.

[dougdirt]

Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

I know what you're trying to say, but I don't think it's "crazy". They have a lot in common.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I know what you're trying to say, but I don't think it's "crazy". They have a lot in common.

Except for that part where no one projects Hamilton to hit for any home run power at all and Henderson hit 297 career home runs, topping 15 home runs 8 different times. And Henderson struck out at a significantly lower rate in the Majors than Hamilton has in the minors.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Except for that part where no one projects Hamilton to hit for any home run power at all and Henderson hit 297 career home runs, topping 15 home runs 8 different times. And Henderson struck out at a significantly lower rate in the Majors than Hamilton has in the minors.

I know.

[Jamz]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

Taveras isn't Joey Votto, either. He was using comparables in the MLB to show the value that each player is contributing right now. Not what they are going to become in the future.

At least that's what I took from it.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

And Taveras isn't Votto either.. I think he was just saying "what if their AA numbers held up in the majors".

Billy will never have the power that Rickey had.. I agree with that.
He might come close in OBP and steals though.. Would I bet my house on it? Nope, but that's the upside.

[dougdirt]

I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

[Brutus]

Henderson didn't really exhibit any more power than Hamilton in the minors, although I wonder if the power exhibited in the majors was natural given the team he broke in with (*cough cough* McGwire, Canseco, etc.)

That said, while I don't share Doug's views on Hamilton's being unable to sustain a Henderson-like OBP at some point, it's worth noting that Henderson's strikeout rate in the minors was definitely impressive. He struck out just 12.4% of his plate appearances (16.4% walk rate). Hamilton currently sits at a 10.4% walk rate and 20% strikeout rate, although this year has been much, much better (14.5% and 18.3%, respectively).

I don't see Hamilton ever having Rickey's power, though I still think he can maintain a 12-13% walk rate in the majors. I view Hamilton as being more in the mold of Tim Raines as upside, with a basement career similar to Otis Nixon. Raines finished his career with a 12.9% walk rate despite an ISO of .131. Like Hamilton, he was only about 160 pounds soaking wet.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Billy Hamilton is not Rickey Henderson. Sorry, but that comparison is just crazy.

The stats are similar. I used the comparison to put Hamilton's stats into a cumulative stats like oWAR (which I could not do with just Hamilton's stats since I don't have what I need). I in no way said Hamilton is Henderson. Yet find me another big leaguer with stats in the bigs similar to Hamilton's in the minors.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

Early in Rickey's career he did not have much power, and guess what, that is one of the years I used. In fact, Hamilton has a higher slugging percentage in the minors than Rickey had the year I used.

The only career stat I used for Rickey was for men on base. That has nothing to do with Hamilton and was used to show you lead off men do not hit 50% of the time with men on base. It's not even close.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by scott91575

The stats are similar. I used the comparison to put Hamilton's stats into a cumulative stats like oWAR (which I could not do with just Hamilton's stats since I don't have what I need). I in no way said Hamilton is Henderson. Yet find me another big leaguer with stats in the bigs similar to Hamilton's in the minors.

Henderson's stats aren't really like Hamilton's in the minors either. So I would have to find you one, not another one.

I don't really care to do it though. Hamilton is a unique player with a unique skillset. I don't believe that his minor league numbers are going to translate 1 to 1, particularly in the walk area. So even if I did find someone with stats that are similar, it wouldn't particularly do much good for a comparison for me.