Vote Billy !!!

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

And Taveras isn't Votto either.. I think he was just saying "what if their AA numbers held up in the majors".

Billy will never have the power that Rickey had.. I agree with that.
He might come close in OBP and steals though.. Would I bet my house on it? Nope, but that's the upside.

Exactly. I needed 2 players in the majors that had similar stats that those two have in the minors this year. That way I could look at some cumulative stats in order to compare two very different styles of ballplayers. I needed something that was a somewhat accepted metric that could turn steals into a quantifiable metric in order to compare that to Taveras style stats. That is all I was doing.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Henderson's stats aren't really like Hamilton's in the minors either. So I would have to find you one, not another one.

I don't really care to do it though. Hamilton is a unique player with a unique skillset. I don't believe that his minor league numbers are going to translate 1 to 1, particularly in the walk area. So even if I did find someone with stats that are similar, it wouldn't particularly do much good for a comparison for me.

I need to remind you this thread is about voting for minor league player of the year. Your belief in Hamilton's numbers translating to the majors don't matter (of course you assume Taveras's numbers will, but let's just ignore that).

I have been trying to show over and over again why Hamilton's numbers are either similar or in fact superior to Taveras's numbers in the minors. That is all. You started by stating how incredible the other guy's seasons are, and I have shown through countless number of stats how incredible Hamilton's season is in comparison. He is not just a bunch of steals like you wanted to think.

[dougdirt]

I have never said he is just a bunch of steals. I said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I have never said he is just a bunch of steals. I said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

I am laughing at this point. OK, you said he is having a good season with a bunch of steals.

The facts are, you belittled Hamilton's stats in comparison to others on the list and I have used accepted cumulative offensive stats to show he does in fact stand up to them and actually above them.

This is more for the people that actually accepted your stance but stated "we are Reds fans let's vote for the Reds." That is not even needed. Hamilton's stats stand up to the others and actually exceed them, plain and simple. His stats should in no way be considered "a good season with a bunch of steals." From a cumulative offensive value perspective, his stats are some of if not the best in the minor leagues this year.

[dougdirt]

I will take what Oscar Taveras is doing over what Hamilton is doing. Give me power over speed any day of the week. Unfortunately he is a Cardinal and he looks like he is going to be a very, very good one at that.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't really know that his upside is Rickey type OBP at all. If he doesn't have the power then he is going to have to walk as much or more while also striking out less often, which he isn't close to being able to do right now.

Henderson had a batting stance where he really scrunched down. The umps at time gave pitchers pitching to him a very small strike zone.
IMO, that had a bigger impact on Rickey's OBP then his power.
Rickey had nice power (297 HR in 25 seasons), but pitchers did everything they could to keep him off base. They weren't walking Henderson because they were scared of his HR power. Henderson played on several really good teams where he had guys with better power hitting behind him.. In other words, no one would give Stubbs a walk because they fear his power, with Votto hitting behind him.

If Billy becomes a 100 SB threat, teams are not going to want him on base period. The question is whether Billy will hit major league pitching well enough that he's pitched carefully. As I said, many minor league players have nice walk rates on the farm. Then they come to the big leagues, can't hit big league pitching, and the walks evaporate.

If Billy can hit .300 in the majors as his hitting coach suggests, he'll get plenty of walks to go along with it. Billy seems to have good pitch recognition in the minors. That will transfer to the bigs. Now, whether Billy can actually hit .300 remains to be seen..

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Billy seems to have good pitch recognition in the minors. That will transfer to the bigs. Now, whether Billy can actually hit .300 remains to be seen..

To me, Billy seems to have a good understanding of the zone, but not really good pitch recognition.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

To me, Billy seems to have a good understanding of the zone, but not really good pitch recognition.

Not disagreeing.. can you elaborate on what you are saying though? thanks.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Not disagreeing.. can you elaborate on what you are saying though? thanks.

Hamilton doesn't swing at too many non strikes from what I have seen. But he often is very off balance in his swing as he starts too early and just uses a flailing arm swing to try and do something with an offspeed pitch. That suggests to me that while he can determine the strikezone pretty good, he doesn't differentiate well between pitches.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hamilton doesn't swing at too many non strikes from what I have seen. But he often is very off balance in his swing as he starts too early and just uses a flailing arm swing to try and do something with an offspeed pitch. That suggests to me that while he can determine the strikezone pretty good, he doesn't differentiate well between pitches.

ok, thanks.. what you say makes sense.

[Jamz]

With that said since moving up he's cut down his strikeout rate and his walk rate has gone up again.

In 82 games at single A he had 70 strikeouts and 50 walks. His current pace at AA has him going for 64 walks and 64 strikeouts in 82 games. Doesn't seem that significant but it is.

[dougdirt]

His strikeout rate has actually gone up. In Bakersfield he had a 17.8% K rate. In Pensacola it is 18.4%. In the grand scheme of things, that really isn't a difference. But yeah, it hasn't actually gone down.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

His strikeout rate has actually gone up. In Bakersfield he had a 17.8% K rate. In Pensacola it is 18.4%. In the grand scheme of things, that really isn't a difference. But yeah, it hasn't actually gone down.

Too small of a comparison sample size to consider 0.6% an actual increase mid season. I am sure you could pick out the same amount of at bats in A+ where he has 18.4% K rate or above. That is what statisticians would call normal variance/within normal distribution. Plus, it's 0.6% at a higher level.

Yet his K rate was much higher in A and rookie ball. That is not normal variance. That is actual improvement.

If you actually want to point to something statistically relevant that is a difference it's his caught stealing rate.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by scott91575

Too small of a comparison sample size to consider 0.6% an actual increase mid season. I am sure you could pick out the same amount of at bats in A+ where he has 18.4% K rate or above. That is what statisticians would call normal variance/within normal distribution. Plus, it's 0.6% at a higher level.

Yet his K rate was much higher in A and rookie ball. That is not normal variance. That is actual improvement.

If you actually want to point to something statistically relevant that is a difference it's his caught stealing rate.

In Billings, his K rate was 17.7%. That is 0.1% lower than where it was in Bakersfield and 0.7% lower than where it is in Pensacola. Yes, it is better than it was in Dayton. But it isn't any better than it was the year before that.

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

In Billings, his K rate was 17.7%. That is 0.1% lower than where it was in Bakersfield and 0.7% lower than where it is in Pensacola. Yes, it is better than it was in Dayton. But it isn't any better than it was the year before that.

And it's high A and AA vs. rookie ball. His combined rookie ball rate was 20.7%.

BTW...a K rate of 18% is not bad. That would place him 27th in the national league.