Tanner Rahier's Struggles

[Jamz]

I remember hearing a lot about him, and watching some video which was pretty awesome on him. However there appears to be some very serious struggles going on there.

Anyone have some insight or information?

[dougdirt]

The general rule of thumb is this: If a high schooler struggles in his first initial taste of pro ball, pay little attention to it.

He is walking 10% of the time and striking out 20% of the time. That isn't bad at all. His power isn't so good though, with a .109 Isolated Power number in a league where the ball generally flies well. His BABIP is .215 this season, but I also don't have a breakdown of his BIP right now, so how far off that is, I don't really know (having a bunch of infield flies would play with that number in just 200 PA's).

Overall though I am not concerned. He has power potential in his bat, he is drawing walks at a good clip and he isn't striking out a ton.

[Benihana]

Not concerned unless he struggles again next year in Billings (ie Gabriel Rosa).

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Not concerned unless he struggles again next year in Billings (ie Gabriel Rosa).

Rahier is all of 3 months younger today than Gabriel Rosa is.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Rahier is all of 3 months younger today than Gabriel Rosa is.

Yes, but he's had two professional seasons to Rahier's one. Both players have more than plenty of time to improve. I'm not particularly concerned with either, although you would like to see some signs of improvement in a player's second professional season, particularly if they are a second round draft pick doing their second stint in rookie ball.

[dougdirt]

Rosa was still one of the youngest players in the league and played with a hip injury all season long against mostly college players. Is it really a surprise that he didn't show signs of improvement? I don't know, I just think your expectations are a bit much with Rosa given his age and injury issues combined with the league he was playing in.

[lollipopcurve]

Rahier was also playing 3B, a tough position switch from SS. Like Doug said, both he and Rosa are way too young to write off. Still, sub .200 averages do raise some concern.

[dougdirt]

Just now, from Frankie Piliere on Rahier:

Weren't you very high on Tanner Rahier? Are you still?

Frankie Piliere:
Yes, and yes I still am. He's still driving the ball pretty well and not all these guys will go out and dominate right away. I'm still very confident in his future.

[Doc. Scott]

I've heard that complex league numbers are almost completely unimportant. It's never bad when you do well, but it's not even really necessary as long as you're showing upside.

[Blitz Dorsey]

A lot of spin-doctoring in this thread. I'm disappointed thus far.

[corkedbat]

I'm never "disappointed" in a high school player's first year. Throw'em out there and let'em get their feet wet. Let'em get adjusted to a new level and being away from home. The second and (especially) third years are the more critical years, IMO.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I'm never "disappointed" in a high school player's first year. Throw'em out there and let'em get their feet wet. Let'em get adjusted to a new level and being away from home. The second and (especially) third years are the more critical years, IMO.

Really, never even disappointed? That's a relatively light knock on a player. It's not like I'm saying "I've given up on Rahier, there's no hope for him." Far from it. I'm still glad he was the Reds' second-round pick. I think he was excellent value there. I think he has the potential to be a 3B at the MLB level.

That said, I'm still disappointed in how he's performed thus far. He has 193 ABs and he's batting on the interstate. It's OK to be disappointed with numbers like that. No one is bashing the kid and saying the Reds made a huge mistake in taking him.

If he were putting up good numbers, would you not care? Or would those be irrelevant too? Here's a good example: Are you excited about the year Jesse Winker is having at Billings? I sure as hell am. So, let's not pretend like a player fresh out of high school's stats don't matter at all.

But let me go against my own argument for a second: Billy Hamilton struggled mightily his first summer in pro ball. So, like I said, I still like the Rahier pick, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed to this point.

[bubbachunk]

Blitz, to me your hyper critical attitude does not belong in the minor league forum. Progress is often slow with these kids and you seem to want them all to be 18 year old prodigies.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

A lot of spin-doctoring in this thread. I'm disappointed thus far.

I was disappointed when Juan Duran struck out 40+ percent of his at bats last year. Like Doug said, Rahier's shown no red flags like that despite pretty unremarkable numbers so far. If he's overmatched next year, I'll join you in your disappointment.

[Scrap Irony]

There are certain things I look for in a minor leaguer.

1) Is he playing at or above the level he's supposed to be?
In Rahier's case, he is above his age group, as most are playing elsewhere. He's the second-youngest player on his team.

2) What's his BB rate? And how is that compared to his K rate?
In Rahier's case, he's not bad. A near 20% K rate isn't bad coming right out of high school, and a near 10% BB rate is also pretty good.

After that, I look at production as compared to league and team. Rahier certainly struggled in both senses. Then again, 200 ABs isn't all that much to gauge someone on, especially in the year he was drafted.

While he's not set the world on fire, there's just not a lot of information here upon which to get worried or excited.

It's quite a bit different for Winker. He's playing two levels beyond where he should be and dominating it. His BB rate is better, his K rate is better, and his production is better. He's ninth in the league in OPS and the only 18 year old. He's second in the league in obp. He's one of only three 18 year olds in the top 25 in slugging percentage. Youth plus production plus higher league equals excitement.