Two national guys chime in on Billy Hamilton today

[dougdirt]

Frankie Piliere had this in his chat today:

Mike:
Billy Hamilton is drawing a lot of walks this season, but with his entire lack of power and his questionable strikeout rate (18% per 100 PA's), is he going to be able to keep up a solid walk rate in the Majors without improving in one of those aspects since pitchers won't be worried about him taking them out of the park while also knowing he can be struck out?

Frankie Piliere:
It's a mild concern and I know some scouts that have brought it up. He's going to be incredibly exciting and unique we'll have to see how consistently he can drive the ball against big league pitching.

Jason Parks had this from his chat today:

ddufourlogger (Louisville, KY): Hey Professor! Tell me about what you see in Billy Hamilton. Besides the obvious! I see little reason for the Reds not to stick him in CF next spring (or this winter) and see if he can get it down defensively. He's got to move off of SS, yes? 2B is locked up for the Reds for awhile, and CF seems the best spot to get him in the lineup, especially if Drew Stubbs is what he is at this point...

Jason Parks: Changing positions isn't as easy as just penciling him into the lineup at the 8. Hamilton is a well above-average athlete, and I agree with you that his skill-set might be better suited in CF, but the process of transition isn't an overnight situation. It would take time to acclimate to the routes/angles/responsibilities of the position, and that would need to occur as the bat continues to develop. It's a lot to put on a young player. I'm still not sold that his bat is going to provide much at the highest level. If you want the best Hamilton possible, you keep him in the minors for at least another season (and possibly two) in order to properly develop the bat and make the necessary transition to the outfield. If you want a big result, the extra patience will be worth it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Jerry Crasnick had a great article on Hamilton last week.

"He's strong enough to defend himself at the plate," said an American League scout, "and he can outquick the ball at times. His hands work just fine."

Hamilton also is smart enough to realize that every ball hit in the air can be a wasted opportunity. He puts the right swing on the ball to generate lots of line drives and ground balls.

"He's a real quick study," said Bill Bavasi, Cincinnati's vice president of player development. "His baseball IQ is pretty high. He knows who he is and what his path is to the big leagues."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/82...ton-fast-track

[dougdirt]

I can absolutely see both sides here. I have seen Hamilton on some good days where he stings several balls on a line into the gaps. I have also seen Hamilton flailing away at pitches with weak, defensive swings early in counts in what I saw as an attempt to merely make contact, no matter how weak.

He certainly doesn't have bat speed problems. It is there. His swing mechanics from the left side leave a lot to be desired, but the pieces are there to work with, which is good.

[RedEye]

Jason Parks: Changing positions isn't as easy as just penciling him into the lineup at the 8. Hamilton is a well above-average athlete, and I agree with you that his skill-set might be better suited in CF, but the process of transition isn't an overnight situation. It would take time to acclimate to the routes/angles/responsibilities of the position, and that would need to occur as the bat continues to develop. It's a lot to put on a young player. I'm still not sold that his bat is going to provide much at the highest level. If you want the best Hamilton possible, you keep him in the minors for at least another season (and possibly two) in order to properly develop the bat and make the necessary transition to the outfield. If you want a big result, the extra patience will be worth it.

I'm just curious -- if this is true, what is it that Billy still has to learn in the minors that he can't learn in the majors? To me, it sounds like the big concern is whether his bat can work in The Show. But isn't that kind of a catch-22? After all, how are we going to know whether or not it works if he doesn't get a chance to hit major league pitching? And... related to that... wouldn't it therefore make sense to give him a September call-up this year just so that he can have that first cup of coffee -- and begin to understand just what it is he's up against?

[JKam]

Would Vince Coleman be a comparable to Billy Hamilton? Or do you expect Hamilton to be better/worse than Coleman?

Coleman's career slash is .324/.345/.668. He once stole 107 bases and scored 94 runs with a slash of .301/.280/.581. In Coleman's career year where he stole 109 bases and scored 121 runs his slash was .363/.358/.721.

Even with an OPS below .700 Hamilton could be a useful player. If he's anywhere above .700, he's likely a game changer or a complete terror.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I'm just curious -- if this is true, what is it that Billy still has to learn in the minors that he can't learn in the majors? To me, it sounds like the big concern is whether his bat can work in The Show. But isn't that kind of a catch-22? After all, how are we going to know whether or not it works if he doesn't get a chance to hit major league pitching? And... related to that... wouldn't it therefore make sense to give him a September call-up this year just so that he can have that first cup of coffee -- and begin to understand just what it is he's up against?

I think defense mostly. He's not good enough at SS as of now and definitely not good enough to play CF.

[Sea Ray]

Given his skill: blazing speed, I think it behooves the Reds not to leave him in the minors for too long. He's not likely to retain that skill in his 30s. He's going to age like an NFL tailback. In addition, I'd like to implore the Reds to encourage him to cut back on his stealing in the minors. Work on his success percentage and steal less than 50 next year at Louisville. I do understand that he needs time o learn the OF. I picture him as Deion Sanders in CF only with a better arm. Deion took questionable routes to get to balls but more often than not speed made up for it

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by JKam

Would Vince Coleman be a comparable to Billy Hamilton? Or do you expect Hamilton to be better/worse than Coleman?

Coleman's career slash is .324/.345/.668. He once stole 107 bases and scored 94 runs with a slash of .301/.280/.581. In Coleman's career year where he stole 109 bases and scored 121 runs his slash was .363/.358/.721.

Even with an OPS below .700 Hamilton could be a useful player. If he's anywhere above .700, he's likely a game changer or a complete terror.

Interesting point.

The standard sabremetric view is that stolen bases are largely no more than a nice add-on, given a high success rate. But are exceptions allowed for Coleman/Hamilton speed? Yes, a .310 OBP is too low for a 35sb player or even a 40sb or 50sb player. But a 110sb player?

A .301 OBP is too low, always. But, as you pointed out, Coleman scored 94 runs that year. Sure, Runs Scored is team dependent, but I checked, nobody else on that team scored more than 67.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Given his skill: blazing speed, I think it behooves the Reds not to leave him in the minors for too long.

That's my take as well. If they think he's got work to do to stick at shortstop, then move him to the OF, even leftfield. Unless they feel like he's going fill out and start driving more balls.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I'm just curious -- if this is true, what is it that Billy still has to learn in the minors that he can't learn in the majors?

What to do with the glove where ever his final destination is?
His lefthanded swing can smooth out.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Interesting point.

The standard sabremetric view is that stolen bases are largely no more than a nice add-on, given a high success rate. But are exceptions allowed for Coleman/Hamilton speed? Yes, a .310 OBP is too low for a 35sb player or even a 40sb or 50sb player. But a 110sb player?
.

I guess I always take that comment with a grain of salt.
Sure, it's better to have a 340 obp than a 310 obp. No one is arguing that.
But what's the impact? Over 600 plate appearances, that's getting on base 18 more times.. I've brought this up with Stubbs sometimes. Speed and power can compensate for a lower obp in Stubbs case (who I think has pretty much averaged 90 runs scored per season).. Billy obviously won't have Stubbs power, but the steals will put him in scoring position pretty often when he does reach base.

It's hard to quantify.. If Billy gets into scoring position X% more often than the average player (which causes him to score more frequently).. at some point, the speed makes up for lower OBP.. I can't really figure out what X% is.. Obviously caught stealings factor in also. But it seems that at some point, enough steals will offset getting OBP 18 fewer times in this example.

The standard argument about needing to be successful stealing 70% of the time is also flawed in my opinion. That's based on run expectancy numbers.
I have done the math at one time.. but the problem with that exercise is that the run expectancy for a guy at 1b also includes the benefit of stolen bases, bunts, productive outs and other "Smallball" activities which advance the runner to 2b. (It also includes the negative aspects like caught stealing).
That's a flaw when calculating the result using run expectancy, which is essentially a markov chain.. Maybe I am wrong here (someone please correct me).. I have not had the time to dig deeper into this.

[Kc61]

Reds really need to figure out Hamilton's defensive position by next year. Good point made that you don't want to keep his speed in the minors too long, that speed won't last forever.

I'm assuming one last year in the minors in 2013, so let's figure out where he's going to play and get it over with.

[chicoruiz]

Just a note: Everyone seems to take as a given that speed guys burn out early in their careers. I'm not sure that's historically true.

[JKam]

The standard sabremetric view is that stolen bases are largely no more than a nice add-on, given a high success rate. But are exceptions allowed for Coleman/Hamilton speed? Yes, a .310 OBP is too low for a 35sb player or even a 40sb or 50sb player. But a 110sb player?

Has sabremetric view changed at all now that home runs are way down in recent years? Does a SB become more valuable with less HRs?

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by JKam

Has sabremetric view changed at all now that home runs are way down in recent years? Does a SB become more valuable with less HRs?

I think it's slow to catch up. I still see the magic 70% thrown around a lot. As SeaRay mentions this may need to change. There is no fixed benchmark. It changes as the game changes.