2013: Looking ahead

[Benihana]

Similar to my earlier rotation projections, here is my best guess at the top 4 positional prospects at each projected 2013 starting level:

Louisville
1. Hamilton SS/CF
2. Gregorius SS
3. H.Rodriguez 3B/2B (although I actually believe he has a good shot to make Cincy's OD roster)
4. LaMarre CF

Pensacola
1. Lutz LF
2. Vidal 3B
3. Barnhart C
4. Wright 2B

Bakersfield
1. Y.Rodriguez OF
2. Waldrop OF
3. Mejias-Brean 3B (could likely skip Dayton to make room for Rahier/Rosa)
4. J.Perez 2B

Dayton
1. Winker OF
2. Gelalich OF
3. Rahier/Rosa 3B (one will start in Billings, the other in Dayton)
4. Vincej SS

[Hillsdale87]

Why push Rahier or Rosa to Dayton when they've been struggling mightily against lesser competition? I don't see how they've proven ready for a jump

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

So who are the guys who are legit options to be lost due to Rule V?

(e.g. we all know Corcino will be protected and Guillon, Duran and YRod are too far off to be drafted and held on to for a whole season)

A few guys that seem like possibilities to me:
- Serrano
- Fellhauer
- Puckett
- Mills (not a minor league FA?)

Mills isn't eligible because he doesn't have six full years of service time. Also, he was obtained in a trade--not on a 1-year free agent contract.

Here are the top-15 options with Dan Corcino being the only guarantee.
Theo Bowe
Nick Christiani
Carlos Contreras
Dan Corcino
Jonathan Correa
Tim Crabbe
Juan Duran
Josh Fellhauer
Justin Freeman
Ismael Guillon
Blaine Howell
Brian Pearl
Cody Puckett
Yorman Rodriguez
Mark Serrano

[mace]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Here are the top-15 options with Dan Corcino being the only guarantee.
Theo Bowe
Nick Christiani
Carlos Contreras
Dan Corcino
Jonathan Correa
Tim Crabbe
Juan Duran
Josh Fellhauer
Justin Freeman
Ismael Guillon
Blaine Howell
Brian Pearl
Cody Puckett
Yorman Rodriguez
Mark Serrano

With the performance that Guillon has put up over the past month or so, in conjunction with the talent that has been ascribed to him all along, I'd be leery of exposing him. I might consider him more at risk than Yorman.

Blaine Howell is another who gives me pause. Lefty who's had some success. This year has been uneven for him, but that could conceivably be written off to injuries and Bakersfield.

I really don't see Duran being in jeopardy if he's not protected. I guess Bowe, Christiani and Puckett are worth considering for the 40-man, but certainly not at the expense of somebody who really needs a spot.

Of course, a scout might have an entirely different take.

[Scrap Irony]

If Guillon's exposed and I'm Houston, he's my LOOGY for a year.

IMO, he's got to be protected.

[bellhead]

Louisville
1. Corcino
2. Cingrani
3. Redmond
4. Villareal
5. Obispo

Pensacola
1. Lotzkar
2. Rogers
3. J.Smith

If Redmond doesn't come back who could you see at AAA Lotzkar or Rogers???

Also who do you guys seeing having the better pitching coach AAA or AA????

[lollipopcurve]

With the performance that Guillon has put up over the past month or so, in conjunction with the talent that has been ascribed to him all along, I'd be leery of exposing him. I might consider him more at risk than Yorman.

Agreed. Both should be protected, IMO. You've got teams like Houston and the Cubs who are completely stripping down in favor of youth. Reds should be wary.

[redsof72]

Likely some position changes to sort out in instructional league. As I said several times this season, half the team in Dayton was playing out of position. Some guys that you may have penciled in somewhere may be at a different position. If you look at the Dayton infield this year that was the most commonly-used lineup (including players no longer there), I would say that all four guys may be playing a different position next year.

[Vottomatic]

I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.

A team has to weigh the pros and cons. If they're okay with no production from a 25-man roster spot for one season, they wouldn't need any of these players to be ready for the majors full-time until 2017.

[cinreds21]

Teams can be creative. The Pirates were when they took Donnie Veal from the Cubs a few years ago. They stashed him on the DL for most of the season. I don't think it's worth the risk. At worse he gets traded for a good player by next off-season at the lastest.

[camisadelgolf]

In case anyone doesn't know, a player must be on the active roster for at least 90 days to satisfy the rule 5 requirements. If he isn't, then the time must carry over to the next season. So if your plan is to stash someone on the dl all year, he has to be active for about half a season before he can be optioned.

[cinreds21]

I didn't mean all year, I'm just saying that it has been done before.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

I didn't mean all year, I'm just saying that it has been done before.

It's okay, d00d. No one said you meant that.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I'd expose Yorman. A team would have to be nuts to take him and keep him on their roster all year. He's not ready.

Keep in mind, too, that there are three phases of the Rule-5 Draft. Players not reserved are not only eligible for the Major League phase, but if a player isn't reserved at Triple-A, they are eligible for the Triple-A phase and if players aren't reserved above Single-A, they're also eligible for the Double-A phase.