Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? - Page 2 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

mth123 · 08-26-2012, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raisor

I would go:

Phillips
Bruce
Votto
Ludwick
Frazier
Rolen
Cozart
Catchers

That is a top notch lineup

I'd swap Bruce and Frazier.

_Sir_Charles_ · 08-26-2012, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 757690

Have people seen Bruce in right this year? No way I want that defense in center, ever... never ever.

Have people seen Frazier in left this year? No way I want that defense in right, ever... Never ever.

This team is 26 games over .500 and in first by 7 games because of their run prevention. Messing with that is just plain stupid.

I agree somewhat. Bruce in right has been fine. He's had a couple of bad games but overall he's been very good IMO.

But sacrificing defense at this point is pretty silly IMO. It's one of the main things that's gotten us where we are right now. Sure the pitching staff is going great...but how much of that is due to the defense? A lot I think.

757690 · 08-26-2012, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mth123

I think you are overstating the case on Frazier. He's a decent defensive OF. Probably better out there than at 3B. I might agree on Bruce, but wouldn't mind seeing it once or twice each week. I'd rather see them get a real CF over the next few days.

Bruce' issues have been more brainlocks though. His range seems fine though may be a bit of an issue in CF. Its not like he's going to be 2005 Griffey out there.

One or two days a week wouldn't be terrible, if done smartly, I agree. But I have a hard time remembering a playoff team that didn't have a true CF for most of their games.

Raisor · 08-26-2012, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I agree somewhat. Bruce in right has been fine. He's had a couple of bad games but overall he's been very good IMO.

But sacrificing defense at this point is pretty silly IMO. It's one of the main things that's gotten us where we are right now. Sure the pitching staff is going great...but how much of that is due to the defense? A lot I think.

If Stubbs had any ability to get on base at this point I would probably agree, but the difference between he and Frazier on offense is just HUGE.

mth123 · 08-26-2012, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 757690

One or two days a week wouldn't be terrible, if done smartly, I agree. But I have a hard time remembering a playoff team that didn't have a true CF for most of their games.

If Frazier plays 3B 2 or 3 times each week and maybe gets a start for Ludwick and/or Votto, he's probably is already in there 4 times per week. No way this will be more than once or twice weekly. Once you remove the day to day accumulation of the extra baserunners and extra pitches off the pitching staff from the equation, most of the downside is gone and it really does become more an exercise in run creation vs. run prevention and match-ups. I think that would favor sitting Stubbs more often.

Chip R · 08-26-2012, 10:08 AM

Frazier plays a barely adequate 1B and now people expect him to play RF?

757690 · 08-26-2012, 10:08 AM

Stubbs at this point has been a 1.5 win player this season, and that's with him being a neutral defender according to UZR. He's really not hurting the team as much as people think. He looks like he is at times, but overall he's just been slightly below average.

Kc61 · 08-26-2012, 10:16 AM

One of the big changes that helped turn the Reds into contenders was outfield defense.

I don't see the Reds reverting to a subpar outfield defensively.

Oh, when Votto is back, they might try this once or twice. But not as a regular matter.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Reds picked up another CF in a waiver deal next week, although it's tough because other teams can block these moves by putting in a waiver claim. I'm thinking of someone who might share the position with Stubbs for the rest of this season.

jojo · 08-26-2012, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 757690

Have people seen Bruce in right this year? No way I want that defense in center, ever... never ever.

Have people seen Frazier in left this year? No way I want that defense in right, ever... Never ever.

This team is 26 games over .500 and in first by 7 games because of their run prevention. Messing with that is just plain stupid.

I agree the suggestion would downgrade the defense significantly.

Scrap Irony · 08-26-2012, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 757690

Stubbs at this point has been a 1.5 win player this season, and that's with him being a neutral defender according to UZR. He's really not hurting the team as much as people think. He looks like he is at times, but overall he's just been slightly below average.

Stubbs ranks dead last among all qualified CF in WAR. He gets the bump because of his position, not because he's been great. Or good. Or acceptable. Or even less than acceptable.

Bruce, in CF, would be a 5.0 WAR player, or thereabouts.

mth123 · 08-26-2012, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 757690

Stubbs at this point has been a 1.5 win player this season, and that's with him being a neutral defender according to UZR. He's really not hurting the team as much as people think. He looks like he is at times, but overall he's just been slightly below average.

Just proves that WAR is flawed IMO.

Stubbs is at .227/.292/.372/.664 playing in the best hitting environment in the NL. His OPS+ is 74. If he really is a neutral defender, that just isn't a starting caliber player.

I think years of watching Griffey cover a 2 foot square followed by Corey Patterson and Willy Taveras has people with too low a bar for CF. Stubbs is better than those guys, but he is not a starting caliber player IMO. Sitting him twice per week might just make him better on the days he does play. Some guys are just better in small doses.

For comparison sake, Rick Ankiel was released with a line of .228/.282/.411/.694 for an OPS+ of 87 and he's a better defender.

oneupper · 08-26-2012, 10:44 AM

Stubbs can start vs. LHP not named Jaime Garcia. No prob. (.839 OPS vs. LHP)
Stubbs can start vs. the Astros and other AA pitchers. No prob.

Its the rest of the games which are up for debate. And that includes the playoffs where he will be facing elite pitchers.

Of course, you can always reduce the impact of his terrible bat vs. RHP by dropping him down in the order. From 2nd to 7th he gets almost a full 1 PA per game less. But I think I've heard that idea a few times before around here.

jojo · 08-26-2012, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Bruce, in CF, would be a 5.0 WAR player, or thereabouts.

That's not really true.

Assuming he started the entire season to date in CF, he'd get an additional .8 WAR of value due to the position adjustment because he'd be in a more valuable position so he'd be about a 3.3 WAR player. That said, he's been a -3 run defender in the corner. You'd expect his defensive value to take a hit if he had played the entire season in center (generally it's a 10 run ding to move from the corner to CF, that's the point of the position adjustment) so his WAR would be expected to take a hit. In other words, 3.5 WAR would be the most optimistic estimate.

RedsMan3203 · 08-26-2012, 10:51 AM

Its a good problem to have at this point....

I think the Reds will be able to play around with the idea the final 2 weeks of the season to see how it works...

I still think Bruce's D is under rated by a few people were at The Zone....

But, if you go to a huge ball park like SF... Stubbs has to start... Period.

Scrap Irony · 08-26-2012, 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jojo

That's not really true.

...3.5 WAR would be the most optimistic estimate.

So far. Add in the 0.8 bump he would receive as a CF. Add in another 0.7 WAR he would make as he improves and for the rest of the season.

There's your 5.0 WAR.

08-26-2012, 10:08 AM	#21
Chip R Rally Onion! Join Date: May 2000 Location: Cincinnati, OH Posts: 33,324	Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? Frazier plays a barely adequate 1B and now people expect him to play RF? __________________ The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day. http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

08-26-2012, 10:08 AM	#22
757690 Hoping to be 75769013 Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Dayton Posts: 6,416	Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? Stubbs at this point has been a 1.5 win player this season, and that's with him being a neutral defender according to UZR. He's really not hurting the team as much as people think. He looks like he is at times, but overall he's just been slightly below average. __________________ We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. - Albert Einstein

08-26-2012, 10:16 AM	#23
Kc61 Member Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,040	Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? One of the big changes that helped turn the Reds into contenders was outfield defense. I don't see the Reds reverting to a subpar outfield defensively. Oh, when Votto is back, they might try this once or twice. But not as a regular matter. I wouldn't be shocked if the Reds picked up another CF in a waiver deal next week, although it's tough because other teams can block these moves by putting in a waiver claim. I'm thinking of someone who might share the position with Stubbs for the rest of this season.

08-26-2012, 10:44 AM	#27
oneupper Danger is my business! Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Back in Florida Posts: 7,906	Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? Stubbs can start vs. LHP not named Jaime Garcia. No prob. (.839 OPS vs. LHP) Stubbs can start vs. the Astros and other AA pitchers. No prob. Its the rest of the games which are up for debate. And that includes the playoffs where he will be facing elite pitchers. Of course, you can always reduce the impact of his terrible bat vs. RHP by dropping him down in the order. From 2nd to 7th he gets almost a full 1 PA per game less. But I think I've heard that idea a few times before around here. __________________ "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it." http://dalmady.blogspot.com Last edited by oneupper; 08-26-2012 at 10:48 AM.

08-26-2012, 10:51 AM	#29
RedsMan3203 Reds Slacker '07 Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 3,783	Re: Bruce to CF, Frazier to RF on Votto return? Its a good problem to have at this point.... I think the Reds will be able to play around with the idea the final 2 weeks of the season to see how it works... I still think Bruce's D is under rated by a few people were at The Zone.... But, if you go to a huge ball park like SF... Stubbs has to start... Period. __________________ You think you got what it takes to play a real fantasy game? Join me at Jockstocks. You can play Baseball, Basketball, Football, Golf, Nascar and even Hockey! Jockstocks Homepage Do you have your shirt on? - Adam Dunn to Marty on the Bananna Phone.

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