If you could only keep one of either Leake or Bailey......

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Kc61

So we've got a 26 year old pitcher who's lost his fastball. Great.

Bailey's fastball hasn't been good since 2010. I honestly don't know why that is though.

[jojo]

By the end of the season, Homer will have accumulated about 4 years service time and roughly 650 IP. As a home grown arm, that's a success story and we should probably always remember that context.

But so far his performance has not come close to matching his projection. From that standpoint, he's been a disappointment. Unless he turns into King Felix over September and the playoffs, he'll be roughly 4 years in with a track record of a below average starting pitcher.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

In a perfect world, I'd like to see Chapman go to the rotation next year and Arroyo dealt and Bailey/Leake at the backend of the rotation. Arroyo is having a pretty nice season. A bounceback one in which none of us expected I think, but he's getting paid too much for what he provides. .

IMO, Bronson has earned every penny of his contract this year.
3.87 ERA.. on pace for about 200 IP.. Pitched great in the beginning of the year when the other guys were struggling.

Now granted, a team like the Reds can't afford to have 5 Arroyos in their rotation, but they can keep one.

If the playoffs started tommorrow, I'd really be tempted to put Arroyo in the #3 slot now, mainly because I think he's a safer bet not to get blown out of the water.. Leake and Homer are both bigger risks at this point, IMO.

If Arroyo can give us this level of production next year (not a given), this was a great extension, IMO. Yep, he stunk last year due to mono, other injuries, and perhaps not realizing his FB lost some zip.. but he turned it around this year, when we really needed him to ..

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Homer Baileys slider continues to be one of the best sliders in the game over the last two years. The idea that he doesn't have an out pitch continues to befuddle me. The problem is, his fastball simply isn't a good pitch anymore.

I'm not disagreeing with you.
How often does Homer use the slider on a 2 strike count to attempt to put the batter away? (Is there even a way to figure that out).
I think people have the perception that Homer gets to 2 strike counts and can't put the batter away. I'm not saying that I think that way.. I know with all pitchers, the mistakes are easier to remember.. I'm just curious.. do you think he's utilizing that great slider often enough.. (Anyone else is welcome to comment). I have listened to most of Homer's starts on the radio, so I really have no idea how often he uses his slider (the radio guys really don't call the pitch the way Welsh does on TV).

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

IMO, Bronson has earned every penny of his contract this year.
3.87 ERA.. on pace for about 200 IP.. Pitched great in the beginning of the year when the other guys were struggling.

Now granted, a team like the Reds can't afford to have 5 Arroyos in their rotation, but they can keep one.

If the playoffs started tommorrow, I'd really be tempted to put Arroyo in the #3 slot now, mainly because I think he's a safer bet not to get blown out of the water.. Leake and Homer are both bigger risks at this point, IMO.

If Arroyo can give us this level of production next year (not a given), this was a great extension, IMO. Yep, he stunk last year due to mono, other injuries, and perhaps not realizing his FB lost some zip.. but he turned it around this year, when we really needed him to ..

Arroyo is benefiting from a career low in walks it appears. Can he sustain that for the rest of the year? It's not that he's being vastly overpaid, it's that putting Chapman in his place, who is already paid for, makes a lot of sense. The money being used to pay Arroyo could free up salary to go out and get a better CF, improve the bullpen or buy a better utility infielder. Or a combination.

[traderumor]

Bailey gave up a blast to Craig. The rest was random, hole finding singles. That continued off Marshall. Wasn't our day. The most random game in the universe also makes it the most loveable and unpredictable. The Cardinals offense is good, but I'm not sure how much of it is gained off bouncers between the 3/4 and 5/6 holes. Cueto probably would have had a similar day.

[cincrazy]

I remember a time not too long ago when we didn't have a single pitcher as good as either Leake or Bailey. I'm more than ok with the fact that those are our 4 and 5 starters. We've come a long way, I'd say.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Arroyo is benefiting from a career low in walks it appears. Can he sustain that for the rest of the year? It's not that he's being vastly overpaid, it's that putting Chapman in his place, who is already paid for, makes a lot of sense. The money being used to pay Arroyo could free up salary to go out and get a better CF, improve the bullpen or buy a better utility infielder. Or a combination.

Well hypothetically, if Arroyo could be traded at any time during this season, I wouldn't do it.
He's far too valuable, plus the Reds aren't exactly in a budget crunch, so why even worry about it?

If Chapman was moved to the rotation, we'd have Marshall and Broxton closing now. And then we'd have Arrondo or Hoover as a setup guy.

How many innings could Chapman gone as a starter this year? Surely not 200 as Bronson is on pace for.. Is it worth it, if we have to get significant innings out of Redmond to bail out Chapman?

The starters have been able to keep the bullpen from being overworked this year. Arroyo was a big part of it..

Again, since the team isn't in a budget crunch, I see no reason to worry about Arroyo's salary at this point, since he's been a solid contributor.

I'd rather have Arroyo than Span too (Span seems to have been the most popular CF upgrade).

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Well hypothetically, if Arroyo could be traded at any time during this season, I wouldn't do it.
He's far too valuable, plus the Reds aren't exactly in a budget crunch, so why even worry about it?

If Chapman was moved to the rotation, we'd have Marshall and Broxton closing now. And then we'd have Arrondo or Hoover as a setup guy.

How many innings could Chapman gone as a starter this year? Surely not 200 as Bronson is on pace for.. Is it worth it, if we have to get significant innings out of Redmond to bail out Chapman?

The starters have been able to keep the bullpen from being overworked this year. Arroyo was a big part of it..

Again, since the team isn't in a budget crunch, I see no reason to worry about Arroyo's salary at this point, since he's been a solid contributor.

I'd rather have Arroyo than Span too (Span seems to have been the most popular CF upgrade).

I would not trade Arroyo trade Arroyo in the 2012 season (there's only a few days left anyway). If that wasn't clear before, then let me clear the air now. I'm talking about for next season.

As for Chapman and innings, make him the 5th starter. Chapman will be 25 next season, so he should be durable enough for the 5th starter spot. Give him rests or breaks when need be. Let LeCure or Simon pitch a game if necessary here and there.

We also have an option for Madson next year, which may be picked up. The money that would come off the books for Arroyo could be used to pluck another bullpen arm or two, which I think will be needed. Or it could be used to go out and get a better utility infielder and/or a CFer possibly. Even though the Reds have money coming off the books next year, you have a lot of players due raises as well. Money at some point does become an issue, and if the Reds can improve the team in other areas with that extra money, it sounds like a good plan to me.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I would not trade Arroyo trade Arroyo in the 2012 season (there's only a few days left anyway). If that wasn't clear before, then let me clear the air now. I'm talking about for next season.

We also have an option for Madson next year, which may be picked up. The money that would come off the books for Arroyo could be used to pluck another bullpen arm or two, which I think will be needed..

Ok, sorry I misunderstood you.
I guess that plan makes sense if you think Arroyo is going to be less effective next year, but since he's a junkball pitcher, I think he can maintain this level of production next year.

If we pick up Madson's option next year and subtract Arroyo's salary, I don't think there's much financial gain.. Madson's option is about 11 million, if I remember. That seems like a huge gamble for a guy coming off arm surgery.
I really only want Madson for much less money. We just don't know how he'll recover..

I guess it's just a matter of comfort level. Maybe this is blasphemy, but there's no guarantee that Chapman will be as good of a starter as Arroyo next year. Chapman is free agent eligible in 2017 .. 4 seasons left.. Why waste 1-2 of those years grooming him to be a starter for another team? Let's just enjoy him as the most dominant closer in the game.

Sure, we could move Chapman into the pen and sign a few bullpen arms, which maybe saves 4-5 million at the most, but it causes more uncertainty.
I want to keep this rotation intact next year. Keep Chapman in the pen too.
Why tamper with the winning formula, unless Walt is somehow able to get Cole Hammels or someone like that to upgrade Arroyo's slot.

[Vottomatic]

I look at results, and Arroyo has been surprisingly good. Obviously, last season was a blip.

[cumberlandreds]

Originally Posted by cumberlandreds

Leake; I think he will soon become an innings eater much like Arroyo. Every team can use durable pitchers like this.
Bailey just doesn't seem to be able to be consisent for a whole season. He's been better this season. But lately he's reverted back to Bad Bailey. Also like others have pointed out he has had shoulder issues. I'm wondering if that shoulder isn't barking a little now and he's not saying anything.

Can I change my vote?

[Vottomatic]

Damn. I became a Homer fan over the last month and he rewarded me with tonight.

On the postseason starter thread I've consistently wanted him to start game 2.

I don't want to trade Bailey or Leake. They should only get better. This starting rotation is young and good. All Walt needs to do is tweak the starting position lineup and this could be a dynasty. Seriously.

Re-sign Broxton and Madson. The bullpen is sound.

For a small market team, this is really impressive as an organization.

[wlf WV]

It seems Homer has found an effective fastball.I believe it was always there,just needed to know when and where to throw it.I still think Hanigan is vastly underrated by most,although Homer's success is mostly his own doing.

Originally Posted by Brutus

The unfortunate thing is the debate about "Leake or Homer" is a pointless, polarizing exercise. It's truthfully not even one that's necessary at this time (although it might be next season if Chapman goes back to the rotation). It's really a dividing topic, and I think it stems from the fact that, for some reason, we feel the need to tear someone else down in order to build someone up.

Funniest part about it is that 90% of Major League teams would be thrilled to have Leake/Homer as their 4/5 starters (or 5/4 depending on your viewpoint). That we're even having this debate says a lot about where the Reds have come. It sure beats the heck out of Jimmy Haynes and Jeff Austin, Seth Etherton, Elizardo Ramirez, etc.

I agree Brutus,we're blessed to even be having this conversation.It's like weather forecasters;if we have the same weather 3 days in a row(regardless of what it is),they will find controversy to stir up the audience.

[jojo]

Dump Leake. Not because Homer has taken a dramatic step forward (though 200 IP is significant). But because Leake is a HR tee who has yet to have an above average season as a major leaguer.