Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

That's why I'm thinking that IF his throwing mechanics don't get straightened out he'll probably end up in left.

Billy shouldn't even step foot on a major league diamond until he sorts out those mechanics. His bat will play at SS/CF, but his lack of power would really hurt his value if he gets shifted to LF.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by redsfandan

Well, I'm not picking on you Scrap but I think some baseball/Reds fans have been blinded by his speed into delevoping one heck of a man crush.

Brutus posted that Doug has been going out of his way to downplay anyone's excitement. I think Doug has just been trying to bring people back to earth a little bit as far as expectations for Hamilton go. He's still a prospect which means that he's pretty much all potential until he proves in the majors otherwise.

With all due respect, doug's been just about as wrong on Hamilton as is humanly possible so far.

And if a kid with a ceiling of .300+/.400+/.425 with plus SS defense isn't something to get excited about, I don't know what is.

I see very few posters on Redszone that think Hamilton's going to be an All-Star next season or something like that. Many have (rightly, IMO) pointed to his superior BB rate, BB:K ratio, BA, obp, speed, and improving glove as proof positive of a true difference-maker in the one spot the Reds are lacking: leadoff. Major league equivalent hitters include Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Brett Butler, Dave Collins, Otis Nixon, and Willie Wilson-- there's not a Hall of Famer in that group and very few All-Star nods.

Finally, I disagree that doug should "bring people back down to earth" on anyone. He should give his opinion without bias. IMO, doug tends to downgrade speed guys because he sees very little value in it. Others have disagreed with him on that for the five years he's been on the board and writing about prospects. In Hamilton's case, you have a guy who's got an 80 tool-- a true top of the line tool. It's one many national writers and prospect pundits have noted-- why shouldn't fans be excited about that?

[dougdirt]

Until Hamilton goes out and does something in the Majors, it is insane to suggest I have been "about as wrong as humanly possible" on him so far. Given that I ranked him #1 in the entire Reds system and ranked him inside the Top 50 prospects in the game, I really find it hard to believe that it is hard to be the worst humanly possible in my assessment of him. I also have said that he could compete for future MVP awards if things go right for him.

So I would suggest that you do a little more research before you decide to try and throw my opinions out as the worst humanly possible.

I am not going to get into any more of your post because I don't feel like spelling out why fans should be hesitant on Hamilton right now for the 100th time.

[OGB]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Until Hamilton goes out and does something in the Majors, it is insane to suggest I have been "about as wrong as humanly possible" on him so far. Given that I ranked him #1 in the entire Reds system and ranked him inside the Top 50 prospects in the game, I really find it hard to believe that it is hard to be the worst humanly possible in my assessment of him. I also have said that he could compete for future MVP awards if things go right for him.

So I would suggest that you do a little more research before you decide to try and throw my opinions out as the worst humanly possible.

I am not going to get into any more of your post because I don't feel like spelling out why fans should be hesitant on Hamilton right now for the 100th time.

I don't always agree with you, Doug, but I'll always acknowledge that you study the game (particularly the minors) far more than I do. Because of that, I have a lot of respect for your opinion. To that I'll add that it is refreshing to see someone who is able to evaluate the prospects of his favorite team objectively when the overall tone of this board is one of rampant, ridiculous optimism. It always makes me laugh when people post something about a projected Reds lineup and rotation two or three years from now and more than half of the players are still playing in AA or lower.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by OGB

I don't always agree with you, Doug, but I'll always acknowledge that you study the game (particularly the minors) far more than I do. Because of that, I have a lot of respect for your opinion. To that I'll add that it is refreshing to see someone who is able to evaluate the prospects of his favorite team objectively when the overall tone of this board is one of rampant, ridiculous optimism. It always makes me laugh when people post something about a projected Reds lineup and rotation two or three years from now and more than half of the players are still playing in AA or lower.

I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of. If Hamilton only projects as a .750 OPS bat with 80 steals, he would be of enormous value. One doesn't even have to expect power to ever develop to hope for a .350/.400/.750 situation.

If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of. If Hamilton only projects as a .750 OPS bat with 80 steals, he would be of enormous value. One doesn't even have to expect power to ever develop to hope for a .350/.400/.750 situation.

If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.

I agree that "ridiculous, rampant optimism" probably isn't the best way to put it, but what RedsZone lacks that every non-Reds baseball forum has is a healthy number of 'pessimists' in regards to Billy Hamilton. It's not that too many people are expecting him to be the next Rickey Henderson so much as it is the lack of people who think he might become the next Brian Hunter.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I agree that "ridiculous, rampant optimism" probably isn't the best way to put it, but what RedsZone lacks that every non-Reds baseball forum has is a healthy number of 'pessimists' in regards to Billy Hamilton. It's not that too many people are expecting him to be the next Rickey Henderson so much as it is the lack of people who think he might become the next Brian Hunter.

Or the next Tony Womack...

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I agree that "ridiculous, rampant optimism" probably isn't the best way to put it, but what RedsZone lacks that every non-Reds baseball forum has is a healthy number of 'pessimists' in regards to Billy Hamilton. It's not that too many people are expecting him to be the next Rickey Henderson so much as it is the lack of people who think he might become the next Brian Hunter.

Even though I'm far from any kind of expert, I am not as high on Hamilton as most are, even though I do think he's 1 of the best prospects in the system. I am however happy and impressed with the amount of improvements he's made this year, but I think the defense is a real issue for him. Even though he's lightening fast, he has to be a better base stealer and read pitchers better for that speed to have the same value too. I'm not sure he can maintain that walk rate either, but I think he can still walk at a decent clip.

If he continues putting up similar numbers at Louisville and improves his defense significantly, I'll have complete faith.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I agree that "ridiculous, rampant optimism" probably isn't the best way to put it, but what RedsZone lacks that every non-Reds baseball forum has is a healthy number of 'pessimists' in regards to Billy Hamilton. It's not that too many people are expecting him to be the next Rickey Henderson so much as it is the lack of people who think he might become the next Brian Hunter.

Maybe, but that just means a lot of people have realistic expectations of his ceiling. I guess I don't understand why the lack of pessimism is considered a bad thing, especially if people are at least being rational -- which it seems to me they are.

Should we have a quota on pessimists? lol

I wasn't high on Hamilton until this year, though I've probably said that several times in the past month. But he's winning me over not because of being overly optimistic but because he's proving himself on the field by showing improvements in areas that historically translate to success. Honestly, I don't think people should expect him to be a bust. Not that it's not possible, but he's showing signs of being a legitimate top-tier prospect.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of. If Hamilton only projects as a .750 OPS bat with 80 steals, he would be of enormous value. One doesn't even have to expect power to ever develop to hope for a .350/.400/.750 situation.

If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.

I'd call .750 OPS and 80 Steals pretty darned optimistic. The fact that you qualify it with "only" seems to make it "ridiculous, rampant optimism" IMO. Kid's in AA for half a season. Its still a long way to the major leagues.

This season has been a big step forward for Hamilton. I'm very encouraged by his bat. The steals don't mean so much to me and seem more like a sideshow IMO, but that slash line has him up at the top of my prospect list. Still, he's far from a sure thing. Better players with better stats have completely washed out at the big league level. People act like he's an impact lead-off guy at minimum and I think the downside is much lower than that. It is with every minor leaguer who has never played a day in the big leagues.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'd call .750 OPS and 80 Steals pretty darned optimistic. The fact that you qualify it with "only" seems to make it "ridiculous, rampant optimism" IMO. Kid's in AA for half a season. Its still a long way to the major leagues.

This season has been a big step forward for Hamilton. I'm very encouraged by his bat. The steals don't mean so much to me and seem more like a sideshow IMO, but that slash line has him up at the top of my prospect list. Still, he's far from a sure thing. Better players with better stats have completely washed out at the big league level. People act like he's an impact lead-off guy at minimum and I think the downside is much lower than that. It is with every minor leaguer who has never played a day in the big leagues.

He's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS at Double-A and you think projecting 100 points lower at the major league level is "ridiculous, rampant optimism?" A .290 average, .100 ISO and 8-9% walk rate translates into a .750 OPS. It's not a sure thing but it's not far-fetched. Again, he's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS in AA. There are less than a dozen players in all of Double-A this year carrying an .850 OPS.

You're going to have to explain how on earth that's ridiculous optimism.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

With all due respect, doug's been just about as wrong on Hamilton as is humanly possible so far.

And if a kid with a ceiling of .300+/.400+/.425 with plus SS defense isn't something to get excited about, I don't know what is.

I see very few posters on Redszone that think Hamilton's going to be an All-Star next season or something like that. Many have (rightly, IMO) pointed to his superior BB rate, BB:K ratio, BA, obp, speed, and improving glove as proof positive of a true difference-maker in the one spot the Reds are lacking: leadoff. Major league equivalent hitters include Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Brett Butler, Dave Collins, Otis Nixon, and Willie Wilson-- there's not a Hall of Famer in that group and very few All-Star nods.

Finally, I disagree that doug should "bring people back down to earth" on anyone. He should give his opinion without bias. IMO, doug tends to downgrade speed guys because he sees very little value in it. Others have disagreed with him on that for the five years he's been on the board and writing about prospects. In Hamilton's case, you have a guy who's got an 80 tool-- a true top of the line tool. It's one many national writers and prospect pundits have noted-- why shouldn't fans be excited about that?

I didn't say he isn't a prospect to get excited about. I just think some people are making the same mistake with Billy that is made with a lot of prospects. And that is that (some) people start dreaming about what kind of player the prospect could become if he improves this or that and they just get carried away with it.

I've never thought that Doug downgrades speed guys. My impression has been that he just didn't think that speed alone boosted the value of a prospect as much as what others thought. I can understand that. If I were to pick one tool for a prospect to be an 80 in it wouldn't be speed. Imo, the hit tool, power, and defense, mean more.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I don't see any of this "ridiculous, rampant optimism" you speak of.

I do.

Originally Posted by Brutus

Maybe, but that just means a lot of people have realistic expectations of his ceiling. I guess I don't understand why the lack of pessimism is considered a bad thing, especially if people are at least being rational -- which it seems to me they are.

When I see posts that say he'll be 'truly outstanding defensively' or that he'll develop any kind of real power that doesn't sound realistic or rational to me. That sounds like someone spending too much time dreaming about what ifs.

[Cooper]

I just want to get some confirmation on the vaule of steals -- this is what i have read:

1. guy steals 100 bases
2. gets caught 25 times
3. you double the amount of bases caught 25 x2 and subtract that from 100 bases stolen = 50 bases and then you multiplay that by .66 = 33.

At that point you can then add those bases to the players total bases and come up with a SLG%.

With Hamilton @ AA: 50 sb x 15(2)= 20 bases x .66 = 13 bases. You add that on to his total bases of 64 + 13 = 77 divided by 155 at-bats =

.498 SLG% along with a .429 OBA. I'm not sure the numbers make sense but if they do -you have a very valuable player.

Let's do his combined totals for the year: 154-72= 82 x.66= 54 +212= 266 total bases divided by 492 = .541 SLG + .418 OB% = .959 OPS

Are these values correct? Is this what his sorta true value is ??? i don't have enough sabermetric knowledge to know anymore -i've gotten old and have kept up with things as much as i used to.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Brutus

He's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS at Double-A and you think projecting 100 points lower at the major league level is "ridiculous, rampant optimism?" A .290 average, .100 ISO and 8-9% walk rate translates into a .750 OPS. It's not a sure thing but it's not far-fetched. Again, he's 21 and has nearly an .850 OPS in AA. There are less than a dozen players in all of Double-A this year carrying an .850 OPS.

You're going to have to explain how on earth that's ridiculous optimism.

Your original post says

If he sustains a 10-12% walk rate, and around 18% strikeout rate, he'll fit in the above line. And that's not really ridiculously optimistic to expect.

The math based on the assumptions isn't where I'm having the issue. The IF itself to me is wildly optimistic. The 10 to 12% walk rate and 18% K Rate at the big league level are both still optimistic assumptions. We seem to forget that the two little letters "IF" in the front of the assumption carries the possibility that those things may not happen.

There are 38 qualifiers in the NL with an OPS of at least .750. To assume that a guy with a half a season in AA will be in that fairly select group seems wildly optimistic IMO. It's not impossible. It's worth giving a chance and finding out. But hitting in the big leagues and hitting in AA are not the same thing.

Trust me, I'm dreaming about it too. But I'm not assuming its automatic. I'd certainly give him a serious look at a spot where the Reds have a need (hint: its in the OF and not at SS), but I wouldn't deal a solid player to create a spot for him. I don't think it will take all that long to convert to CF. I'd begin that process no later than next spring with an eye on Hamilton getting the call by Memorial Day unless Stubbs takes a huge step forward. I'd probably start him out platooning with Stubbs. In AA, his OPS vs RHP is .893 vs only .727 vs. LHP. He seems a nice fit with Stubbs in a platoon until he can grab the job full time. That would be a low risk way to break him in. The Reds have gotten little from CF against RHP anyway. If he tanks, it doesn't make the team much worse off.