Todd Frazier

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Todd Frazier:

AAA: 1,007 PA, .788 OPS
AA: 500 PA, .831 OPS

I'd expect a number somewhere between those two going forward. It's a great year he is having, but his minor league numbers indicate that this isn't the real Todd Frazier.

Completely leaving out his 554 MLB PA and their accompanying .864 OPS is a flawed way to come up with a projection.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Completely leaving out his 554 MLB PA and their accompanying .864 OPS is a flawed way to come up with a projection.

He has 2258 minor league PAs as an .827 OPS player. In his "high minors" (AA-AAA), he has an .802 OPS (.340 / .462 SLG) on 1507 PAs.

Is it possible he's improved? Sure, I'm not going to discount that entirely. But, I'm going to view 2,000+ PAs as more significant to future projection than barely a full season of MLB PAs. I'm always going to view an all-star turn skeptically from a guy who was good, but not great, in his minor league career.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

He has 2258 minor league PAs as an .827 OPS player. In his "high minors" (AA-AAA), he has an .802 OPS (.340 / .462 SLG) on 1507 PAs.

Is it possible he's improved? Sure, I'm not going to discount that entirely. But, I'm going to view 2,000+ PAs as more significant to future projection than barely a full season of MLB PAs. I'm always going to view an all-star turn skeptically from a guy who was good, but not great, in his minor league career.

I understand your logic. But I would argue his more recent 554 MLB PA should be weighted much higher than his 500 AA PA.

Minor league stats help project a guy going forward, but so do 554 big league PA's. Just don't brush them aside...include them in your reasoning.

[max venable]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

About his no handed HR:



That sums it up for me. He is excellent at getting the right part of the bat on the ball.

This was just funny:

Here's a nice slo-mo look at his no-hands HR: TF no-hands HR

[SirFelixCat]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Todd Frazier:

AAA: 1,007 PA, .788 OPS
AA: 500 PA, .831 OPS

I'd expect a number somewhere between those two going forward. It's a great year he is having, but his minor league numbers indicate that this isn't the real Todd Frazier.

Pretty sure Votto never had a MVP type season in the minors either.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SirFelixCat

Pretty sure Votto never had a MVP type season in the minors either.

Pretty sure you are wrong. He was the Southern League MVP the year he was in AA. He had a season with a .912 OPS where he split between Dayton (90%) and Potomac (10%). In Billings he had a .939 OPS.

[SirFelixCat]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Pretty sure you are wrong. He was the Southern League MVP the year he was in AA. He had a season with a .912 OPS where he split between Dayton (90%) and Potomac (10%). In Billings he had a .939 OPS.

But not at the level he's had in the big leagues. The point is players can improve after graduating in the minors.

[Nasty_Boy]

I don't know that Frazier's OBP or BA will remain this high going forward, but I've been convinced of his power since he started getting playing time last season. He seems to look very comfortable against LH and I've really been surprised at how well he's handled guys from the right side. I think he'll continue to slug going forward and take a hit in the BA area... Hopefully he'll make up for that with some walks and be an .800+ guy going forward. But I had no doubts coming into this season on his power... I felt pretty strongly that he had 25-30 HR power. The other stuff is a pleasant surprise.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by max venable

Here's a nice slo-mo look at his no-hands HR: TF no-hands HR

I was there. It was a wild, wild day of HR derby. It was 100 degrees that day and balls were flying everywhere. The difference in the game was that BP hit a 3 run jack and the Rockies could only muster solo shots.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by SirFelixCat

But not at the level he's had in the big leagues. The point is players can improve after graduating in the minors.

Yeah, but Todd's improvements are coming from a high BABIP, not really an improvement in his other skillsets. Votto's improvements came from more power, more walks and less strikeouts. Big difference.

[Patrick Bateman]

I thnk Frazier is more than likely more like his AA stats. AAA was a bit misleading as it does seem to sap power (ie. Joey Votto). You bump up his AAA stats, and they look more like his AA stats. You regress his major leagues stats, and they look more or less the same.

He's a good hitter, and will be a good starter as long as he can show that he can adequately defend at 3rd or LF. He'll never be a great player though IMO.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by traderumor

I think CE has made the mistake of using a general principal to take a dogmatic position on a specific case. That is not the intention of the general principal. The only thing certain is that there will be outliers when it comes to a population of "all hitters in minor league history." Unless CE has some special, supernatural predictive ability of who the outliers are and are not, Frazier could perform better than his minor league numbers in his major league career.

Sure, anything is possible but if Frazier was a Cardinal, redszoners would have no problem dropping 'roider insinuations.

CE isn't being dogmatic. Frazier is having the best season of his professional carreer (above rookie ball) as a major leager with little service time. CE is being a healthy skeptic based upon past experience.

[backbencher]

Originally Posted by jojo

if Frazier was a Cardinal, redszoners would have no problem dropping 'roider insinuations

If Frazier were a Cardinal, we'd be right! And he'd probably be a sign-stealer, as well . . . .

[REDREAD]

It's really hard to say.
Frasier does an excellent job of protecting the plate with two strikes. He has a nice 2 strike swing.
His power is legitimate.

I see him being around an 825-850 OPS bat next year (maybe even higher, but I want to temper my enthusiasm).
He and Cozart have been wonderful surprises this season.

[backbencher]

Originally Posted by dfs

I don't see the reds investing resources in Rolen when Frazier is ready to play for the league minimum.

I'm not sure how anyone who has watched the Reds, or most any other MLB team for that matter, can say that. Teams like certainty, and certainty usually translates to veterans.

Sure, Rolen would have to have a new deal, and it would have to be smaller. But I have not seen any indication that he wants to retire or that the Reds management will push him to do anything other than continue to play.