Billy Hamilton continuing to excel at AA

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by bellhead

He's lowered his strikeout rate every year and increased his walk rate, maybe he'll hit that mark by his 3rd or 4th year in the majors.

No, he hasn't. He lowered it from GCL to Billings, then went up in Dayton, then down in Bakersfield and now up again now that he is in Pensacola.

26.1%
17.7%
21.8%
17.9%
19.6%

That is his strikeout rate by level. Down, up, down, up. Lowest rate of his career was in Billings.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Hamilton's 2012 K rate is 18.4%. His career K rate is just over 20%.

Willie Wilson struck out around 20% of the time in his minor league career.
Mookie Wilson struck out around 15% of the time.
Ron LeFlore struck out around 20% of his ABs over the course of his career.
Devon White struck out 21.2% of his minor league ABs.
Marquis Grissom struck out only 12% of his minor league ABs.
Lou Brock struck out 15.4% of his major league ABs. (His minor league K numbers have been lost in the ether of baseball statistics.)
Roberto Kelly struck out around 16% of his minor league ABs.
Vince Coleman struck out around 17% of the time he stepped to the minor league plate.
Omar Moreno topped the 20% mark in minor league K rate as well.
Al Bumbry topped 18% in his minor league numbers.

Everyone's different. Hamilton's learned how to switch hit, he started at a much younger age, and he's had a long, long way to go. The progress he's made has been substantial. None of that seems to gain much weight, though, in favor of an assumption (pitchers will suddently throw him strikes at higher levels) that's both impossible to prove and has proven largely wrong over the history of the game.

For the most part, the BB rate a minor league guy has will be close to his major league BB rate.

For the most part, the K rate a minor league guy has will be close to his major league K rate.

More credence and emphasis should be given to higher level numbers.

All of these trend positively for Hamilton.

Whether that's blind-eyed optimism or not, I suppose I'll let the others decide. I don't particularly care what they think of my opinion anyway. Ultimately, someone will be proven right and someone else wrong.

FTR, I may be full of hot air in thinking Hamilton is indeed a legitimate upper level prospect. That, at his ceiling, he's a game-changer. That, in his most likely iteration, he's a leadoff hitter that will provide above average obp and speed-adjusted wRC+.

Ultimately, we'll all see one way or another.

All of that because I said that Butler struck out half as often as Hamilton does?

Look, I get that Hamilton learned to switch hit as a pro (or really close to it) and that he started out as a pro much younger, but he isn't going to literally cut his strikeout rate in half. People just don't do that. He can absolutely be successful without doing it. But Brett Butler is not a good comp for him.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

All of that because I said that Butler struck out half as often as Hamilton does?

Look, I get that Hamilton learned to switch hit as a pro (or really close to it) and that he started out as a pro much younger, but he isn't going to literally cut his strikeout rate in half. People just don't do that. He can absolutely be successful without doing it. But Brett Butler is not a good comp for him.

Barry Bonds cut his strikeout rate by more than 2/3.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No, he hasn't. He lowered it from GCL to Billings, then went up in Dayton, then down in Bakersfield and now up again now that he is in Pensacola.

26.1%
17.7%
21.8%
17.9%
19.6%

That is his strikeout rate by level. Down, up, down, up. Lowest rate of his career was in Billings.

It's still trending in a positive (ie, favorable + downward) direction.
If he was able to have a lower K ratio in Bakersfield as opposed to Dayton, that's a good thing, isn't it?

He's been in AA for a limited time, I'm not sure the 2% difference is significant. It will be interesting to see what his ratio is next year.

I'm extremely impressed that Billy's offensive numbers have pretty much stayed the same from his promotion to AA (albeit, a small sample size).
That's made me even more optimistic about his future.

[bubbachunk]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

It's still trending in a positive (ie, favorable + downward) direction.
If he was able to have a lower K ratio in Bakersfield as opposed to Dayton, that's a good thing, isn't it?

He's been in AA for a limited time, I'm not sure the 2% difference is significant. It will be interesting to see what his ratio is next year.

I'm extremely impressed that Billy's offensive numbers have pretty much stayed the same from his promotion to AA (albeit, a small sample size).
That's made me even more optimistic about his future.

There is absolutely no trending in those numbers and the past 4 years are perfectly inline statistically speaking. The one outlier would be the first year at 26%

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by bubbachunk

There is absolutely no trending in those numbers and the past 4 years are perfectly inline statistically speaking. The one outlier would be the first year at 26%

It depends on your point of view.
If he's moving to a harder level and maintaining the same rate or a slightly lower rate, isn't that improving?

I actually agree with Doug on one thing.. If his rate at Bakerfield was 17%, and it's 19% now, that might mean Billy is struggling as he advances.. We will have to see how that plays out with more playing time.

Also, the 26% is not an outlier. It actually happened. Billy has improved.
He didn't strike out 26% of the time in his first year due to random fluctations or sampling error.

[bubbachunk]

Actually I did chart the rates and none of them are out of control. Even if you make control limits based on the last 4 points the 26.1% would still fall inside the limits.

If you want to claim that due to league advancedment his rates have actually trended then you need some way to normalize the data for such a factor. Because as far as statistics are concerned when you are doing an I-chart 17% at low A=17% at high A.

Lastly, it statisically would not be surprising if next year if he struck out at over the prevous 26% rate. It would be within the limits of his past results.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Brett Butler is not a good comp for him.

If you're talking pure numbers (and it's hard to tell if you are), I'd agree, as Butler didn't hit the upper minors until he was 24.

But their style of play is very similar.

Both attempt to use the bunt as a weapon not only for infield hits, but as a way to boost doubles and triples down the lines.

Both sacrifice power for BA and won't swing at pitches out of the zone.

Both utilize speed as their primary weapon.

If style of play counts, Butler is the type of player Hamilton looks to be patterning his game after.

[RedsManRick]

What's crazy about Brett Butler is how flat/plateaued his career was. At this best, he hit .300/.400/.400. I don't think Hamilton will strike out as little or walk as much, but it has a nice prime of .280/.350/.380, plays good up-the-middle defense and steals 60+ bags at an 80% clip, that's a very valuable player.

Maybe Carl Crawford with a little less power is a better comp.

[corkedbat]

Even if their intent is to keep Billy at SS for now, I'd still send him to the Fall Instructional League and/or the Arizona Fall League to get his feet wet in CF just to open up options a bit.

[Dan]

Strikeout rate is irrelevant without taking into account the walk rate as well. BH walls nearly as much as he strikes out. That is a good thing, and bodes well, no matter his stand alone strikeout rate.