Is Heisey now the incumbent?

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I'm still not convinced of that. He has a career .768 OPS. The average CF is .730. I don't see any reason he couldn't be an average starter out there on an everyday basis.

This, this, a thousand times this.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by RedEye

This, this, a thousand times this.

Ultimately I don't worry about CF because I'm confident the Reds can get by in 2012 either way and I expect a change in that position next year.

But we should remember that Stubbs missed time in June and Heisey didn't hit when he got the chance. Heisey was below .600 OPS that month and the game threads on RedsZone were wondering when Stubbs would return. (Heisey has had good months too, but in June he was he was the CFer for an extended period.)

The bottom line, though, is that Walt wants superior defense in key positions and he obviously doesn't see Chris as providing that in CF. He likes Stubbs' defense. It's just obvious that defense is driving this train.

Funny thing is that Heisey, defensively, is one of the best LEFT fielders I've seen. He's really outstanding out there. I also like his power and his hustle. There are things about his game I don't like, but he's been valuable overall.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Ultimately I don't worry about CF because I'm confident the Reds can get by in 2012 either way and I expect a change in that position next year.

But we should remember that Stubbs missed time in June and Heisey didn't hit when he got the chance. Heisey was below .600 OPS that month and the game threads on RedsZone were wondering when Stubbs would return. (Heisey has had good months too, but in June he was he was the CFer for an extended period.)

I'm guessing it's a pretty short list of players who don't have some stretch of 83 PAs with below a .600 OPS.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by nate

I'm guessing it's a pretty short list of players who don't have some stretch of 83 PAs with below a .600 OPS.

LOL, it's a pretty long list of ballplayers who got a month to prove themselves and failed and never got another chance.

Yes, anyone can have a bad month. But when you have an audition it's a good idea to do well right then. Frazier did well when he took over for Rolen. Now he's basically a regular.

It's may be unfair but so far Chris hasn't had another full time CF opportunity since June. Maybe he will get one, maybe not. That's sports.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by nate

I'm guessing it's a pretty short list of players who don't have some stretch of 83 PAs with below a .600 OPS.

That is true, but based on the eye test, Chris seems more prone to slumps when given regular starting duties.

That is, however, not an endorsement that he should not be given the chance, because I think he should. Ultimately, while these 2 players are our primary CF options, I think the solution is to play the hot hand (or rather the one who is not slumping) until one of them seizes the role.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

That is true, but based on the eye test, Chris seems more prone to slumps when given regular starting duties.

That is, however, not an endorsement that he should not be given the chance, because I think he should. Ultimately, while these 2 players are our primary CF options, I think the solution is to play the hot hand (or rather the one who is not slumping) until one of them seizes the role.

Even if you assumed an eye test was a safe way to draw such a conclusion, when has he really ever been given "regular starting duties" long enough to determine he's "more prone to slumps?"

Just a cursory look at his game logs shows he's only made at least a week's worth of starts consecutively once in his career (this year when Stubbs went on the DL). So I honestly don't see how anyone should believe they have enough data to know whether someone was prone to slumps given such limited opportunity.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Even if you assumed an eye test was a safe way to draw such a conclusion, when has he really ever been given "regular starting duties" long enough to determine he's "more prone to slumps?"

Just a cursory look at his game logs shows he's only made at least a week's worth of starts consecutively once in his career (this year when Stubbs went on the DL). So I honestly don't see how anyone should believe they have enough data to know whether someone was prone to slumps given such limited opportunity.

I recall several stints last year when he was given regular time in the OF, though yes, this is all based on memory so I concede completely that I could be mistaken. At any rate, I think his stats warrant another regular go at it out there.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

I recall several stints last year when he was given regular time in the OF, though yes, this is all based on memory so I concede completely that I could be mistaken. At any rate, I think his stats warrant another regular go at it out there.

Looking back at last year, it appears he never started more than five games in a row and that only happened once (to end the season).

He started four games in a row one other time.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Looking back at last year, it appears he never started more than five games in a row and that only happened once (to end the season).

He started four games in a row one other time.

Just curious, do you have the numbers on what the greatest % of games he started through any stretch of the season? He might not have played every game in a row, but got a day or two off.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

Just curious, do you have the numbers on what the greatest % of games he started through any stretch of the season? He might not have played every game in a row, but got a day or two off.

It's something I'd have to look up manually. I guess it depends how long a stretch we're talking. Two weeks? Three? A month?

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

It's something I'd have to look up manually. I guess it depends how long a stretch we're talking. Two weeks? Three? A month?

Probably no more than 2-3 weeks. I'll readily acknowledge though my perception of his regular PT may have been incorrect.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Kc61

LOL, it's a pretty long list of ballplayers who got a month to prove themselves and failed and never got another chance.

Yes, anyone can have a bad month. But when you have an audition it's a good idea to do well right then. Frazier did well when he took over for Rolen. Now he's basically a regular.

It's may be unfair but so far Chris hasn't had another full time CF opportunity since June. Maybe he will get one, maybe not. That's sports.

In 83 PA, what's the difference between a sub-.600 OPS and a "winning starting job" OPS?

[nate]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

That is true, but based on the eye test, Chris seems more prone to slumps when given regular starting duties.

To me, the eye test can't measure something as complex as whether or not a player is appreciably streakier than his peers.

Then again, I wear glasses.

That is, however, not an endorsement that he should not be given the chance, because I think he should. Ultimately, while these 2 players are our primary CF options, I think the solution is to play the hot hand (or rather the one who is not slumping) until one of them seizes the role.

This is more or less what I'm saying...why not try it.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by nate

In 83 PA, what's the difference between a sub-.600 OPS and a "winning starting job" OPS?

It would be some performance level that would make Walt Jocketty say - "hey, Chris has really come along. He impressed us during this stint. He's so much better than Stubbs at the plate we need to start him often in CF."

I guess a .265 OBP, a .316 SLG, and a .582 OPS for that month didn't quite do the trick.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Looking back at last year, it appears he never started more than five games in a row and that only happened once (to end the season).

He started four games in a row one other time.

Heisey had 12 starts from Aug 29 to Sept 12 2010 and went .235/.250/.353.

That looks to be his longest stretch and where some of his rep was earned.