Drew Stubbs: What if?

[Wonderful Monds]

Drew's been a hot topic around here lately, but I dont want to go down the same road most of the conversations about him have.

What I'm interested in, is do you think, on another team that was getting him to use a different approach, could Drew have been so much more?

Drew flashed a lot of potential as recent as 2010, and many of us, myself included, thought Drew was on the road to becoming a Mike Cameron type for us for quite some time. That has clearly not been the case. A few of us have speculated that since Drew has hit near the top of the lineup, he has changed his approach for the worse. It's been argued that he should be swinging for the fences as much as possible, but the expectation for him to be a table setter got him derailed.

So, amateur scouts, what say you? Drew has the pedigree. As recent as the end of July he was on an insane tear. If Drew was say, a Toronto Blue Jay and they told him to go all Jose Bautista and try to pull everything over the LF wall, could he have been a different player?

[camisadelgolf]

Drew will always strike out a lot, and he will always have a low batting average. As he gets older, I could see his power developing a bit more, but if he moves to a different team, I think it would need to be a homer-friendly ballpark to see him eclipse his previous power numbers. He's a valuable player, but the most I could ever expect out of him is to be an average center fielder. He'd be one of the best backup center fielders in my book, but if the Reds can find an upgrade in the off-season that makes sense, I think they should do it.

[George Foster]

The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.

Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.

Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."

I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.

After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.

[Tom Servo]

As has been pointed out many times, I think he just doesn't have any pitch recognition skills at all. He seems to just be guessing up there, almost randomly deciding when and when not to swing. And when he does swing, he's not very good at making contact.

I'd be fine with keeping him as an extra outfielder, but I think Heisey is actually better in that role. I'd like to see the Reds get a CF in the offseason and move on from Stubbs.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by George Foster

The latest stats available on Stubbs (reds.com) are through 116 games.

Stubbs has had 1734 ML at-bats. What is most alarming is he's not getting better, he's not remained the same, he's getting worse. Since 2010, he's first full season, all of his hitting stats have gone down. Down in 2011 compaired to 2010, and down in 2012 as compaired to 2011.

Very few ML hitters improve their hitting stats dramatically after 1700 ML at-bats. As the saying goes, "you are what the back of your baseball card says you are."

I really think Stubbs career is at a crossroads. He needs to totally change his approach to hitting, to have a chance to be one of those rare few who can dramatically improve their overall hitting stats. He needs to make a lot more contact and use his speed, he has struck out 563 times.

After 1700 ML at-bats it is unrealistic of us as fans to think he's "going to break out of it" or his "potential" will finally come through. This is "the real" Drew Stubbs. We will see spring training of 2013 if he has made real changes. If not, the Reds might part ways with him and he becomes a Cory Patterson. A different team every other year. His defense will keep him in the majors but not as a star but a bench player. If the Reds had a better option, he would already be on the bench.

I think the bolded part is the exact reason why his stats have gotten worse the last couple years. Stubbs actually has been trying to make more contact and use his speed and that approach has hurt his game tremendously. That approach is never going to work for him and he should in fact do the exact opposite. Trying to make more contact has only resulted in weaker contact, including on the balls that he would have hit harder using his old approach. The weaker contact is leading to more infield singles but fewer line drives, doubles, triples and home runs. To get hits on a regular basis you need to make hard contact -- not just contact.

Here is part of a post I made in another thread.

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

You can make a strong case that his attempts to reduce the strikeouts are the cause of his regression the last couple years. His power is way down, possibly due to attempting to make more contact and hit the ball where it is pitched. If I were him I would go with the Jose Bautista approach (not 'roids) and try to yank everything down the left field line. He hits way too many fly balls to centerfield that could be homers down the line. He is always going to strike out a lot, so he should at least try to maximize his power numbers. He is never going to be a high-contact slap hitter. He is too tall, his arms are too long and his swing is too slow for that. He should swing hard, aim for where the fences are closest and run like a gazelle until they throw him out.

And as Tom Servo mentioned, Stubbs' awful pitch-recognition skills are another reason why he will never be a good contact hitter. The Reds need to quit trying to force him to be a speedy contact hitter because he has tried that and failed. Stubbs needs to work the count, take more walks, swing HARD and pull the ball down the line. Stubbs' body, swing and vision compel him to be a power hitter. Instead of trying to make weak contact and leg out infield hits Stubbs needs to use that speed to turn hard-hit singles into doubles and doubles into triples.

[Superdude]

I can't imagine anyone in this organization advocating the Bautista approach, but it's become pretty clear that Stubbs is a year or so away from becoming bench fodder if something doesn't change. I remember articles from his Dayton days talking about the coaches telling him to choke up on the bat, so the "slap it into play" mentality has been ingrained in him since day one. Would be interesting to go back and see his career unfold in a universe where he's told to rip it Bautista style.

[redsmetz]

I do think Atomic Dumpling has hit on the head and I said this same thing to my daughter when she was in town last weekend. Even though Stubbs said earlier this season (or was it last) that he didn't want to sacrifice his power just to get himself on base more (I think this was around the question of bunting more - a horrible idea for someone who may well be the worst bunter in the history of the game), he clearly is failing at his game precisely for the reasons AD has said.

[Vottomatic]

He plays in a hitter's park. And he's regressing.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him out of baseball in 3 years. He'll be the next Willy Taveras.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

He plays in a hitter's park. And he's regressing.

It wouldn't surprise me to see him out of baseball in 3 years. He'll be the next Willy Taveras.

What evidence do you see to suggest that? I'm not saying Stubbs hasn't regressed--he has--but Willy Taveras bad? I think you forgot just how bad Willy Taveras was.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

What evidence do you see to suggest that? I'm not saying Stubbs hasn't regressed--he has--but Willy Taveras bad? I think you forgot just how bad Willy Taveras was.

.220 hitter that looks clueless at the plate MOST OF THE TIME.

That is the only evidence I need.

[westofyou]

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

.220 hitter that looks clueless at the plate MOST OF THE TIME.

That is the only evidence I need.

Well, his production is far better than Taveras' (not that that's saying much). I feel safe in saying that Stubbs' 2013 will be better than his 2012. He has been bad this year, but he hasn't been that bad. He's having a bad-luck season and is only a good-luck season away from looking like a solid ballplayer.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Well, his production is far better than Taveras' (not that that's saying much). I feel safe in saying that Stubbs' 2013 will be better than his 2012. He has been bad this year, but he hasn't been that bad. He's having a bad-luck season and is only a good-luck season away from looking like a solid ballplayer.

Bad luck season?

[OldRightHander]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Bad luck season?

Pretty bad luck when the pitch doesn't end up where you swing the bat.

[TheNext44]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Bad luck season?

His BABIP its around fifty points lower this year than his career average. It might not be luck but that is too extreme to blame totally on reduced skill.