9.5.12 Phillies @ Reds (the Start of the Didi Gregorius era and the Return of Votto)

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

No way. The last reason for Mike Leake's season is bad luck.

He said "without bashing the metric" of xFIP.

Perhaps you'd like to offer up your own explantion.

But be warned, saying "he's getting bad results because he sucks" is in fact bashing the metric of xFIP.

The initial question really had no answer.

Since xFIP says he's pitching fine, the only two reasons why he's getting poor results would have to be (1) bad luck; and (2) some flaw in xFIP.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

He said "without bashing the metric" of xFIP.

Perhaps you'd like to offer up your own explantion.

But be warned, saying "he's getting bad results because he sucks" is in fact bashing the metric of xFIP.

The initial question really had no answer.

Since xFIP says he's pitching fine, the only two reasons why he's getting poor results would have to be (1) bad luck; and (2) some flaw in xFIP.

It's gotta be a flaw in xFIP then. I don't think that's necessarily bashing it. But if if we're saying, what's the reason for this within the parameters of xFIP, then yeah, you got me.

[kaldaniels]

I don't mind discussing a flaw in xFIP I just didn't want the discussion to devolve as my recent WAR question about Leake did.

[cumberlandreds]

At least they won't be shutout. Bruce with an RBI double.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

I don't mind discussing a flaw in xFIP I just didn't want the discussion to devolve as my recent WAR question about Leake did.

It's gonna be because of the HR/FB discrepancy. To be honest I'm not the biggest fan of xFIP because assuming every pitcher can put up HR/FB numbers in the same ballpark is a pretty hefty assumption to make.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

It's gotta be a flaw in xFIP then. I don't think that's necessarily bashing it. But if if we're saying, what's the reason for this within the parameters of xFIP, then yeah, you got me.

I assume that if you say that xFIP isn't always an accurate reflection of a pitcher's ability, you are disagreeing with it. Homer Bailey (the poster) indicated that Leake's HR/FB rate is higher than the average number that xFIP gives him.

If in fact Leake will give up HR's at that rate his entire career (and that is an accurate reflection of his skill), then that's a flaw in how xFIP is calculated.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I assume that if you say that xFIP isn't always an accurate reflection of a pitcher's ability, you are disagreeing with it. Homer Bailey (the poster) indicated that Leake's HR/FB rate is higher than the average number that xFIP gives him.

If in fact Leake will give up HR's at that rate his entire career (and that is an accurate reflection of his skill), then that's a flaw in how xFIP is calculated.

Yeah I'll agree with that

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I assume that if you say that xFIP isn't always an accurate reflection of a pitcher's ability, you are disagreeing with it. Homer Bailey (the poster) indicated that Leake's HR/FB rate is higher than the average number that xFIP gives him.

If in fact Leake will give up HR's at that rate his entire career (and that is an accurate reflection of his skill), then that's a flaw in how xFIP is calculated.

May be a bit of semantics here Puffy, as I think we're on the same page, but I don't think it's necessarily a flaw in how xFIP is calculated. It could be a flaw in how useful it is, but not calculated. xFIP just tells us what a pitchers FIP would be if he had a league average FB/HR rate. On a player by player basis you can assess how meaningful that actually is, but that's all the number really tells us.

[Wonderful Monds]

I really hope also Cingrani does not debut today because I'd like to watch it. I have a feeling he will though.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

It's gonna be because of the HR/FB discrepancy. To be honest I'm not the biggest fan of xFIP because assuming every pitcher can put up HR/FB numbers in the same ballpark is a pretty hefty assumption to make.

While pitchers HR/FB rates do vary between pitchers with lots of innings pitched in a career (so the small sample size argument doesn't work), they aren't that extreme. Without looking it up, they tend to range between 9-11% IIRC (some of which might be attributable to ball park effects).

If Leake is at 16%, you should expect that to regress somewhat. But he's always had a higher than normal rate.

[KittyDuran]

https://twitter.com/johnfayman/statu...99312095211520

[Tom Servo]

Nice work by Simon so far.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

While pitchers HR/FB rates do vary between pitchers with lots of innings pitched in a career (so the small sample size argument doesn't work), they aren't that extreme. Without looking it up, they tend to range between 9-11% IIRC (some of which might be attributable to ball park effects).

If Leake is at 16%, you should expect that to regress somewhat. But he's always had a higher than normal rate.

Oh yeah I definitely don't think he stays at that rate forever

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by KittyDuran

https://twitter.com/johnfayman/statu...99312095211520

When one doesn't cherry pick he has had a subpar season. No other way to slice it.

[kaldaniels]

The HR rate does make sense as to his struggles. Look at today, 2 HR bringing in 5 runs. Though they were teeing off on him.