9/7/2012 Astros at Reds - Page 5 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Kc61 · 09-07-2012, 08:17 PM

Reds aren't playing very well tonight.

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kc61

Reds aren't playing very well tonight.

They haven't played very well since the calendar turned to September. Hopefully this first week isn't how the rest of the month is going to be.

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:18 PM

No additional damage (outside of a few extra pitches) done as Homer K's the next guy to end the frame.

Brutus · 09-07-2012, 08:19 PM

Strasburg gave up 5 runs on 9 baserunners in his last home start of the season tonight. He lasted only 3 innings against the Marlins. The Nats trail 6-2.

Kc61 · 09-07-2012, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

You avoid homers by giving up fewer fly balls. You don't have a ton of influence over your HR/FB rate. Perhaps a little, but not much. Most guys generally hover around 10-11%.

He's giving up almost 2 grounders for every fly ball. If he were giving up a normal rate of homers to fly balls, that number would be in the range of 13-15 homers which is why his xFIP is 3.71. Latos, despite his strikeouts, has an xFIP of 3.83.

Leake's xFIP is ok because the stat essentially ignores homers allowed by neutralizing them according to a league average rate.

That's fine, it's one metric.

But I maintain that a pitcher like Leake will never survive in the big leagues allowing 23 homers by early September.

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:23 PM

Dominguez with a very Astros-like whiff on a backhand attempt to give Frazier a 1 out single.

Navarro singles.

Kc61 · 09-07-2012, 08:25 PM

I've felt that Altuve is the most effective position player on the Astros. He's out of this ballgame.

So the Reds are playing the Astros, without arguably their best player, at home, with Votto back.

Perhaps the Reds can win under these circumstances.

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:27 PM

Valdez FC, runner out at 2nd. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs for Homer.

Brutus · 09-07-2012, 08:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kc61

Leake's xFIP is ok because the stat essentially ignores homers allowed by neutralizing them according to a league average rate.

That's fine, it's one metric.

But I maintain that a pitcher like Leake will never survive in the big leagues allowing 23 homers by early September.

His SIERA, which accounts for batted ball types, also has him at a 3.90 predicted ERA.

If he keeps up his current K, walk and groundball rates, he would be expected to be a sub-4 pitcher going forward. That will survive for a long career. I don't want to act like all of those homers are a product of bad luck, but a 17% HR/FB rate is not something that would be sustained for a long period of time. I don't think it's ever been done for longer than a season, in fact.

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:29 PM

Homer hits it well but lines out to right.

2-2 after 4.

nate · 09-07-2012, 08:33 PM

I didn't know Heisey was spelled with a "D!"

Tom Servo · 09-07-2012, 08:33 PM

nice diving catch by Heisey

Brutus · 09-07-2012, 08:33 PM

"Stubbs would have got that."

Plus Plus · 09-07-2012, 08:34 PM

What did Bailey yell about after the strikeout there?

lollipopcurve · 09-07-2012, 08:35 PM

I love the fact Heisey dives for balls. That was a superb catch, right off the top of the grass. Stubbs does not make that play, IMO.

09-07-2012, 08:17 PM	#61
Kc61 Member Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,036	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds Reds aren't playing very well tonight.

09-07-2012, 08:18 PM	#63
Tom Servo thirsty and miserable Join Date: May 2006 Location: NJ/NY Posts: 5,608	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds No additional damage (outside of a few extra pitches) done as Homer K's the next guy to end the frame. __________________ "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

09-07-2012, 08:19 PM	#64
Brutus Et tu, Brutus? Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Atlanta, Ga. Posts: 9,080	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds Strasburg gave up 5 runs on 9 baserunners in his last home start of the season tonight. He lasted only 3 innings against the Marlins. The Nats trail 6-2. __________________ "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

09-07-2012, 08:23 PM	#66
Tom Servo thirsty and miserable Join Date: May 2006 Location: NJ/NY Posts: 5,608	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds Dominguez with a very Astros-like whiff on a backhand attempt to give Frazier a 1 out single. Navarro singles. __________________ "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

09-07-2012, 08:25 PM	#67
Kc61 Member Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 11,036	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds I've felt that Altuve is the most effective position player on the Astros. He's out of this ballgame. So the Reds are playing the Astros, without arguably their best player, at home, with Votto back. Perhaps the Reds can win under these circumstances.

09-07-2012, 08:27 PM	#68
Tom Servo thirsty and miserable Join Date: May 2006 Location: NJ/NY Posts: 5,608	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds Valdez FC, runner out at 2nd. 1st and 3rd with 2 outs for Homer. __________________ "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

09-07-2012, 08:29 PM	#70
Tom Servo thirsty and miserable Join Date: May 2006 Location: NJ/NY Posts: 5,608	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds Homer hits it well but lines out to right. 2-2 after 4. __________________ "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

09-07-2012, 08:33 PM	#71
nate High five! Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Anaheim, CA Posts: 6,813	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds I didn't know Heisey was spelled with a "D!" __________________ "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

09-07-2012, 08:33 PM	#72
Tom Servo thirsty and miserable Join Date: May 2006 Location: NJ/NY Posts: 5,608	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds nice diving catch by Heisey __________________ "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

09-07-2012, 08:33 PM	#73
Brutus Et tu, Brutus? Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Atlanta, Ga. Posts: 9,080	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds "Stubbs would have got that." __________________ "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

09-07-2012, 08:35 PM	#75
lollipopcurve Member Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Shelburne Falls, MA Posts: 9,574	Re: 9/7/2012 Astros at Reds I love the fact Heisey dives for balls. That was a superb catch, right off the top of the grass. Stubbs does not make that play, IMO. __________________ "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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