Arroyo

[Vottomatic]

Alot of people, including me, have Arroyo becoming a free agent in 2014.

He has pitched way beyond most people's expectations this season, with 6 quality starts in a row, and the Reds with a win tonight will be 10-2 in his last 12 starts. When healthy in 4 of the last 5 seasons, he's posted a sub-4.00 e.r.a. and a winning record.

If he repeats his 2012 season in 2013, do the Reds consider re-signing him?

I know part of it depends on who the Reds have to replace him. But could this be a situation where Arroyo ends up career in Cincinnati? His pitching style is a Jamie Moyer type of change of pace over Cueto, Latos, Bailey's fastball-lead styles. Obviously, it would depend on the overall payroll too.

[Brutus]

I think that's too far to look down the road. It depends on way too many factors, Chapman for one.

Regardless, I will say I was skeptical about the extension (though supportive of the reasoning for doing it) but he has absolutely been worth it these last two seasons. He's made a believer out of me and I'm glad he's going to be a part of the Reds' playoff rotation.

[kaldaniels]

Like with Rolen's 2012, I think the Reds should be glad they came out somewhat ahead and just move on. If there is absolutely no one to replace him in 2014 then we can talk, but yes, way too early for that.

But I will say Arroyo is one of a handful of guys who could be effective up until the age of 40 or so.

[Vottomatic]

My keyboard cut out while I was typing my opening post. If nothing else, I want to give Bronson props for a great comeback season.

I believe Bronson would be 37 in 2014. But I agree with you........he can probably pitch to 40.

If the Reds have the need to sign him, I could see them doing 1 year deals if they go that route. With Cingrani and Corcino hopefully future majore leaguers, this discussion may be moot.

[Tadasimha]

I think the Reds think Mike Leake is going to be their change of pace guy in between the bigger arms.

If Leake doesn't have a decent season next year, though, they might look at offering Arroyo a one year deal. How Corcino and Cingrani develop will probably effect the decisions as well. Chapman should stay the dominant closer for the rest of his time with the Reds in my opinion.

[Danny Serafini]

Has he really been beyond expectations? His numbers are pretty much in line with what he did in 2009 and 2010. I was always willing to give him a pass on 2011, because having had mono myself I know just how badly that disease will kick your butt. I was surprised he pitched as well as he did last year. What he's done this year is pretty much who he is, and I'd imagine he'll be able to do it for a couple more years.

That said, it's simply too early to worry about extending him.

[HokieRed]

Right-handed Jamie Moyer?

[mdccclxix]

Bronson's 2012 is rivaling his 2006 where he struck out 184 and his ERA was very low. The strikeouts aren't there (and are never coming back it seems), but his ERA is 3.66 and his K/BB ratio is the best of his career at 3.61. I'm pretty amazed by his comeback. It shows me he absolutely knows how to get himself ready to compete. Last year he told everyone he was going to focus only on baseball so he could right the ship. Goodness, has he succeeded. Really happy for him, and like others have said, he's made me a believer.

[RedsMan3203]

Arroyo could pitch another 5 or 6 years effectively... I think it depends on what is in the works, but I think he'll be back...

Also, I think if he doesn't sign with the Reds, he'll retire.

Lets hope for another 4 or 5 productive years from Arroyo and we all can look back and say... That was one of the best trades the Reds ever made!

[DGullett35]

Honestly if the postseason started today my rotation would be Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo. He deserves it IMO and is on fire here in the last couple months it seems. Depending on if we are home or on the road id like to have Arroyo start one of the away games esp. if we have to go out west. You could do any combo of the 3 it wouldnt matter to me.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Bronson's 2012 is rivaling his 2006 where he struck out 184 and his ERA was very low. The strikeouts aren't there (and are never coming back it seems), but his ERA is 3.66 and his K/BB ratio is the best of his career at 3.61. I'm pretty amazed by his comeback. It shows me he absolutely knows how to get himself ready to compete. Last year he told everyone he was going to focus only on baseball so he could right the ship. Goodness, has he succeeded. Really happy for him, and like others have said, he's made me a believer.

Arroyo deserves enormous credit for taking his craft so seriously and working so hard last off season. 2011 was a disaster for him, perhaps due to injury and illness, but he led the NL in earned runs and homers allowed. He worked hard and now is as good as ever.

Since he joined the Reds in 2006 Arroyo has pitched 240.2 innings, 210.2 innings, 200.0 innings, 220.1 innings, 215.2 innings, 199 innings, and this year 177 innings so far. Amazing numbers for this day and age.

[redsfandan]

Originally Posted by DGullett35

Honestly if the postseason started today my rotation would be Cueto, Latos, and Arroyo. He deserves it IMO and is on fire here in the last couple months it seems. Depending on if we are home or on the road id like to have Arroyo start one of the away games esp. if we have to go out west. You could do any combo of the 3 it wouldnt matter to me.

I agree 100%.

[mdccclxix]

Also, as shocked as I was they extended his contract I am now equally intrigued by how well the people side of this has worked out. The Walt-Dusty-Bronson trust factor has been a real success and I don't think any of them have regretted or been disappointed in the performance on the field, unless you asked if they wanted to do better (of course). In short, the numbers said otherwise, but I think it was way more than that. There is a huge quotient of baseball feel in this organization that has been fueling it's success.

[medford]

Originally Posted by Danny Serafini

Has he really been beyond expectations? His numbers are pretty much in line with what he did in 2009 and 2010. I was always willing to give him a pass on 2011, because having had mono myself I know just how badly that disease will kick your butt. I was surprised he pitched as well as he did last year. What he's done this year is pretty much who he is, and I'd imagine he'll be able to do it for a couple more years.

That said, it's simply too early to worry about extending him.

I think he's exceeded the expectations of many b/c so many viewed him as "pitcher lucky" due to his lack of strikeouts and lower velocity (ie he didn't control the outcome in a sabermetric way). I think many thought he was nothing more than a 4.5-5.5 era innings eater for the life of the extenstion.

Regarding his "bounce back season" we have to remember that he had Valley fever coming out of ST last season. I've heard Chris Welsh mention it more than once w/ various players playing in Arizona and how it can zap the energy out of a player for several months.

Bronson is a guy who doesn't rely on velocity, seemingly keeps both himself and his arm in great shape, and has avoided any sort of major injury thru his career. I could easily see him pitching into his mid 40s, if he wants as an innings eater starter at the back of a rotation and sounding board for other younger pitchers (perhaps still in HS) in someone's rotation 5+ seasons from now.

As far as the Reds, I'd keep my options open. There is no need to extend him this offseason. Bronson seems like the kind of guy who's a no BS type of guy, I think if Walt was honest with him, Bronson wouldn't take it personally. he has to realize that w/ the extensions of Votto, Phillips, Cueto & Bruce that the Reds are would love to have part of their rotation staffed by guys making the league minimum in Cingrani, Stephenson, Corcino, etc...The Reds should have a better idea what kind of chances Corcino & Cingrani have to make and remain in the rotation in 2014 prior to the end of Bronson's tenure.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by medford

I think he's exceeded the expectations of many b/c so many viewed him as "pitcher lucky" due to his lack of strikeouts and lower velocity (ie he didn't control the outcome in a sabermetric way). I think many thought he was nothing more than a 4.5-5.5 era innings eater for the life of the extenstion.

Some of us went the other way too. A pitcher can do just fine if he sustains a K:BB ratio north of 2 --Last year he suffered what amounted to bad HR/FB "luck" exacerbated by a lower K% and lower GB/FB ratio. More balls in play than usual. More of those were flyballs than usual. And more of those flyballs were homers than usual.

I put quotes around luck because it was almost assuredly not just randomness -- at least the lower K and groundball rates.

I expected the HR/FB to come back down to normal ranges, dropping his ERA back in to the mid 4's. But he's gone and returned to his groundballing ways while also upping his Ks and lowering his BBs. His 3.6 K:BB ratio is the best of his career. I think that walk rate is the biggest thing going relatively unnoticed. He's got the 4th lowest walk rate in the majors.

When you don't give out free passes and batted balls are grounders more often than not, you're likely going to be pretty effective -- especially when you have the infield defense we do.