9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs - Page 6 - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

Tom Servo · 09-19-2012, 10:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

From what?

From himself.

WVRedsFan · 09-19-2012, 10:08 PM

Apparenty they're going to leave Leake in. Very dangerous. Very.

George Foster · 09-19-2012, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.

This is true...the last Leake start you mentioned this. If Leake pitches bad, it's normally from the beginning.

Tom Servo · 09-19-2012, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.

Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though?

Kc61 · 09-19-2012, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

I'm still not sure what you're getting at. OPS and wOBA both take into account both OBP and slugging. Sure, OBP carries slightly more weight than does slugging, but that's accounted for in wOBA and his career wOBA against RHP is .349. That's very, very good. The average CF in the majors is less than .330.

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

WVRedsFan · 09-19-2012, 10:10 PM

Heisey DP. Good grief.

George Foster · 09-19-2012, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

From what?

From the bench...should be playing this series...no real reason why he's not in the lineup other than Dusty being Dusty with the veterans. DiDi had a great series in Miami especially Sunday and with Cozart coming back this weekend the Cubs series would of been a great time to see what he could do with multiple starts. We all know what Valdez can do.

Tony Cloninger · 09-19-2012, 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kc61

Nonsense.

Clemente lifetime OBP .359.
Griffey Sr. lifetime OBP .359.
Berra lifetime OBP .348.
Guerrero lifetime OBP .379.

Even Concepcion, a shortstop known for great defense, .322.

Chris Heisey's lifetime OBP is .316. His plate discipline is the reason. I want an entirely different type of hitter for the Reds' CF.

I meant in regards to their ability to take pitches. Clemente and Berra's OBP were not mainly derived from walks at all....and they did not meet many pitches they did not like.

Brutus · 09-19-2012, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though?

You could do a heck of a lot worse than Leake. Heck, Leake would have been the ace of several of the Reds' staffs the last 10 years.

But the point is that some folks here are under the impression that Leake falls off a cliff late in the games. The numbers don't suggest that at all, especially relative to how most pitchers fare later in games.

Interesting anecdote about Leake's homers though...

He's given up 17.8 percent of his flyballs as home runs. In the past 10 years of all starting pitchers in any season, only five guys have given up a larger percentage.

All five, by the way, went on to give up a percentage at least 5 points lower the following season. That suggests that Leake has likely been a little snake bitten in that he's really not giving up many flyballs, but an inordinate number are leaving the yard.

Brutus · 09-19-2012, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kc61

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

These formulas pretty closely resemble how runs are scored. Not sure why you're totally willing to ignore slugging for two dozen more OBP points.

I'd love to have a .350 OBP guy too. But if he slugs .300, that's not an upgrade.

WVRedsFan · 09-19-2012, 10:18 PM

Arredondo on the mound

Kc61 · 09-19-2012, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger

I meant in regards to their ability to take pitches. Clemente and Berra's OBP were not mainly derived from walks at all....and they did not meet many pitches they did not like.

Actually, while neither Clemente nor Berra walked that much, Heisey's walk rate is lower than both of them.

And frankly to mention Heisey in the same sentence as these great hitters is kind of a joke. Yes, some guys can be great hitters not walking that much.

I happen to think Heisey is not one of them.

So while you are looking for Heisey to turn into Roberto Clemente, I'd prefer a centerfielder with good plate discipline who gets on base frequently.

The Operator · 09-19-2012, 10:18 PM

Oh boy, Jose on the hill.

George Foster · 09-19-2012, 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brutus

These formulas pretty closely resemble how runs are scored. Not sure why you're totally willing to ignore slugging for two dozen more OBP points.

I'd love to have a .350 OBP guy too. But if he slugs .300, that's not an upgrade.

Ludwick got off to such a slow start that Heisey had a chance to take LF away from him. Heisey did not take advantage of that situation, Ludwick got red hot this summer and the rest is history.

I hope to God Ludwick's groin is OK...his bat was heating up again.

Tony Cloninger · 09-19-2012, 10:19 PM

I agree KC that i would rather have someone else than these 2......but i also would rather have Heisey in there over Stubbs more.

Let Stubbs try playing LF after sitting on the bench all night and see how fresh he is.

His speed makes up for a lot of his misjudging of balls.

09-19-2012, 10:08 PM	#77
WVRedsFan Lime in da Coconut Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Rainelle, WV Posts: 7,711	Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs Apparenty they're going to leave Leake in. Very dangerous. Very. __________________ www.ris-news.com "The price of seeking to force our beliefs on others is that someday they might force their beliefs on us." Mario Cuomo "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5." -Beano Cook

09-19-2012, 10:10 PM	#81
WVRedsFan Lime in da Coconut Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Rainelle, WV Posts: 7,711	Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs Heisey DP. Good grief. __________________ www.ris-news.com "The price of seeking to force our beliefs on others is that someday they might force their beliefs on us." Mario Cuomo "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5." -Beano Cook

09-19-2012, 10:18 PM	#86
WVRedsFan Lime in da Coconut Join Date: Jul 2000 Location: Rainelle, WV Posts: 7,711	Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs Arredondo on the mound __________________ www.ris-news.com "The price of seeking to force our beliefs on others is that someday they might force their beliefs on us." Mario Cuomo "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5." -Beano Cook

09-19-2012, 10:19 PM	#90
Tony Cloninger Member Join Date: Mar 2001 Posts: 5,098	Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs I agree KC that i would rather have someone else than these 2......but i also would rather have Heisey in there over Stubbs more. Let Stubbs try playing LF after sitting on the bench all night and see how fresh he is. His speed makes up for a lot of his misjudging of balls.

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