Set your playoff rotation

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

You people are all outsmarting yourselves.

Far be it for me to defend Homer Bailey, but has anyone noticed that all three of his September starts in Great American Ballpark have been good ones? Two of them have come against teams fighting to get into the playoffs. I don't think GAB is in his head.

The only reason you start Homer Bailey in game 1 or 2 is if you think he gives you the best chance of winning game 1 or 2. That's not the case. The Reds have two starters that are significantly better than their other 3. You absolutely want those 2 guys going in the first two games to assure that you don't come back to Cincinnati down 0-2.

But let me make the case for a 3 man rotation in a 5-game series.

Imagine it's game 4. Either the Reds would be down 2-1 or up 2-1. Who would you rather have for those games? Cueto and Latos, albeit a bit tired? or our second/third tier starters?

This of course will all be moot if the Reds slip to the #3 seed.

I doubt that the Reds suddenly start asking Cueto and Latos to pitch on 3 days rest. Th epalyoff history on pitchers doing that in the last 10-15 years is not kind.

Having said that, the thought that Homer can't pitch at home is likely a small sample size one, as it's the first year it has occured. And, as you say, his September starts at home have been fine.

In any event, the Reds will go with the following order:

Cueto/Latos
Arroyo
Latos/Cueto
Bailey

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by George Foster

you are what the back of your baseball card says you are! Bailey splits are crazy better on the road. Pac Bell is a huge ball park which could help his mistake pitches...like tonight againt Gonzolas.sp?

We have beat Cain twice this year. Pitch our hot pitcher, Latos game one. Pitch Bailey against Lincecum.

If Cueto pitches good his next start, start him game 1 and Latos game 3. However Bailey needs to be game #2 starter. He's been pitching great and he will be in a big ball park.

I think it was Francona who pointed out that lately, Bailey has been lights out in GABP. I'm not sure ERA splits for the entire year are a level of analysis that quickly provides the conclusion that "Bailey is a better pitcher on the road, so he should pitch game 1 or game 2 in the first playoff series."

[Kc61]

The Reds JUST changed their rotation to separate Cueto and Latos. They moved Cueto up so now the order is Cueto, Arroyo, Latos.

I don't think they did this for no reason.

Pretty obvious to me they intend Cueto, Arroyo, Latos in the playoffs. Bailey for game four if they use four starters.

Personally, if I could start from scratch, I would have Latos pitch game 1, no matter who the opponent is. He's been the most consistent pitcher down the stretch.

So I'd probably go with Latos, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey.

[Kc61]

News flash from Fay's blog. Leake is being skipped tomorrow. Cueto, Arroyo, Latos against the Brewers.

Fay then says that Cueto will make (his final) regular season start on Sunday at Pittsburgh. That's September 30.

Presumably, that means Arroyo opens at St. Louis October 1, Latos October 2, Bailey October 3.

So, what does this tell us?

It tells us Latos will NOT be ready to pitch the first game if it's on Saturday the 6th. Reds obviously intend Latos to pitch game three of the NLDS.

Increasingly clear it is Cueto, Arroyo, Latos and Bailey in that order in the NLDS.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

News flash from Fay's blog. Leake is being skipped tomorrow. Cueto, Arroyo, Latos against the Brewers.

Fay then says that Cueto will make (his final) regular season start on Sunday at Pittsburgh. That's October 2.

Presumably, that means Arroyo opens at St. Louis October 3, Latos October 4, Bailey October 5.

So, what does this tell us?

It tells us Latos will NOT be ready to pitch the first game if it's on Saturday the 6th. Reds obviously intend Latos to pitch game three of the NLDS.

Increasingly clear it is Cueto, Arroyo, Latos and Bailey in that order in the NLDS.

You've got your dates a little off. The St. Louis series runs October 1-3. If Latos pitches on October 2 (a Tuesday), he'd have Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday as normal rest meaning he'd pitch game two of the NLDS (Sunday). So if Latos is pitching the second game of the St. Louis series, it does not mean he's pitching third.

[Vottomatic]

Game 1: Latos
Game 2: Bailey (3rd best road e.r.a. in mlb)
Game 3: Arroyo
Game 4: Cueto (I have zero confidence in Cueto right now. I think something is wrong with him)
Game 5: Latos

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by 757690

Statistics play out well over a whole season. In the playoffs, you get one shot. Make it your best, and Cueto and Latos are the Reds best, significantly better than any other Reds pitchers.

You'd still be better served to play the percentages. You only get one shot, but wouldn't you want that one shot to be the one that gives you the best chance?

Bailey might not be a better option than Cueto on the road, but Cueto is definitely a better option than Bailey in Cincinnati. That's incentive enough right there to make the change IMHO.

Personally, I'd rather Leake pitch than Bailey if a fourth starter in Cincinnati is going to be used, as it appears it will be. But the best option for the Reds is utilizing Bailey in San Francisco in my most honest opinion, as I think it increases the chances of production out of the fourth spot.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus

You've got your dates a little off. The St. Louis series runs October 1-3. If Latos pitches on October 2 (a Tuesday), he'd have Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday as normal rest meaning he'd pitch game two of the NLDS (Sunday). So if Latos is pitching the second game of the St. Louis series, it does not mean he's pitching third.

I edited the post to fix the dates, but I reach a different conclusion than you do as to Game 2.

First off, Latos working Tuesday means he can't work Game 1 if the Reds start Saturday. So that eliminates that possibility, Latos working Game 1.

As for Game 2, presumably Sunday, Latos only works THAT game if Arroyo pitches out of turn. I find it very unlikely the Reds are setting it up for Arroyo to pitch in the playoffs on that much EXTRA rest.

No, I think this schedule makes it quite clear what the Reds have in mind, Cueto, Arroyo, Latos.

The Reds HAD Cueto and Latos back to back, and they changed it to put Arroyo in between. I see no reason to think they intend to change it back.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I edited the post to fix the dates, but I reach a different conclusion than you do as to Game 2.

First off, Latos working Tuesday means he can't work Game 1 if the Reds start Saturday. So that eliminates that possibility, Latos working Game 1.

As for Game 2, presumably Sunday, Latos only works THAT game if Arroyo pitches out of turn. I find it very unlikely the Reds are setting it up for Arroyo to pitch in the playoffs on that much EXTRA rest.

No, I think this schedule makes it quite clear what the Reds have in mind, Cueto, Arroyo, Latos.

The Reds HAD Cueto and Latos back to back, and they changed it to put Arroyo in between. I see no reason to think they intend to change it back.

There could be dozens of explanations for why they did it that way. I don't think anyone should reach a conclusion based on how they set it up. Maybe they don't think Latos pitches well on six days rest? Maybe to set the rotation up this way, they felt more comfortable moving Arroyo up a day to push back Bailey?

There's nothing definitive about this. I don't see any reason why you should conclude that because Arroyo is pitching a day before Latos to end the regular season, it automatically means that's the Reds' preference for the LDS. It might be their preference, but you can't know that based on this... not without knowing their rationale for stacking it up this way.

[Brutus]

I was looking through some splits by the current staff and how they've done against the three possible teams (San Fran, Atlanta and St. Louis). The numbers Latos has against San Francisco really do jump off the page:

vs. SFO (74.0 IP, 2.19 ERA, 55 K, 12 BB, 0.89 WHIP, .529 OPSA)
at SFO (43.0 IP, 1.67 ERA, 36 K, 5 BB, 0.72 WHIP, .487 OPSA)

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus

There could be dozens of explanations for why they did it that way. I don't think anyone should reach a conclusion based on how they set it up. Maybe they don't think Latos pitches well on six days rest? Maybe to set the rotation up this way, they felt more comfortable moving Arroyo up a day to push back Bailey?

There's nothing definitive about this. I don't see any reason why you should conclude that because Arroyo is pitching a day before Latos to end the regular season, it automatically means that's the Reds' preference for the LDS. It might be their preference, but you can't know that based on this... not without knowing their rationale for stacking it up this way.

A few weeks before the playoffs the Reds moved their rotation around.

They decided rather than pitching Cueto and Latos back to back, they would stick Arroyo in between.

I think it's a fair assumption they thought it was the most effective rotation going forward. Including the next set of meaningful games, the NLDS.

Generally when a team moves the rotation around before the playoffs, they do so looking toward the oncoming playoffs.

And it makes sense - in case of a Game 1 loss, the Reds might think the veteran Arroyo will handle the Game 2 pressure better than the others. But whatever the reason, it's a fair assumption the Reds made the switch with the playoffs in mind.

They might change it again. But I doubt it.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Brutus

You'd still be better served to play the percentages. You only get one shot, but wouldn't you want that one shot to be the one that gives you the best chance?

Bailey might not be a better option than Cueto on the road, but Cueto is definitely a better option than Bailey in Cincinnati. That's incentive enough right there to make the change IMHO.

Personally, I'd rather Leake pitch than Bailey if a fourth starter in Cincinnati is going to be used, as it appears it will be. But the best option for the Reds is utilizing Bailey in San Francisco in my most honest opinion, as I think it increases the chances of production out of the fourth spot.

When I'm playing poker, I play the percentages, except when there's a huge pot worth more than what I coud win a weeks worth of play, or I'm playing a deciding hand in a tournament. In those case, the stats mean nothing. I have to go with what I think will win that hand, right then, not what will win it 51 times out of hundred instead of 49 times out of hundred.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by 757690

When I'm playing poker, I play the percentages, except when there's a huge pot worth more than what I coud win a weeks worth of play, or I'm playing a deciding hand in a tournament. In those case, the stats mean nothing. I have to go with what I think will win that hand, right then, not what will win it 51 times out of hundred instead of 49 times out of hundred.

Ignore whether or not Bailey is a better option than Cueto in San Francisco. That's at best a coin flip, 51/49 as you suggest.

You don't think that Cueto (3.50 lifetime ERA in GABP) is a significant probability increase over Bailey (5.13 lifetime ERA in GABP) for a start in Cincinnati? That doesn't seem like a coin flip to me. That doesn't guarantee results, by any means, but I'd still rather play probability.

I don't think starting Bailey over Cueto is an increase in San Francisco. But that's not the issue. The issue is that if Bailey is going to be the fourth starter over Leake, then I'd say the Reds are greatly better off getting Bailey's start out of the way on the road where they have Arroyo and Cueto pitching games three and four in Cincinnati.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Ignore whether or not Bailey is a better option than Cueto in San Francisco. That's at best a coin flip, 51/49 as you suggest.

You don't think that Cueto (3.50 lifetime ERA in GABP) is a significant probability increase over Bailey (5.13 lifetime ERA in GABP) for a start in Cincinnati? That doesn't seem like a coin flip to me. That doesn't guarantee results, by any means, but I'd still rather play probability.

I don't think starting Bailey over Cueto is an increase in San Francisco. But that's not the issue. The issue is that if Bailey is going to be the fourth starter over Leake, then I'd say the Reds are greatly better off getting Bailey's start out of the way on the road where they have Arroyo and Cueto pitching games three and four in Cincinnati.

Cueto vs. Bailey ain't no coin flip, I don't care where they're pitching.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Kc61

A few weeks before the playoffs the Reds moved their rotation around.

They decided rather than pitching Cueto and Latos back to back, they would stick Arroyo in between.

I think it's a fair assumption they thought it was the most effective rotation going forward. Including the next set of meaningful games, the NLDS.

Generally when a team moves the rotation around before the playoffs, they do so looking toward the oncoming playoffs.

And it makes sense - in case of a Game 1 loss, the Reds might think the veteran Arroyo will handle the Game 2 pressure better than the others. But whatever the reason, it's a fair assumption the Reds made the switch with the playoffs in mind.

They might change it again. But I doubt it.

I still don't see how the order has anything to do with what order the Reds intend to pitch them in the playoffs. The switch is about getting guys rested, ready and having flexibility. I doubt it is any pronouncement of what their playoff order will be. They only need to make it to where certain guys can pitch in a certain order. They don't have to establish said order just yet.