So...is anyone else worried about the Reds?

[durl]

The division is clinched, everybody seems healthy, and the playoffs are almost upon us. Everybody in Redsville is happy...myself included. That being said, is anyone else concerned about the momentum that the Reds are taking into the post-season?

In September, the Reds have scored 70 Runs (with 4 games remaining) which is the 3rd WORST in MLB. In August, they ranked 8th with 142 Runs. That's a SERIOUS drop in production. In July, the Reds ranked 11th with 116.

OPS is also horrible in September: .636 which is 3rd worst in MLB. In August, they were at .777 (6th in MLB) and in July they were .760 (ranked 10th).

Pitching looks pretty solid, with a 3.24 ERA in September, a 3.78 in August, and a 3.03 in July (4th in MLB that month).

I realize that the Reds are using some new guys here and there and that could account for some of the drop-off. Still, I don't like seeing the offensive nose-dive we've seen right when they need to be playing their best. Call me paranoid (thank you) but it seems as though the firepower that pushed this team to the division title has begun to flame out.

[dougdirt]

Wilson Valdez is to blame.

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by durl

The division is clinched, everybody seems healthy, and the playoffs are almost upon us. Everybody in Redsville is happy...myself included. That being said, is anyone else concerned about the momentum that the Reds are taking into the post-season?

In September, the Reds have scored 70 Runs (with 4 games remaining) which is the 3rd WORST in MLB. In August, they ranked 8th with 142 Runs. That's a SERIOUS drop in production. In July, the Reds ranked 11th with 116.

OPS is also horrible in September: .636 which is 3rd worst in MLB. In August, they were at .777 (6th in MLB) and in July they were .760 (ranked 10th).

Pitching looks pretty solid, with a 3.24 ERA in September, a 3.78 in August, and a 3.03 in July (4th in MLB that month).

I realize that the Reds are using some new guys here and there and that could account for some of the drop-off. Still, I don't like seeing the offensive nose-dive we've seen right when they need to be playing their best. Call me paranoid (thank you) but it seems as though the firepower that pushed this team to the division title has begun to flame out.

I wish they were playing better but keep in mind in 1990 they were 15-16 from 9/1 on.

[RedsMan3203]

Still winning at a .540 clip....

There has been some slumps, some injury's and just simple time off.... I'm sure all of that accounts for the drop in production.

[vic715]

The regular lineup hasn't been on the field together most of September as Cozart and Ludwick have been out a lot.No worries here.

[westofyou]

It's baseball, everything about being a fan is teetering on the edge of despair and glee.

I've only never worried about one team, the 1976 Reds.

Everything else is clenched teeth and migraines.

Best game in the world

[AtomicDumpling]

Yes I am worried about the Reds, mainly because anything can happen in a 5 game series.

[Vottomatic]

It's not the wins/losses or hitting stats that bother me. It's the eyetest. I don't see many quality at-bats right now. Overanxious hitters swinging at alot of bad pitches. I'd feel better if I felt the slump was just some bad luck on hit balls.

7 more games. Hopefully the team starts to heat up here soon.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by westofyou

It's baseball, everything about being a fan is teetering on the edge of despair and glee.

I've only never worried about one team, the 1976 Reds.

Everything else is clenched teeth and migraines.

Best game in the world

Well do us a favor, stop worrying about this team like you did that team and we can get the same results.

[jojo]

The Reds have got to be considered favorites. Really the only potential pumpkins on the roster are Ludwick, Frazier and Broxton. I guess you worry about Chapman having some trouble but for the most part, the Reds haven't gotten here because a bunch of key guys are playing way over their heads.

This is probably their best shot at winning the world series based upon the true talent of the roster since 1999.

[kaldaniels]

I imagine they have a 40 percent chance of losing in the first round. But so does every other team at minimum.

[powersackers]

2 out of 5 games this season the Reds score 3 runs or less in a game.

So in the NLDS there's a better than 2/5 chance we're only scoring a max of three runs (better because pitching will be better than average)

In the NLCS and WS that'd be a 3/7 chance.

Must continue to have tippy top shape SP and RP to have a chance with those numbers working against you. This team flat out can't score. This formula worked to the tune of 93+ wins. But in a short series just be prepared... or worried if you so choose.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by powersackers

2 out of 5 games this team scores 3 runs or less in a game.

So in the NLDS there's a better than 2/5 chance we're only scoring a max of three runs (better because pitching will be better than average)

In the NLCS and WS that'd be a 3/7 chance.

Must continue to have tippy top shape SP and RP to have a chance with those numbers working against you. This team flat out can't score. This formula worked to the tune of 93+ wins. But in a short series just be prepared... or worried if you so choose.

Winning games is a function of run scoring and run prevention. Don't cherry pick the negatives.

[powersackers]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Winning games is a function of run scoring and run prevention. Don't cherry pick the negatives.

The negatives are reasons to worry. The positives are reasons to have faith. This thread isn't called "So... is anyone else not worried about the Reds?"

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by powersackers

The negatives are reasons to worry. The positives are reasons to have faith. This thread isn't called "So... is anyone else not worried about the Reds?"

So the sum total of run prevention and run scoring has you worried, just to be clear?