Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

All the more confusing. Suppose we do go with 3 guys in the rotation, that means we are saying it is better to have Bronson Arroyo pitch twice than to have Mat Latos pitch twice. On no planet does that make sense.

Actually 3 man..

Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Cueto, Arroyo

4 man:

Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Homer, Cueto

You get Arroyo pitching instead of Homer.
But I get your point.. if you are going with a 3 man rotation, it kind of makes sense for the first round to have Latos go #2... However, the benefit of the 3 man rotation as shown.. If the first round goes to 5 games, you start the second round with Latos (assuming the Reds survive game 5 of round 1).

Also, if the Reds go to a 3 man rotation, they have the option of starting Homer in game 5 as a "surprise'. That idea makes some sense. Dusty might like the opposition not seeing Arroyo twice. If Homer is rested and ready to go, he might go in game 5.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by harangatang

I. I understand the premise of starting Bailey on the road, but I don't think Arroyo is a bad choice either. It's nice having pitching depth.

Yep, Homer pitches better on the road, but Arroyo does too.
Honestly, if you look at Arroyo vs Homer's numbers this year, it's close to a push.
Is it wrong to assume that Arroyo will give you a better chance of 6 IP of keeping the game close? Not necessarily, IMO. If you look at their entire body of work, Bronson has a more solid career..
If Bronson gets in trouble, they can pull him fast, put in someone like Simon/Lecure, and then get Homer warmed up to eat the innings.. not a bad plan at all.

[mattfeet]

From everything I've read and seen posted on here, Homer doesn't just "warm up" quickly enough to be effective in the bullpen, even as an innings eater. To be frank, our bullpen is good enough without the necessity of putting a Leake or Bailey in there.

Matt

[DGullett35]

I like going Cueto, Arroyo, then Latos. Cueto has been our horse all year and our "Ace". He has to go game 1. Arroyo pitching in AT&T is a good thing. He will keep the ball in the park. One could argue that Arroyo has been our 2nd most consistent pitcher behind Cueto. Then you have Latos starting at home. He seems to pitch his absolute best when the crowd is roaring and behind him. Game 1 in Cincy will be a madhouse and I think Latos will pitch a gem. I agree 100%with Dusty and Bryan on this. They know better than any of us what should be done. They are in the clubhouse everyday and Bryan Price has done nothing to make me question any decision of his. Hes got to be one of the best pitching coaches in the bigs. I do think we go 4 deep. Homer pitching at home concerns me a little but if your throwing the ball great it doesnt matter where you pitch. I know stats dont lie but you cannot base a decision entirely on a home or an away game IMO. Hopefully we sweep and all this is wasted convo.

[redsfan30]

I am still wondering if this could be subject to change based on the seed the Reds get. If they wind up being the number 1, Homer's scheduled spot in the rotation would be Monday....game 2. If they get the 2 seed, game 2 is Sunday and Homer isn't going to pitch on short rest.

I still could see a change being made based on seed.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by mattfeet

From everything I've read and seen posted on here, Homer doesn't just "warm up" quickly enough to be effective in the bullpen, even as an innings eater. To be frank, our bullpen is good enough without the necessity of putting a Leake or Bailey in there.
Matt

While that's true in the regular season, probably less true in the playoffs where the breaks between innings are longer and the every game adds on 30 minutes.

Plus if Arroyo had to come out in the 2nd or 3rd inning, you'd probably be looking at Lecure for an inning + before Homer had to go in to eat innings 5-8 or something.

That's a worst case scenario of course. If he's not going to start at all in the series, he's probably best left off the roster.

[RedsMan3203]

If Homer goes out tonight and gets shelled, who changes their mind on their decisions?

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mattfeet

From everything I've read and seen posted on here, Homer doesn't just "warm up" quickly enough to be effective in the bullpen, even as an innings eater. To be frank, our bullpen is good enough without the necessity of putting a Leake or Bailey in there.

Matt

If a starter gets in trouble in the 3rd inning, they can put LeCure/Simon in there as the immediate bandaid.. Homer or Leake could have two full innings (or more) to warm up, if needed. I guess I don't see "warm up time" as an issue.

[DGullett35]

Originally Posted by RedsMan3203

If Homer goes out tonight and gets shelled, who changes their mind on their decisions?

Im guessing Homer goes no more than 5 innings tonight. Dusty may want to get the relievers hes taking with him into the NLDS an inning or so. Id pitch Chappy again tonight and maybe even Broxton, Marshall, and Hoover(He better make it over Ondrusek). Heck Simon and Arrendondo may even get a little action.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsMan3203

If Homer goes out tonight and gets shelled, who changes their mind on their decisions?

Not me. I trust Homer more than I trust Arroyo. Call me crazy if you want.

[traderumor]

Homer's no-hitter should have absolutely no impact on this decision. I'm surprised that some are throwing that red herring out there.

[mattfeet]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

If a starter gets in trouble in the 3rd inning, they can put LeCure/Simon in there as the immediate bandaid.. Homer or Leake could have two full innings (or more) to warm up, if needed. I guess I don't see "warm up time" as an issue.

Good point.

[powersackers]

Guy named Josh just called MLB radio complaining about Arroyo even pitching in the playoffs at all. They pretty much agreed with him. I am 100% on board with Cueto, Arroyo, Latos. Bailey 4th if needed. If will work if we can score 4 a game.

[mbgrayson]

Latest from Sheldon on Twitter:

Mark Sheldon‏@m_sheldon
Baker says Bailey will start Game 4 of NLDS vs Giants #reds

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

Latest from Sheldon on Twitter:

Puzzling to some extent. I mean, I'm glad but does this mean that Cueto would pitch a hypothetical game 5? Bailey is obviously better on the road than he is at home. I'd much rather flip him with Arroyo's spot, if that's what Dusty is set on.