Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

[reds44]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Puzzling to some extent. I mean, I'm glad but does this mean that Cueto would pitch a hypothetical game 5? Bailey is obviously better on the road than he is at home. I'd much rather flip him with Arroyo's spot, if that's what Dusty is set on.

I'm not sure how it's puzzling. It keeps everyone on normal rest.

[corkedbat]

It's not just about not starting Bailey in Game Two, what about Latos? Latos is a Giant killer in their park.

[redsfaninbsg]

I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been stated but, Homer Bailey is one of just 12 pitchers in the NL to throw over 200 innings and have an ERA of 3.70 or better. Of those nine pitchers he is the only one on a playoff team that is not in his team's rotation

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by reds44

I'm not sure how it's puzzling. It keeps everyone on normal rest.

It's puzzling because Bailey hasn't been so great at home. Would have rather seem him pitch game 2 in San Fran and either skipped last night's start or have him go out after 5 innings.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

It's not just about not starting Bailey in Game Two, what about Latos? Latos is a Giant killer in their park.

Latos has a 3.18 ERA in GABP this year. Bottom line is he's pretty good in any park.

It's pretty obvious Dusty wanted to split up Arroyo and Bailey because Arroyo gives up HRs in bunches and Bailey struggles at home. He didn't want to set up his rotation where he runs the risk of Arroyo/Bailey pitching back to back games at home all postseason. Now, if you want to make an argument for Bailey in game two over Arroyo, that's fair, but I don't have a problem with Dusty going with the vet in game 2.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Puzzling to some extent. I mean, I'm glad but does this mean that Cueto would pitch a hypothetical game 5?

Why would pitching Bailey on normal rest vs. pitching Cueto on 3 days rest be puzzling?

And yes, it means Cueto pitches game #5. Who else? Leake would be the only other available starter with enough rest, assuming he makes the roster.

[CesarGeronimo]

Originally Posted by mbgrayson

Latest from Sheldon on Twitter:

If Dusty starts Bailey at home, that's incompetence.

Homer Bailey - 2012

Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52

Does anybody remember what Homer's recent quote was about Great American Ballpark and how small it is? Unless I misunderstood it or am remembering incorrectly, he sarcastically made it clear that he really doesn't like to pitch there and thinks the size of the place is a joke.

He should be starting a game on the road.

[Vottomatic]

I haven't read any of this thread but this page, but here's my opinion based on stats I've read.

Latos supposedly has an e.r.a. at San Fran this year under 1.00.
Bailey supposdely has one of the top 5 road e.r.a.'s in all of MLB, and has been pitching very well lately.

I think game 1 should be Latos and game 2 (on the road) should be Bailey.

Not sure what Dusty has decided since I haven't read his decision yet.

[Bumstead]

I'm just surprised that they would even think about going with a 3 man rotation. All 4 pitchers have been quite good this season. I would like to see Bailey pitching in SF, but going Cueto and then Latos is hard to argue. Of course that leads to Arroyo and Bailey at home but it's not like SF is full of power hitters...

Bum

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by redsfaninbsg

I haven't read the entire thread so this may have already been stated but, Homer Bailey is one of just 12 pitchers in the NL to throw over 200 innings and have an ERA of 3.70 or better. Of those nine pitchers he is the only one on a playoff team that is not in his team's rotation

So the Reds had 3 of the 12 pitchers in baseball with 200 innings and an ERA under 3.70? AWESOME. Arroyo almost made it four.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo

If Dusty starts Bailey at home, that's incompetence.

Homer Bailey - 2012

Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52

Does anybody remember what Homer's recent quote was about Great American Ballpark and how small it is? Unless I misunderstood it or am remembering incorrectly, he sarcastically made it clear that he really doesn't like to pitch there and thinks the size of the place is a joke.

He should be starting a game on the road.

Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results:

	K%	BB	HR/FB	BABIP
Home:	17.8	6.3	18.4%	.322
Road:	20.7	5.6	 4.5%	.259

Yes, there's some GABP effect there. There's also an awful lot of randomness.

[klw]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So the Reds had 3 of the 12 pitchers in baseball with 200 innings and an ERA under 3.70? AWESOME. Arroyo almost made it four.

Well, if I am counting correctly they have 4 of the 14 in the NL under 3.75 and 200+ innings. 4 of 23 in MLB.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitchin...alse/minip/200

[The Voice of IH]

Is my math right?

I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65

I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84

In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)

In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).

Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.

So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.

Right?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by The Voice of IH

Is my math right?

I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65

I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84

In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)

In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).

Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.

So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.

Right?

Right. (I did not check your math)

[Kc61]

Look at the bigger picture.

Cueto is the team's best pitcher. He is going to pitch Game 1 and be available for a later game in the series.

Arroyo's big flaw, throughout his career, is homers allowed. So pitching him in the big stadium makes sense. Bailey would also be a good choice. Only one can go.

Keep in mind that Arroyo is the experienced guy and if the Reds lose Game 1, I think pitching Bronson makes a lot of sense. He's a cool customer in tight spots.

Latos for Game three is obvious. He had a tremendous year, can handle GABP, and with Cueto/Arroyo in SF Mat is the logical Game 3 pitcher.

Game four? Probably Homer. Not a perfect fit, but he can be on a short leash, the bullpen is fully available. And if the Reds are behind there's a chance we get Cueto back starting or even relieving in an emergency.

There are other ways to do it, but this makes some sense to me.