Dusty hints at playoff rotation... 3 man rotation, No Bailey

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by The Voice of IH

Is my math right?

I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65

I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84

In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)

In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).

Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.

So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.

Right?

You are right only if you are a big believer in W-L record and small sample sizes and ignore things like BABIP, HR/FB rate, K-rate, W-rate etc.

[camisadelgolf]

Maybe there's a concern about overworking Bailey. Here are his innings pitched per season:

2012 208.0
2011 162.0
2010 132.0
2009 203.0
2008 147.2
2007 120.2
2006 138.2

As you can see, he's already at a career high. The last time he pitched nearly this much, he battled a slew of arm problems the following season. On top of that, he has pitched significantly more than he did the two years prior. Also, he's pitching better than he ever has over an extended period of time, so wouldn't that imply he could be due for a regression pretty soon? I just don't think he's as much of a slam-dunk choice over the alternatives as people are claiming.

[CesarGeronimo]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future results:

	K%	BB	HR/FB	BABIP
Home:	17.8	6.3	18.4%	.322
Road:	20.7	5.6	 4.5%	.259

Yes, there's some GABP effect there. There's also an awful lot of randomness.

Homer Bailey, asked why he''s been so much better away from GABP this season: "I’m not pitching in a Little League park on the road."

So, despite Home's obvious bad attitude about pitching at home, the Reds should use a precious playoff game to attempt to teach him that what he has actually experienced in his much poorer home game performances is actually random variability.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo

Homer Bailey, asked why he''s been so much better away from GABP this season: "I’m not pitching in a Little League park on the road."

So, despite Home's obvious bad attitude about pitching at home, the Reds should use a precious playoff game to attempt to teach him that what he has actually experienced in his much poorer home game performances is actually random variability.

That's the beauty of randomness. You don't need to teach anyone about it, it happens randomly.

[The Voice of IH]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

You are right only if you are a big believer in W-L record and small sample sizes and ignore things like BABIP, HR/FB rate, K-rate, W-rate etc.

I do believe in riding a hot hand. And All of the things listed above are for determining one thing, how many runs will the pitcher allow.

Bailey has done a superior job, on the road and more recently, in both things.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why would pitching Bailey on normal rest vs. pitching Cueto on 3 days rest be puzzling?

And yes, it means Cueto pitches game #5. Who else? Leake would be the only other available starter with enough rest, assuming he makes the roster.

Well, it's obviously too late now, but Bailey could've been skipped altogether last night in a meaningless game and gone out and pitched game 2 in San Fran, since he's much better on the road.

I would have gone...

Latos - Game 1
Bailey - Game 2
Cueto - Game 3
Latos - Game 4
Arroyo/Bailey - Game 5 if necessary

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Well, it's obviously too late now, but Bailey could've been skipped altogether last night in a meaningless game and gone out and pitched game 2 in San Fran, since he's much better on the road.

I would have gone...

Latos - Game 1
Bailey - Game 2
Cueto - Game 3
Latos - Game 4
Arroyo/Bailey - Game 5 if necessary

You would have pitched Latos on 3 days rest notwithstanding that he has never done so and the history since the 1990's of pitchers doing so is very poor? And then pitch Bailey (who many are saying shouldn't pitch at home) also on 3 days rest?

If you are going to pitch Bailey 2nd on the raod, then you have to go with Arroyo in the 4th game, and your first game starter in game #5.

With your rotation, assuming Arroyo goes #5, you have used the same pitchers as Baker, only gotten Latos pitching with 3 days rest. Or if Bailey starts #5, you've managed to get an extra Bailey start at home on 3 days rest.

I can't see how that is an improvement.

There is only two viable scenarios, depending on whether you want/mind Bailey pitching on the road.

Cueto/Latos
Bailey
Latos/Cueto
Arroyo
Cueto/Latos.

Cueto/Latos
Arroyo
Latos/Cueto
Bailey
Cueto/Latos

It's clear all year that Baker wants Arroyo pitching between Cueto and Latos.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo

If Dusty starts Bailey at home, that's incompetence.

Homer Bailey - 2012

Home G 17, record 4-8, IP 99.1, ERA 5.16, H 131, HRs 21, OPS .874, sOPS+ 145
Away G 16, record 9-2, IP 108.2, ERA 2.32, H 85, HRs 5, OPS .559, sOPS+ 52
.

Consider the flip side though..
If it goes to 4 games, the Giants will probably throw their #4 guy out there.
That's either the lefty Zito or the struggling Linecum against Homer. (Am I missing another option?)
I like those odds very much, even if the game is at the GAB.

[dougdirt]

From Lance McAllister on twitter

Jon Miller, voice Giants, just told Eddie and Tracy that he thinks the Giants get Latos in Game 2 if #Reds lose Game 1.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

From Lance McAllister on twitter

Jon Miller, voice Giants, just told Eddie and Tracy that he thinks the Giants get Latos in Game 2 if #Reds lose Game 1.

Could easily be.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

From Lance McAllister on twitter

Jon Miller, voice Giants, just told Eddie and Tracy that he thinks the Giants get Latos in Game 2 if #Reds lose Game 1.

Going home down 0-2 would pretty much be fatal.

Going into game 2 down 0-1 with Bumgarner vs Arroyo is not a matchup that favors the Reds.

So like Ed, I could see it as well.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

You would have pitched Latos on 3 days rest notwithstanding that he has never done so and the history since the 1990's of pitchers doing so is very poor? And then pitch Bailey (who many are saying shouldn't pitch at home) also on 3 days rest?

If you are going to pitch Bailey 2nd on the raod, then you have to go with Arroyo in the 4th game, and your first game starter in game #5.

With your rotation, assuming Arroyo goes #5, you have used the same pitchers as Baker, only gotten Latos pitching with 3 days rest. Or if Bailey starts #5, you've managed to get an extra Bailey start at home on 3 days rest.

I can't see how that is an improvement.

There is only two viable scenarios, depending on whether you want/mind Bailey pitching on the road.

Cueto/Latos
Bailey
Latos/Cueto
Arroyo
Cueto/Latos.

Cueto/Latos
Arroyo
Latos/Cueto
Bailey
Cueto/Latos

It's clear all year that Baker wants Arroyo pitching between Cueto and Latos.

It of course assumes there is a game 4 and 5, but anyway. Yep, I'd do it in a short series where the first 2 games are on the road against one of the great home pitching staffs. Bailey is clearly better on the road and I like Latos pitching in SF as well. Even though Bailey is in unchartered waters in terms of innings pitch, he's not a spring chicken here. Latos is a little dicier, but I have faith he could do it in 1 series. I would maybe considering throwing Arroyo out game 4 and Latos game 5, to give him that extra day of rest. It would also setup Cueto, potentially, to start the next series should the Reds make it.

But the idea here is to hope by throwing out the best guys first that you'll end the series quicker and not have to go to game 5.

If what Jon Miller set forth is true, that the Reds would put out Latos in game 2 if they lose game 1, I could be okay with that rotation as well.

[defender]

I think mixing in a different style of starter, had an impact. While pitching Bailey in GAB may not be ideal, I think game 2 was the best spot for Arroyo.

Basing your playoff rotation around your #4 starters inability to pitch at home is not sound strategy. Homer is a good pitcher. I think coming home with a two game lead is a good spot for him. About as little pressure as you can have in a playoff start and a home crowd to back him up.

[klw]

Kind of funny that prior to the series the biggest concerns were opening with two on the road, Bailey at home, and whether the offense would awaken. Well home field certainly was no advantage and Bailey was great. Oh well.