Baseball America: Southern League Top 20 Prospects (4 Reds)

[dougdirt]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2614161.html

5. Billy Hamilton
11. Tony Cingrani
15. Didi Gregorius
17. Daniel Corcino

Nothing surprising from the scouting reports. With Hamilton it was questions about his defense, but notes he is making the move to CF. Cingrani has questions about whether he can remain a starter. Gregorius is likely a bottom of the order hitter. Corcino needs to work on his control to reach his ceiling. Stuff that we all probably already knew. Chat is at 1:30, so if anything comes up Reds wise, I will try to remember to throw it in here.

[Scrap Irony]

Interesting that Corcino is six spots behind Cingrani in the AA pecking order (as BA is notoriously tools-leaning) and that questions about Hamilton's bat and weight can finally be put behind us. Scouts insist Hamilton's defense will soon be elite, Gold Glove level in CF. If the only questions are about his defense, he'll soon be a top ten prospect in all of baseball, if he's not there already. (At least according to BA.)

[dougdirt]

While I am sure some think the questions about Hamilton's bat are behind him.... I just can't get on board with that yet. I feel a lot more confident than I used to. But I simply don't trust guys with 20 power until they go out and get it done in the Majors.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

While I am sure some think the questions about Hamilton's bat are behind him.... I just can't get on board with that yet. I feel a lot more confident than I used to. But I simply don't trust guys with 20 power until they go out and get it done in the Majors.

It's difficult for many of us to get beyond our notions of prospects. I get what you're saying, but see Hamilton as someone with 35 power, not 20. He has doubles power and his batting practice stroke shows a bit of doubles/ triples gapper line drives. (This also shows in his minor league number, but those are quickly disregarded here, for the most part.) He won't ever hit double figures in homers, but, with his speed, doesn't need to. He has enough power to hit it over an OFer's head if he cheats in. With those legs and his continued ability to put bat on ball, that's more than enough for Hamilton to go .275/.350/.375 at the major league level. Add in 80 stolen bases (against 15 CS and 5 PO), and you've got a player that will add 3.5 WAR or so to his team. (That assumes he works out as a well above average CF.) His ceiling is much more than that-- I'd insist he could put up a few years of .300/.400/.425 with triple digit SBs at an 85% success rate with Gold Glove defense in CF.

On a completely different but related topic, how about Corcino and Cingrani, doug? IIRC, you were pretty adamant about Corcino being the better prospect. Any reaction there?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

It's difficult for many of us to get beyond our notions of prospects. I get what you're saying, but see Hamilton as someone with 35 power, not 20. He has doubles power and his batting practice stroke shows a bit of doubles/ triples gapper line drives. (This also shows in his minor league number, but those are quickly disregarded here, for the most part.) He won't ever hit double figures in homers, but, with his speed, doesn't need to. He has enough power to hit it over an OFer's head if he cheats in. With those legs and his continued ability to put bat on ball, that's more than enough for Hamilton to go .275/.350/.375 at the major league level. Add in 80 stolen bases (against 15 CS and 5 PO), and you've got a player that will add 3.5 WAR or so to his team. (That assumes he works out as a well above average CF.) His ceiling is much more than that-- I'd insist he could put up a few years of .300/.400/.425 with triple digit SBs at an 85% success rate with Gold Glove defense in CF.

On a completely different but related topic, how about Corcino and Cingrani, doug? IIRC, you were pretty adamant about Corcino being the better prospect. Any reaction there?

There is no way that Hamilton has 35 power. The guy has 4 home runs since being drafted that have gone over the wall. He is an every bit of 20 power player if there ever was one in the pro ranks. Hamilton really doesn't have the power to hit it over the outfielders head if he cheats in all that often. Sure, every now and again he will run into one. Miguel Perez once hit a baseball 450 feet too. He also carried a career minor league SLG% of .341. But that is the exception and not the rule.

I agree with you in his ceiling being the guy you described. I could also see him turning into a .260/.300/.350 hitter because you can strike him out and he has absolutely no power.

I still think Corcino > Cingrani. Ceilings are similar, but I don't doubt for a second that Corcino can start and I do have some doubts about Cingrani still.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

There is no way that Hamilton has 35 power.

Hamilton's AA slugging percentage of .383 is above the Southern League average (.376). Hamilton's A+ slugging percentage (.439) is also better than league average (.427).

OTOH, Dee Gordon-- a true 20 power guy-- was 35 points below AA Southern League average in slugging in 2010. He was 38 points below league average in the PCL the next season. In fact, aside from the cup of coffee he had in his first professional season, Gordon's been below average in every season he's played in terms of slugging. Gordon's speed is, at least according to you, very close to that of Hamilton, if not equal, so speed isn't the issue.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Hamilton's AA slugging percentage of .383 is above the Southern League average (.376). Hamilton's A+ slugging percentage (.439) is also better than league average (.427).

OTOH, Dee Gordon-- a true 20 power guy-- was 35 points below AA Southern League average in slugging in 2010. He was 38 points below league average in the PCL the next season. In fact, aside from the cup of coffee he had in his first professional season, Gordon's been below average in every season he's played in terms of slugging. Gordon's speed is, at least according to you, very close to that of Hamilton, if not equal, so speed isn't the issue.

Hamilton also hit over .300. His IsoP was .097. League IsoP was .124. In Bakersfield his IsoP was .116. League IsoP was .154. Hamilton played in a very power friendly ballpark too, where power to each outfield spot was incredible (Pensacola) or pretty good (Bakersfield). Dee Gordon has less power. Doesn't really change that Hamilton is a 20 guy. There are a lot of 20 power guys. Someone has to be the worst of the 20 power guys, but just because someone is worse doesn't mean the other guys aren't 20's.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

There is no way that Hamilton has 35 power. The guy has 4 home runs since being drafted that have gone over the wall. He is an every bit of 20 power player if there ever was one in the pro ranks.

HR aren't an adequate measure of power for guys below 50 on the scouting scale. Hamilton has a Isolated SLG of 100 for his minor league career, which isn't great, but it is certainly not the bottom of the barrel. He hits a decent amount of doubles and oodles of triples to make up for his lack of HR pop. 38 extra base hits this year speak to that fact.

It doesn't matter if he can't hit a ball over an OFers head as long as he can sting the ball hard enough to shoot it past a defender and turn what would have been a single into a double or triple. If OFers play too far in, they greatly increase the chances of Billy smacking one past them down the lines or in the gaps.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

HR aren't an adequate measure of power for guys below 50 on the scouting scale. Hamilton has a Isolated SLG of 100 for his minor league career, which isn't great, but it is certainly not the bottom of the barrel. He hits a decent amount of doubles and oodles of triples to make up for his lack of HR pop. 38 extra base hits this year speak to that fact.

It doesn't matter if he can't hit a ball over an OFers head as long as he can sting the ball hard enough to shoot it past a defender and turn what would have been a single into a double or triple. If OFers play too far in, they greatly increase the chances of Billy smacking one past them down the lines or in the gaps.

If Billy Hamilton hit 10 baseballs that made it to the wall this year, including balls that rolled there, I would be surprised. It isn't that he just doesn't hit home runs. He can't get the ball to the wall often. He is simply so fast that he can triple on balls in the gaps that don't even make the warning track.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Hamilton also hit over .300. His IsoP was .097. League IsoP was .124. In Bakersfield his IsoP was .116. League IsoP was .154.

Assuming the scouting scale is somewhat normalized, then hitting close to league average would put him closer to a 50 rather than a 20. I don't think it is outrageous to suggest his power is halfway between 'average' [50] and 'abysmal' [20].

It would also mean there are NOT a lot of guys with 20 power. Assuming that a 20 on the scale is two standard deviations away from the mean, that would leave you with around 2.5% of the guys in the league with 20 power.

The only way Hamilton is a 20 power guy is if the scouting scales are skewed to the point where they are damn near meaningless.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If Billy Hamilton hit 10 baseballs that made it to the wall this year, including balls that rolled there, I would be surprised. It isn't that he just doesn't hit home runs. He can't get the ball to the wall often. He is simply so fast that he can triple on balls in the gaps that don't even make the warning track.

Why does it matter if they make it to the wall?

He is clearly stinging the ball hard enough to make defenders pay when they cheat in on him. If Billy can consistently hit the ball hard enough to force OF to run backwards when they play him in, that is enough. If he gets their momentum going towards the wall rather than towards home plate, that is all he needs to do. If they play him at regular depth and turn him into a singles hitter, that is OK too, since he'll just steal 2B anyway.

[dougdirt]

I believe that from a pure power standpoint, that Hamilton is one of the 2.5% at the bottom, for Major Leaguers. Without question.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I believe that from a pure power standpoint, that Hamilton is one of the 2.5% at the bottom, for Major Leaguers. Without question.

Every number in his career so far insists you're wrong, doug.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Every number in his career so far insists you're wrong, doug.

He has 4 home runs that have gone over the fence in 1711 professional at bats. For Major League comparisons here is the list of guys with a higher PA/HR rate in the Majors over the last 4 years with at least 500 PA's.

Ben Revere
Emmanuel Burriss
Luis Castillo
Alex Cora
Chris Getz
Jamey Carroll
Angel Sanchez
Juan Pierre
Ruben Tejada
Dee Gordon
Jason Kendall

After those guys, there is a decent sized gap to the next guy. Hamilton fits into that group with the next player before another decent sized gap to the next group.

So let's just say that group of 13 players, including Hamilton and Alberto Gonzalez, they make up the bottom 2.8% of players with at least 500 PA.

[klw]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He has 4 home runs that have gone over the fence in 1711 professional at bats.

Yeah but those fences in Bakersfield are really deep so he should get some credit for that. I think only that field in Williamsport has deeper fences.

http://www.minorleagueballparks.com/saml_ca.html