Phillips' Boner (Fred Merkle)

[Danny Serafini]

Originally Posted by Brutus

And Phillips had a better chance of increasing his team's chance of scoring a run by trying to make that play, probably, then he did of getting thrown out at third.

That's how I look at it. He had a relatively good chance of picking up that base, so it's worth the risk. It just didn't work out. That happens. Even when something is a 95% chance of working it still means you'll have the occasional failure, that doesn't mean you should never take that chance in order to avoid that 5%.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Except the universe where baseball research has shown that a team increases its chances of scoring nearly 25% by having a runner at third as opposed to a runner at second. That universe wins you more games than not.

Can you tell me what the odds for these scenarios?

Runner on 3rd, no out
Runner on 2nd, no out
No runner on, one out.

Now tell me if it's worth the risk to take third? Also, please tell me if its worth the risk to take third, when they have you DEAD, and you're depending on an error from one of the best catchers in the game.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

What are the chances Posey makes the play? Because that's what you have to weigh against the marginal gain of being on 3rd instead of 2nd.

Making the 1st out at 3rd is like punting on 4th & 1 from your opponents 40.

Obviously there's a ton of blame to go around in those 3 games and you'd rather have errors of aggression than ones of carelessness. But that one hurt.

[Homer Bailey]

Originally Posted by Danny Serafini

I've always thought that was a stupid "rule" myself. As if it's OK to make the second out at 3rd base or it's better to make the last out at 2nd base. That's just silliness.

It makes a lot more sense to try to get to 3rd with one out, than it does with zero or two outs. If you're on 2nd with no outs, you have a pretty good chance that the hitter will advance you to third, or a good chance that any of the 3 subsequent hitters will combine to drive you in. Getting to third with one out makes is a heck of a lot easier to score than it does from second. Getting to third with two outs means you would only likely score on an infield hit, and its often not worth the risk to run yourself out of an inning.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

What are the chances Posey makes the play? Because that's what you have to weigh against the marginal gain of being on 3rd instead of 2nd.

Making the 1st out at 3rd is like punting on 4th & 1 from your opponents 40.

Obviously there's a ton of blame to go around in those 3 games and you'd rather have errors of aggression than ones of carelessness. But that one hurt.

Phillips took a reckless risk. Posey threw him out and it wasn't even a close play. It wasn't good baserunning. It was hyper aggressive baserunning.The results were fairly disastrous.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Homer Bailey

Can you tell me what the odds for these scenarios?

Runner on 3rd, no out
Runner on 2nd, no out
No runner on, one out.

Now tell me if it's worth the risk to take third? Also, please tell me if its worth the risk to take third, when they have you DEAD, and you're depending on an error from one of the best catchers in the game.

They only had Phillips dead because the ball took a perfect carom back to Posey and he made a great throw. If any of those two things don't happen, Phillips is safe at third.

The way I see it, they had probably an 80% chance of advancing their odds of scoring by about 25% (from 60 to just under 85%) and thusly about a 20% chance of losing roughly 40% (from 60% down to 20%) off their chances.

To me, that's worth the risk.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

Good Lord he got thrown out by 20 feet. Sandoval was standing there waiting for Brandon to slide into the tag. Posey had all day to throw him out and didn't even have to rush. Just a monumentally stupid baserunning mistake.

[Cedric]

The best teams in any sport have players that trust their teammates and play the best within their own capabilities. The Reds don't have that right now.

[jojo]

Phillips cost the Reds an expected .8 runs by his failed base running snafu. If successful, he would've only gained the Reds a .25 run advantage based upon the run expectancy matrix.

Wasn't worth the gamble. This was Brandon being Brandon.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

Good Lord he got thrown out by 20 feet. Sandoval was standing there waiting for Brandon to slide into the tag. Posey had all day to throw him out and didn't even have to rush. Just a monumentally stupid baserunning mistake.

Hyperbole much? He was thrown out by about a second or two. Again, if the ball takes a different carom, that second elapses enough for Phillips to slide in safely.

Twenty feet is one of the biggest exaggerations I've ever seen on this board.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Hyperbole much? He was thrown out by about a second or two. Again, if the ball takes a different carom, that second elapses enough for Phillips to slide in safely.

Twenty feet is one of the biggest exaggerations I've ever seen on this board.

It was at least 20 feet despite the Giants taking their time getting the ball to Sandoval. He was dead meat and everyone in the stadium knew it.

[757690]

Forget the odds, the play was right in front of him and he was out by a mile. You decide whether or not to go based on the odds, I mean should players carry an abacus around with them on the base paths? You decide to go based on whether or not you think you are going to make it. Bad, bad base running.

That said, in a five game series, there is always plenty of blame to throw around. I never understood the fascination of isolating one play and blaming a whole series on it. I could easily make a few dozen threads saying the same thing about other plays this series.

[Kc61]

When your team has an offense that can only score 8 runs in three home games in the playoffs, and where one first inning baserunning error becomes so critical, then I think the place to look is at the offense as a whole.

It was an aggressive play. It didn't work out. The Reds should have scored another run somewhere along the line against Vogelsong and Co.

I remember the Dodgers with Koufax and Drysdale. They didn't score much but the pitching was so great they got away with it. The Reds pitching was very good this year, but it's not Koufax and Drysdale, the offense has to do better.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

It was at least 20 feet despite the Giants taking their time getting the ball to Sandoval. He was dead meat and everyone in the stadium knew it.

Nobody knew it until Posey threw the ball to third. That's the point. It wasn't so obvious until the ball caromed back to him cleanly and he delivered a nice throw. Only then was it obvious Phillips was going to be out. But it was not remotely by 20 feet.

It's easy for fans to play the game of risk management with the benefit of hindsight. Regardless, that is not a play that is made more times than not in that situation.

I stand by my belief that it was about 80% chance of gaining 25% chance of scoring versus the 20% of losing 40. I think that's a risk you take.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Nobody knew it until Posey threw the ball to third. That's the point. It wasn't so obvious until the ball caromed back to him cleanly and he delivered a nice throw. Only then was it obvious Phillips was going to be out. But it was not remotely by 20 feet.

It's easy for fans to play the game of risk management with the benefit of hindsight. Regardless, that is not a play that is made more times than not in that situation.

I stand by my belief that it was about 80% chance of gaining 25% chance of scoring versus the 20% of losing 40. I think that's a risk you take.

He had about a 5% chance of making it to third safely. The only way he makes it is if Posey makes an errant throw.

Considering he was out by a mile at third he was still close enough to second base to return to the bag when he saw the ball bounce back to Posey. Posey had all day to carefully retrieve the ball and casually throw to third and still get Brandon by 20 feet.