Phillips' Boner (Fred Merkle)

[klw]

I only just saw the play on video. Phillips biggest mistake in the play was probably that he had slowed going around second and then sped up again. If he wanted to go, he had to maintain full speed. Otherwise great throw by Posey who was clutch this series.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?co...66995&c_id=mlb


Edit: Rewatching it I can't tell if he had to slow due to the angle of turning the bag but I don't think so. I think he surprised Posey wasn't to the ball yet.

[Tom Servo]

I just don't get it. It was the first out! What difference does it make that he singled and was then thrown out going to third or if he flew out to center field?

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

I just don't get it. It was the first out! What difference does it make that he singled and was then thrown out going to third or if he flew out to center field?

Because he was already safely at 2nd base.

At the point Brandon safely reached 2nd base with no outs the Reds had a run expectancy in the inning of 1.172 runs. This means based on the historical results of real MLB games, teams in that exact situation scored an average of 1.172 runs in the rest of the inning.

By getting thrown out at third, Brandon caused the Reds' run expectancy to drop to 0.289 runs because the Reds were left in a base-out state of nobody on base with one out. His blunder cost the Reds 0.883 runs on average.

If Brandon had successfully reached 3rd base it would have raised the run expectancy to 1.444 runs. This is a relatively small increase of 0.272 runs. This small increase in run expectancy is not nearly enough to justify the risk of losing 0.883 runs unless you are 90% certain that you can make it. Essentially, Brandon gambled 0.883 runs in an attempt to gain 0.272 runs. That is why Phillips' decision to go for third was such a big strategic mistake.

To recap the Phillips situation:

Runner on 2nd, zero outs: 1.172 expected runs. (the starting point)
Runner on 3rd, zero outs: 1.444 expected runs. (if he had made it to 3rd)
No runners on, one out: 0.289 expected runs. (after he got thrown out)

Now, to answer the question of why it matters how many outs there are ("Don't make the first out at 3rd base), the reason is because the run expectancy difference is not as severe when there is already one out. The damage to your run expectancy is much stronger if you make the first out at 3rd base than if you make the second out at 3rd base.

If there had been one out when Phillips' play occurred here are the run expectancies:

Runner on 2nd, one out: 0.714 expected runs.
Runner on 3rd, one out: 0.984 expected runs.
No runners on, two outs: 0.111 expected runs.

So in that case the Reds would have gained 0.27 runs if Brandon made it to 3rd safely, pretty much the same as the earlier situation. But if he had gotten thrown out it would have cost the Reds 0.603 expected runs (compared to the 0.883 runs earlier), so the damage is still bad but not as bad. It would still have been a dumb decision to go for third on that play, but the damage would have been less severe.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

Because he was already safely at 2nd base.

At the point Brandon safely reached 2nd base with no outs the Reds had a run expectancy in the inning of 1.172 runs. This means based on the historical results of real MLB games, teams in that exact situation scored an average of 1.172 runs in the rest of the inning.

By getting thrown out at third, Brandon caused the Reds run expectancy to drop to 0.289 runs because the Reds were left in a base-out state of nobody on base with one out. His blunder cost the Reds 0.883 runs on average.

If Brandon had successfully reached 3rd base it would have raised the run expectancy to 1.444 runs. This is a relatively small increase of 0.272 runs. This small increase in run expectancy is not nearly enough to justify the risk of losing 0.883 runs unless you are 90% certain that you can make it. Essentially, Brandon gambled 0.883 runs in an attempt to gain 0.272 runs. That is why Phillips' decision to go for third was such a big strategic mistake.

To recap the Phillips situation:

Runner on 2nd, zero outs: 1.172 expected runs.
Runner on 3rd, zero outs: 1.444 expected runs.
No runners on, one out: 0.289 expected runs.

Now, to answer the question of why it matters how many outs there are ("Don't make the first out at 3rd base), the reason is because the run expectancy difference is not as severe when there is already one out. The damage to your run expectancy is much stronger if you make the first out at 3rd base than if you make the second out at 3rd base.

If there had been one out when Phillips' play occurred here are the run expectancies:

Runner on 2nd, one out: 0.714 expected runs.
Runner on 3rd, one out: 0.984 expected runs.
No runners on, two outs: 0.111 expected runs.

So in that case the Reds would have gained 0.27 runs if Brandon made it to 3rd safely, pretty much the same as the earlier situation. But if he had gotten thrown out it would have cost the Reds 0.603 expected runs (compared to the 0.883 runs earlier), so the damage is still bad but not as bad. It would still have been a dumb decision to go for third on that play, but the damage would have been less severe.

Pretty much. It wasn't a smart decision. The only way it made sense is if Phillips was guaranteed to make it. Obviously he thought he was....clearly he misjudged the situation by a considerable margin. His reasoning was that everything would have to be perfect. But it wasn't a difficult play for Posey to make.

The reality is that it was reckless aggression which largely is Branon's MO. Brandon is fast. Rolen is a great base runner. It's a big difference.

[Always Red]

Blame?

It's a team game; plenty of blame to go around. Win and lose as a team.

[RedFanAlways1966]

I stated that I am a not a big believer in "all things stay the same if this happened differently", but that inning:

* BP single.
>> Thrown out during Cozart's AB.
* Cozart walks.
* Votto F8.
* Ludwick singles, Cozart to 2nd.
* Bruce singles, Cozart scores.
* Rolen K.

Stats and percentages of this/that aside, do they score at least 2 runs in your opinion that inning if BP stops at 2nd (love to see some answers to this question)? Do the Giants get more than 1 hit and 1 run in 9 innings? We all know where this goes. 2-1 final and waiting for Cards-Nats to finish. I am not a fortune teller, but I feel it as fair to present this side as it is to say X% if this/that. And I guess this is why it still bothers me. I'd be bothered by a physical error too, but the mental error is hard to remove from my brain. Yes, it was a mental error (call it aggressive, it was, but it was a mental error and BP's reaction seemed to show he knew it). Rolen's E5 was a physical error and might not have happened if the mental error was not made.

Cardinal rule (not all caps!). 2nd base and no outs. Especially with the heart of the lineup coming up. The heart of the lineup delivered. The team lost a run... one that turned out to be HUGE (caps intended).

[RedFanAlways1966]

Originally Posted by Always Red

Blame?

It's a team game; plenty of blame to go around. Win and lose as a team.

Totally agree! I wanted to start this thread after game 3, but had reservations. Part of the reason was what you stated. But I feel it is OK to mention that play. Hindsight is 20-20, but right now that play seems significant (it did right after it happened to me, but hoped it would not matter). As it turned out that might be the most pivotal play in the series (yes, my opinion).

[Always Red]

Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966

Totally agree! I wanted to start this thread after game 3, but had reservations. Part of the reason was what you stated. But I feel it is OK to mention that play. Hindsight is 20-20, but right now that play seems significant (it did right after it happened to me, but hoped it would not matter). As it turned out that might be the most pivotal play in the series (yes, my opinion).

I agree, it was an extremely pivotal play.

But it was the 1st inning of the middle game of the series. Had BP stayed at 2nd, and we turn back the Universe Clock, who knows what would have happened? Pitchers pitch differently, catchers call differently, and position players position differently (coaching) based upon what is happening here and now.

The Reds have taken the extra base for 3 years now, when Scott Rolen challenged them to do so, and they have thrived and flourished doing so, and playing more aggressive baseball.

This one bit them in the butt, obviously.

[CrackerJack]

Without BP they don't stand a chance of winning even one game, the way he played, so it seems a bit silly to single out one mistake that "may" have cost a run. The real problem is that they only scored one run when their own pitchers only gave up 2.

I'm not sure what Dusty's base-running rules are with vets, but they've been doing this crap all season, and it came back to hurt them. It's disappointing that such things never change with him, great guy, but a bit of a stubborn old mule that may not be the best thing for a young team with challenges.

[Tony Cloninger]

Originally Posted by Brutus

What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.

You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.

Taking 2nd was fine....taking 3rd was getting greedy and not needed. But it was the 1st inning....and no one figured or thought they were going to be no hit for the rest of the game.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Not scoring a single run, or even getting a runner to third, in 9 innings while Homer Bailey and the bullpen was lights freaking out was the boner that ensured the Reds would not be advancing to the NLCS.

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

The Reds pitchers (Bailey, Marshall, Chapman) were excellent in Game 3, Vogelsong and the Giants were middling. Affeldt is the only one who pitched very well in it.

[oneupper]

Since we're talking about that inning, that Rolen K was all on the ump. Still has me upset. Very low and inside.
Give me robo-ump.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by oneupper

Since we're talking about that inning, that Rolen K was all on the ump. Still has me upset. Very low and inside.
Give me robo-ump.

I want robo-ump too. Way too many games have their outcomes changed by poor umpiring. Most of these mistakes could be gotten rid of with some quick and easy technology.

[757690]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Why is it OK for the Reds pitchers to shut down the Giants, but not OK for the Giant's pitchers to shut down the Reds?

I think most people forgot that most on this board were scared about playing the Giants. They won 94 games and had a very strong pitching staff. It was a tough battle between two excellent teams that could have gone either way many times.